We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

I'm curious the name of the town you referenced that voted zoning out, if there's more I can read. I found a reference that modern zoning was started by the Germans in the late 1800s [0]. This article also mentions the the basic idea of zoning goes back to antiquity, but just the distinctions between stinky and noisy outside the walls, dangerous and filthy between the walls, and every thing else inside. Also mentioned was the industrial revolution, and the change from people working in their houses to factories, and needing to separate those. Also mentioned was modern single use zoning, which has a lot of criticisms.

You mentioned a factory 1" from my property. That is an extreme example! The Japanese zoning laws I referenced, and would welcome, do make a distinction between industrial and residential/commercial, and between high density and low density. They key is they are flexible and allow for growth, they are not micromanaged by incumbent homeowners. Low density includes mixed use, and can grow into higher density over time if more people move to an area.

I ask you: What about the ability to build an accessory dwelling unit for grandma on the property you own? Or replacing a single family home with a duplex or triplex? Those aren't nuisance or safety issues, are they? Why are those forbidden in most places? What about introducing small shops and mixed residential/retail properties into residential neighborhoods? How is anything supposed to change for the better if we regulate everything to be frozen in time, with incentive, and keep adding more regulations over time?

I believe that increasingly restrictive zoning, against things like the above, are causing a lot of damage to our society. Lots of poeple can't afford a place to live. Folks have to live somewhere. They tend to aggregate in cities where the jobs are. Lots of people are stuck with long commutes. So many modern neighborhoods are absolutely soulless, without places to gather, places to walk, and variety. People are neatly divided by income level and race, into bubbles that misunderstand and demonize each other, spending way too much time in cars.

Just because 51% of people vote on something doesn't mean it's not a tyranny. That's why they have the phrase "tyranny of the majority". There's principals involved, or there should be. Otherwise it would be ok for the majority to ignore and screw over the minority any time they want. And I think that is happening in this case. It's gone too far. Homeowners have theirs and are artificially restricting the supply of housing. They care more about their property values than they do about other people. I assume there's middle ground to discuss, about things like noise and pets, anticipating growth, allowing variety, what comes after car culture, how to explore alternatives, etc. But justifying the current regulatory regime based on a majority vote, when so many other people are negatively impacted, just makes me sad for what democracy has come to mean in this country.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoning

This is a big topic! I'm not for unfettered no-regulation zoning, I think we have established that. I'm going to ramble a bit, maybe get closer to where we disagree...

You described enjoying the wildlife in your neighborhood. I recognize that it's a shame when a good thing becomes popular, and the influx of too many people ruin it. I've seen that happen with inner city neighborhoods (gentrifying) and beach communities (tourists). Sometimes this gets complicated. For example, the beach I mention is still there only because of the millions of dollars funded almost entirely by the state, county, and nearby city, properties owners enjoy federal flood insurance subsidized by everyone, and despite all that the people that live their think it is their private beach and use every legal trick in the book to keep others out, which seems wrong to me. The gentrified neighborhoods I've seen are part of a city, there's much interconnectedness and less friction to moving between neighborhoods, so it seems popular neighborhoods come and go over the decades, and that is going to happen no matter what, trying to stop that risks causing market distortions like in San Francisco, which hasn't been good for the character of the city.

I wonder how long is reasonable to try to freeze a place in time. Going back several generations there were a lot less people in this country. People were a lot less mobile. Goods were produced closer to home, and the jobs that go along with that. The culture changes, faster now than ever. Maybe people now don't want to deal with other people? I don't know about trying to legislate good neighbors, that can only go so far without causing other problems.

As an aside, my ideal rural small town would have a center with small apartment buildings in a shopping district, surrounded by a half mile of neighborhoods and greenways, surrounded by nature. This is what small-town Spain is like. Farmers commute from their apartments to their fields. The city streets are like an extension of ones livingroom, people able easily gather together because they are near to each other. Not saying I'd legislate that, but I'd like to see such things be possible. The regulations we have certainly don't incentive that.

I'm in favor of letting a place slowly grow. I think overzealous regulations cause distortions like the popularity of air bnb, and developers who will only build luxury units due to the costs of working through the red-tape. There's not enough housing where people want it, close to the jobs. I blame suburban sprawl more than small towns. Who knows what work from home will do? Maybe everyone will move to small towns. Or maybe suburbs will decrease in value as they are abandoned for more vibrant city communities. You mention wells and infrastructure limitations, and I recognize that. I'm not for growth that would outpace genuine practicalities. I know enough about this to know that many of today's suburbs may not be able to sustain their infrastructure, the density is too low, there are too few people per mile of road, water, electric, and sewer to afford the upkeep, they already need to be subsidized by more dense areas. Cities are already subsiding suburbs.

I believe that a significant factor in all this is that houses were not considered to be appreciating assets in the past. This has now become primarily a UK/US/CA/AU/NZ thing. Japan is not like that - houses there are no more considered an appreciating asset than cars are in the US. They build them to last 20 years, and build new ones frequently. Land is not so much an investment given that the population is declining and will continue to do so. I was glad when Trump raised the standard deduction, as a back-handed way of phasing out the mortgage interest deduction. I'd also like to see a land value tax - where a city taxes the land based on what the market wants to build on a piece of land, so someone expecting to keep their 5 acres near downtown has to pay dearly for that. I'd like to be sure that corporations don't get more involved in housing supply issues than they already are, they will lobby for more regulatory capture.

The variance for a grandma cottage, or building out a duplex as an extension out the back of the house or raised roof, is subject to approval from folks who are primarily motivated by the bulk of their retirement saving being invested in their house. Most places simply won't approve anything like that. You have to convince everyone that it is in their best interests, and they don't care so much about you. The lengths some people go to can be despicable, their opposition being a thin veneer over their concerns over resale value, some of it not well reasoned. I'm not saying that is always the case, but it happens a lot.

You mentioned supporting more density in cities, and I would agree.

You also mentioned tiny houses, which I know a bit about. You might find it surprising that there are very very few populated places in this country where it is legal to live in one, and not a lot of unpopulated places, either. Some places like Austin are allowing them as accessory dwelling units, because Austin is one of those places that has priced out the people who made it an attractive place to live (Austin is about the music, and musicians can't afford to live there anymore), I think that it is Portland or somewhere nearby is experimenting with "pocket communities", where a cluster of tiny houses can be grouped together around a common space on a couple/few acres. There is a dying town in Texas that welcomes tiny houses on single family lots, desperate for citizens. There is a town in Florida that allows them on single family lots. NY has an interesting hunting cabin loophole. Outside of that there are counties in some western rural areas with minimum zoning laws, I've heard of that in Iowa (minimally they want to know that you are treating your sewage properly). And that's about it. But most people who want a tiny house would like to live near other people like themselves who are not so house-focused. It's difficult to check on this, one has to search each municipality individually, and read through their 100 page zoning documentations. The tiny house sales people don't tell their customers that eventually a neighbor will call the town zoning inspector who will promptly give them a notice to vacate. You can permit it as a shed and use it as a writer cabin, but not live in it. More and more localities are making it illegal to camp on your land, even rural land, or live in anything except a house made specifically as detailed in the codes (the inspectors don't know what to pass it otherwise), of a specific minimum square footage, with minimum parking and garage spaces, with limits on how many unrelated people can live there. It's stifling and hard to escape. I think it is good for a society to have room for people who want to do something different.

EDIT: On the subject of democracy, and a majority versus super majority, voting for exceptions, etc. I don't believe that "there are more of us", no matter how many more, is a valid justification to impose on even a single person. Unless a decision is unanimous there should be morally valid reasons to impose on those who disagree, not just force of numbers. I stand by my remark that imposing on a minority with no other justification is tyranny. In the case of zoning there are relevant reasons for limitations to discuss.

Like I said, it's a big topic, and this has been an interesting conversation. I'm still in favor of Japanese style zoning, allowing for measured growth, set at a federal level, eliminating some of the wrong incentives individual neighbors have to impose on others, and giving people more flexibility in other areas. I don't know if you have any other thoughts, or if we have reached an impasse?

Yes, Big Topic! (showing how there are no easy solutions)

The Democracy/Tyranny/Unanimity issue has problems. Any decision can be expressed as its reverse: [Freedom From] or [Freedom To]. Requiring unanimity allows any individual to exert their will against the remaining 99.9xx% of the people. I want [Freedom From triplexes and all their knock-on effects], you want [Freedom To build triplexes]. If 99% of the ppl agree with your or me, the last one of us standing imposes our decision on the rest. Not even solvable with defaults. The current default here is [Freedom From development], so we should require 100% unanimity to change it? Literal generations have worked with the same set of rules, and continually agreed, voted and paid large sums to support them, so it's kind of specious to argue that it is not a legit default.

Moreover, just changing the rules is like an unfunded mandate - it imposes huge costs on existing people who have already invested massive amounts in the previously defined structure. This applies to towns that do not have centralized services (water, sewer, etc.) as well as those that do - changing the loads by half an order of magnitude is not free. If you want to change it, bring funding too.

I agree with your point about adding to commutes. MIT traffic studies in our area show how the commute traffic suddenly gelled and nearly doubled commute times with just a few hundred cars added from a couple of towns. Changing all of the zoning in the sub/exurbs will only create an absolutely unworkable mess for everyone, including the newcomers who thought they were getting X, but actually will just get Silicon-Valley-style traffic.

I could probably agree that some kind of larger scale planning is appropriate once the density of employers and people exceeds certain thresholds. E.g., when it is already more than 10,000 residents per square mile, and some number of jobs per square mile, then there should be a planned, and probably large scaling up in allowable density, with design for intra-city transport, lower traffic, etc.. BUT, I still question balancing my/our ability/right to impose that vs the fact that this involves problems that The Market is not good at solving well.

Good stuff. Had to get some of the bickering out of the way first, I guess :-)

I agree about the money for services, practicalities need to be respected. I assume doing better in cities could lighten the load in other places, and that is where we can help the most people the fastest.

On the Democracy/Tyranny/Unanimity issue... A lot of regulation seems to be made for the "average person", and it can be difficult if you don't fit in that mold. From a democracy perspective I'd be happy if there were more (metaphorical) space for people who want to try something different, not just in the (disappearing?) unregulated boonies. I mentioned the Japanese federal zoning, but to be honest that does conflict with my tendency towards preferring more local control for most things, only passing control to higher authorities when all the localities agree. Tilting at windmills perhaps. But as a counterpoint I give you Switzerland! (I'm learning more about their more direct/local democracy, and it is interesting)

I still think that negotiating consensus should be the baseline goal in a democracy, trying to understand and accommodate those who strongly object if within the realm of possibility. I really want what I want, and I also want you to have what you really want.

Back to zoning... You threw out a number... I'm not sure if 99% approach zoning issues in the same way you would. You don't sound like a renter, or someone who moves frequently, or someone struggling to pay bills, or stuck with a bad landlord. Or someone having to deal with a corporate apartment complex putting the squeeze on them with valet trash charges and expensive bundled cable, or an unethical corpation falsely claiming damages against your security deposit. Or a 30 something millenial who doesn't fit the corporate mold and is worried to death about affording a place to live, a family, retirement, and loosing the rat race. Or someone who can only afford to live in a camper. Or someone who has to move back in with the kids to afford living on their social security check. Or one of those people outside Houston or Atlanta with a two hour commute. Or someone who doesn't have a car. Or someone down on their luck and would like a secure place to camp where they can get to a supermarket and a bus stop to get to work, and maybe a port-a-pottie, Or someone who lost their life savings all tied up in their house in 2009. or a multigenerational family. Coporations and rich developers can get variances for their profit optimized investments, but the little guy not easily. Well, you get the idea. I apologize, but I get worked up about all of that :-)

I don't know what the vote would be if more options were given to people. But there are a lot of people in a lot of places who are not happy with the way things are. Current zoning sometimes seems like a bad deal from some of these other perspectives, and I agree.

I'm still learning about all this stuff. Like I mentioned before, I am concerned about the financial incentives behind the status quo, and I'm also concerned about the impact to our culture. So many working families struggling even with two incomes, neighborhoods and neighbors replaced by commutes and strangers. The world has been changing fast. My grandfather was a steel worker, didn't finish high school, and owned an extra cottage near the lake and a retirement/rental in Florida. Zoning has such a huge impact on affordable housing (and transportation costs) for so many people. I assume that financiers and corporations aren't helping.

I imagine the basic supply and demand equation will be quite different in another decade or two when the demographically significant boomer generation are dying in large numbers. I think that we're lucky exception amongst developed countries to have a large millennial generation. The assumption is that birth rates will stay low. Maybe much of this will be a moot point.

Czechia.