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Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

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Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#491
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what automation is - it's one of the leading causes of increased productivity in the last half century.

Money printing became decoupled from anything real in 1971. See here what happened to the correlation between productivity and labour income after this https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Purchasing power has been consistent. https://i.redd.it/7qqhlk5i48l61.png

The graph uses average hourly wages which does not include overtime, bonuses, shift premiums, and employer benefits. It also doesn't account for all workers.

https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/es/07...

total compensation tracks pretty well.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#492
post #106
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give people more money, and you will see the price of everything rise without seeing the amount of stuff they buy go up. In the specific case of COVID in the UK, people have been given money to replace the money they would have earned. The people don't have extra money. The system hasn't changed except for the fact that the money is coming from the government instead of the their employer.

People have been given money to replace the amount they would've earned, but the work they would've done hasn't happened . All of the goods and services they would've produced no longer exist. The government tried to make up for the fact that large amounts of the real economy were shuttered by printing money, with predictable results.

> with predictable results

Care to elaborate, because *if* there is going to be a fallout from these massive stimulus packages, it certainly doesn't feel predictable to me.

Indeed, we all like to think doomsday scenario, and covid-19 have trained our brains to think the unlikely is likely.. but it's not even obvious there is going to be a fallout from all this stimulus.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#493
post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you've implicitly bought into the finance perspective, but it's not the only valid perspective by a long shot. consider at least the humanist perspective that people need to live in housing , and that it's not all about money and wealth. this is a critical weakness of many economics perspectives in relation to how the world really works, and an active area of research in economics.

I'll reuse an argument from another comment I made: sure, let's accept that we need to treat housing differently because people need housing. Should we do the same for food? People need to eat as well. Does that mean we should factor in the cost of arable land into the CPI?

you'd asserted a simple statement that houses are (edit: only) assets, which is trivially rejected by showing just one of many other valid perspectives. that there is a spectrum of goods and diversity of economic intricacy among that range doesn't validate your original statement.

the broader point is that asserting a house is just an asset is more a value statement (and more abstractly, an aggression) than a truism. investment has generally become decoupled from its intended purpose of producing value for the many, not just the few (i.e., the efficient allocation of capital), and this kind of misguidance contributes to that kind of misallocation.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#494
post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Right, but in most markets rent prices track property values. The long-term upward trend in housing prices is inflation to approximately everyone who doesn't own a house. Which, significantly, includes approximately everyone under the age of 20 or not yet born. and that's fine, because rents are tracked directly in the CPI. >But most people are not buying housing primarily as an investment. Most people are buying ho…

> but from an analytical perspective there's no difference Only for embarrassingly impoverished analytical frameworks. Unless you know of a bank that will loan me seven figures at sub-3% interest rates based on 10% down and my income, and then let me spend that money in the stock market :)

>Unless you know of a bank that will loan me seven figures at sub-3% interest rates based on 10% down and my income, and then let me spend that money in the stock market :)

That does indeed make a x% return in the housing market more attractive than a x% return in the stock market, but has to be considered against all the other factors as well eg. diversification, actual returns (historically stocks have higher returns), risk (10x leverage also means 10x more loss), costs (stocks require no upkeep, houses require yearly maintenance), etc. At the end of the day though, it's still an investment as opposed to something you consume.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#495
post #385
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not an economist. My layman understanding of inflation is that it is the measure of change of purchasing power a unit of currency has over time. I think most laymen, including myself, questions how this rather theoretical concept is actually measured in real life. Eg. I think it is a sensible expectation that if inflation was said to be 2% for 20 years then I should be able to buy a house that cost $200K 20 years…

Not the parent, but the answer here comes down to two simple things: 1. Home prices are not captured in CPI, only rents. 2. The headline CPI is a national number. Home price inflation has actually been somewhat tame overall in recent history (2-3% per year), but it has been very geographically uneven. Some places have experienced basically no inflation, while others have tons of it. Here is the graph for home price i…

> Home prices are not captured in CPI, only rents.

This is literally correct, but misses the essential feature of the housing issue in CPI: A large component of the housing contribution is "owner's equivalent rent" (OER).

Last I checked (now years ago), there is a survey where BLS essentially polls homeowners with the question "How much would your house rent for?" That number is then used for the OER component of CPI.

As the housing bubble was popping, BLS felt it necessary to explain the divergence between rents and OER [1]. The statistic was an absolute mess then, and I haven't seen any reason why it got cleaned up since, although I have not followed it closely in recent years.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2007/pdf/ec070090.p...

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but no, they don't. Out of all of the examples I used, only one has agreed-upon norms and standards that can be measured : racing. All the other examples I used -- chef, journalist, writer, singer -- can win awards and recognition: Michelin stars, Pulitzer, Hugo, Nebula, Grammy, and such. Those are good indicators of their accomplishments, but that's not the same as having a set of "agreed-upon norms and s…

I don't dismiss the profession. I dismiss the professionals. They need to provide more proof then identifying as a professional exactly because it is not a science. I also need to understand their biases and agenda. Honestly it's usually easier to just ignore them and give their opinion no weight greater then anyone else.

I agree with everything you wrote except that last sentence, and that is exactly what I refer to as "dismissing the profession". Understanding their biases and agenda is by no means trivial, or even easy, but it's most likely a lot easier than spending all the time they spent on studying the subject matter.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#497
post #334
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knows CPI is not analogous to reality. Why would it be. Just look at house prices

Because houses are assets, which are closer to stocks than food or cars.

In the United States, maybe, but this is not true everywhere. In Japan, for instance, houses are treated more as depreciating assets like cars.

You can buy a brand new 4 Bedroom house in a nice part of Tokyo for ~$300,000, but don't expect to make money on the deal.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#498
post #345
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because houses are assets, which are closer to stocks than food or cars.

Assets are items that generate cash flow. If you live in it, it's a liability and not an asset. Just because its value increases in relation to funny money doesn't mean it's generating cash flow. How much bitcoin do you need to buy a house?

> If you live in it, it's a liability and not an asset.

That's not a disqualification of an asset, if devaluation is outstripped by increased valuation over time. eg I live within a parcel, that parcel is not transformed into a liability.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what gives? Does anyone have the data sets and the formulas used to calculate the CPI? No, I don't think so, because they are hidden. Until the data used to calculate the CPI is open, it is all speculation.

https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ Be sure to refer to overview.txt and for more high-level details refer to https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm and https://www.bls.gov/cpi/methods-overview.htm — you might also find relevant information on weighting here https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm Typical entries in the AP (Average Price) series look like: APU0000701322 2015 M05 1.335 where APU000…

An "Average Price" has to be calculated from survey data.

That survey data is what is not open as far as I know: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/data.htm.

Re: Food Prices Are Soaring Faster Than Inflation and Incomes

#500
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its probably being cancelled out in the basket by healthcare and education prices skyrocketing. Oh wait.

No joke, back in 2011, a Fed executive insisted that iPad deflation was canceling out higher food prices. Not even that iPads were getting cheaper, just, new ones had faster CPUs, so their effective price was lower. (Which somehow frees up more money for food?) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-dudley-ipad-idUST...

Which was horribly tone deaf, but not incorrect: yes, technological improvements do free up money for food. According to the New York Times, in the 70s your average car would survive for 100k miles. Today you can buy a car that not only survives more than twice as long, but it has far fewer costs: engines using a tiny fraction of the oil, coolants that last the car's lifetime, spark plugs that last several times as long, incredible safety features...

The 2021 Chevrolet Spark costs $13,400 (and appears to come with $1000 of "bonus cash" that would bring that down to $12.4k?), gets 38 MPG highway, and has a standard rear camera and touchscreen. You can buy it today - a brand new car, of reasonable quality, from a top name American company, for $160-ish a month for a 7-year note. It is far safer than any car sold in the 70s, it accelerates faster than most cars sold in 1970, it has navigation and a backup camera standard in the base model. Its paint and coatings will last forever, its battery is sealed, and it requires nearly zero service in the beginning of its life.

Look at a budget car in 1970 - Car and Driver's recommended budget pick was the Ford Pinto, $2500 as tested. It was described as "uncomfortable" with four adults - you really should stick to two, they said. The fact that the cars were still running after the first 15,000 miles was, according to Car and Driver, "an indication of the soundness of their basic engineering." It had painful, uncomfortable bucket seats. The Pinto, and I quote, "substantially more powerful than normal store-bought economy cars", had a 0-60 time of eighteen seconds - this is a car described as "nimble and powerful" in its time. _All_ of the budget cars delivered to Car and Driver had "serious defects" straight from the factory - in the Pinto's case, the camshaft had been installed incorrectly. Ford apparently built a whole series of them that way, then lost track of which. For a budget car to not squeak while braking was apparently impossible, so instead of discussing _if_ they squeaked reviews discussed how the squeaks sounded (the Pinto was apparently not bad - the Chevy Vega was described as a "depths of hell" squeak.) According to the manufacturer, in the first 24k miles, you would need a minimum of eleven hours of shop time, best case scenario, to keep the vehicle running. People describing their normal use mentioned they added a quart of oil a week to the Pinto - ludicrous today. And I won't even get into the safety of 1970s cars - a reminder that the Ford Pinto was famous for literally exploding into flames (the controversy came eight years later, 1978 or so), but despite this its safety is considered today "comparable to other 1970s subcompact cars" (aka terrible, but not remarkably so for the time.) Despite all this, it was a popular car for the time and got good reviews in its day.

At the current low minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, you would have had to work about the same amount of hours to buy a budget car today as in 1970 - the budget cars of today being spaceships in comparison. Drive a 70s car and a 2020s car down the road and you'll quickly understand that the modern car is a paradise of comfort in comparison - noise, smoothness, how it drives, handles, vibrations, emissions, etc etc. Many Western states have top speed limits of 80 mph, where the flow of traffic is 85 or higher - your Pinto would feel terrifying and be extremely unsafe at such a speed: if you crash you die.

Of course, the same applies to many things. Improvements in phone cameras mean that for many people, the cost of a phone+camera has gotten far cheaper. Quartz watches can last a lifetime and are far more accurate than mechanical watches. Remote control toys, flashlights, batteries, lightbulbs, washing machines - all cheaper. These things add up!

Reading your other comments in the adjacent thread, I think you're not seeing the forest for the trees. Yes, a CPU that is 10% faster has little marginal utility, and it does not provide you with much (if any) dollar savings in your pocket. But at the same time, the largest single-year increase in the price of bananas in the last few decades was a few cents a pound: those few cents in your pocket don't really do much either. For increases in both the cost of living and food, you're going to have to look at the ten- or twenty-year picture. Look at the total cost of a laptop that meets your average Joe's requirements. Look at the total cost of ownership of a car. Look at the cost of lightbulbs, toothbrushes and bicycles.

So yes, he is correct: technological improvements do cancel out increases in the cost of living elsewhere! The few bucks you save by not topping up your oil can pay for more expensive bananas, the thousands you save by your car lasting longer can pay for higher rent, the hundreds you save by not needing a camera can pay for a fatter bar tab. But, at the same time, tone deaf to say that to a working class audience in Queens NY in the depths of a recession while you're bailing out the big banks.

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