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Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

latimes.com

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Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#231

Post by seanmcdirmid »

TeeMassive wrote: post #214

I don't understand the framing of the article when they say > The number of people leaving California typically tracks with the amount entering the state. But the findings show that wasn’t the case in the fourth quarter of 2020, when 267,000 people left the state and only 128,000 entered. So that's 130k people leaving for one year (not a quarter like the way it's phrased, I've looked up the statistics and 130k a year…

> I'm failing to see how losing 0.3% of your population is not the beginning of an exodus?

It could be the beginning of an exodus, but it is not strong evidence that an exodus will follow. If done for affordability reasons, it reduces demand a bit to create a new equilibrium with supply.

Anyways, I’m not clear why anyone with a background in tech would be confident that a 0.3% drop was evidence that a huge drop was just right around the corner.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#232

Post by jake891 »

navi0 wrote: post #64
systemvoltage wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People of San Francisco passed a law t̶o̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶o̶w̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶r̶o̶b̶b̶e̶r̶y̶ ̶u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶$̶1̶0̶0̶0̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶ ̶c̶a̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶f̶i̶l̶e̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶c̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶p̶s̶.̶ They also expect safe neighborhoods. You can't have both. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26040812 Liberal policies such as this does not solve the actual problem. Instead of providing food and shelter to the poor, perhaps st…

Minor correction: in 2014, the people of CA passed Prop 47, which reclassified most non-violent property theft crimes as misdemeanors [0]. This change is largely credited with the dramatic increase in shoplifting in SF. What’s interesting is why SF appears to be the most affected county. It might be because it continues to elect soft-on-crime City Attorneys or that it fails to investigate organized crime rings that t…

The incarceration rate of SF county is higher than any country or major city in Europe. Persecution ain’t the issue. Lack of housing, healthcare and honourable work is.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#233

Post by seanmcdirmid »

rsj_hn wrote: post #223
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. Look at New York. Anyways, if you want to see the reality, do a Google for “California population”, it will include Florida and Texas in a graph that goes back to 1920.

The exodus from NY was pretty remarkable and widely commented on. It was devastating for the state and led to the bankruptcy of NYC.

And...where is NYC today? Definitely not a desolate bankrupt city with falling property values.

Also, San Francisco and the Bay Area are definitely not immune to the boom-bust cycle, there have been busts before and there will be busts again, just like any other boom towns.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#234

Post by mav3rick »

rayiner wrote: post #171

I’ve thought about this quite carefully, and I’m convinced we need to kick California out of the union. There is too big of an impedance mismatch with the rest of the country, and it creates and exports too much economic inequality. The usual retort to this is “what will you do without California’s economic engine?” And that’s a fair point—America without California will be less wealthy. But that will be fine; and in…

We would gladly leave.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#235

Post by gamechangr »

dan-robertson wrote: post #126
thisarticle wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re intelligent, not bright.

What is the difference?

Not OP but

Intelligence is having knowledge (think book knowledge )

Bright is like sharp. (think street smart or think things through that are complexed)

I have friends that I consider very intelligent that are not bright. One makes $200k as an actuary but can't figure out how to talk to his kids in a way that sounds human/normal.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#236

Post by atweiden »

mushbino wrote: post #94
lettergram wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just want to point out, this could be the result of socialist values. Throughout all history from Rome to Soviet Russia to the Bay Area. Giving away free stuff leads to an influx of people to the population center. They wanted or needed a free ride. The population center doesn’t get taxes from those people, so they are a burden on the system. Further exasperating the issue, corruption. There’s always corruption, in a…

So you're saying the homeless and mentally ill in San Francisco are just lazy and grifting the system? There's plenty of data available to show how naive that statement is. What would be your proposed solution?

It’s an untenable situation to have tens of thousands of people shooting up heroin, defecating openly on city streets and accosting the public — sometimes violently — while local residents foot the bill. This is a federal issue. West coasters deserve to live in cities with reasonable standards of public health and safety, and local governments are unable to solve the problem through social programs without attracting even more homelessness.

West coast lawlessness demands federal funding. Tent city occupants are for all intents and purposes refugees, and we basically need a UN-style refugee camp for them to live in.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#237

Post by CryptoPunk »

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #177
CryptoPunk wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, San Francisco is lagging cities in Texas in providing social services, which is why its homelesssness/street-disorder/drug-abuse problem is so much worse. There is a point at which you have to realize/admit that your ideological narrative, and the public sector interests who popularize it, are wrong. The left coast cities, from San Fran to Vancouver, have prioritized decriminalization of drugs, social services,…

San Francisco is lagging cities in Texas because Texas actually has seasons and would rather not have a bunch of rotting corpses under their many overpasses.

That is not why San Francisco is lagging Texas. Texas usually does not have harsh winters.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#238

Post by aidenn0 »

the_optimist wrote: post #168
aidenn0 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 47 makes theft, not robbery a misdemeanor. Big difference.

I witnessed a theft last week where a fellow just walked out with a load of merchandise whilst paying customers counted their coins. The initial social response among the bystanders and customers was alarm. "What just happened!?" Employees responded: "Let it go, it happens all the time." The impact on the "social bond" of society became suddenly clarified. We live in a lawless society. Those that follow the laws are…

Shoplifting is tough because it can often be cheaper for the store to write it off than to sufficiently improve security. I think a misdemeanor for theft is fine, but I agree that these laws should be enforced.

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#239

Post by atweiden »

benjohnson wrote: post #209
jeffbee wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "special brand of lawlessness" includes having hit an all-time-low robbery rate in 2019, the latest data available.

Here in Seattle, people just stop reporting when they know nothing will happen.

Just to add some colour to this:

    This. I moved outside of Portland a few months ago
    after three serious incidents on my property involving
    violent vagrants. In all three cases the police took
    over an hour to show up and did absolutely nothing.

    I had a man trying to break in to my backdoor. When
    I confronted him and demanded that he leave, he began
    swinging punches and pulled out a knife. I managed to
    restrain him and the 13 year old girl next door called
    911 (in hysterics). After keeping this guy pinned
    for 30 mins while waiting for the cops, I gave up and
    released him. He then attempted to assault me again. So
    I pinned him for another 15 mins, the neighbors called
    911 again. Still no cops. So I let him go and kept
    kicking the guy in the ass (literally) until he left
    my property.

    The cops show up about 75 minutes after the first
    call and said "Our hands are tied. We can't do
    anything." They didn't even bother to look for the
    guy. They just wanted to leave.

    I've seen this happen first hand in developing
    countries. You know what happens when law enforcement
    doesn't do its job? Violence escalates due to rise of
    vigilantism - as communities are left with no choice
    other than to employ street justice.

    After three incidents (none as bad as the first) I found
    myself concluding "The next time one of these guys tries
    to break into my property or threaten my family I am
    simply going to kick the shit out of them... There is
    no point calling the police."

    I am a peaceful person that has never even been
    in a fight. That's when I knew it was time to leave
    Portland. Who wants to live like this? I don't want to
    assault anyone, but I also want to live in peace and
    feel assured my family is safe.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Portland/comments/krk5la/how_are_yo...

Re: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco

#240

Post by edbob »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #67
CryptoPunk wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, San Francisco is lagging cities in Texas in providing social services, which is why its homelesssness/street-disorder/drug-abuse problem is so much worse. There is a point at which you have to realize/admit that your ideological narrative, and the public sector interests who popularize it, are wrong. The left coast cities, from San Fran to Vancouver, have prioritized decriminalization of drugs, social services,…

As someone whos nowhere near liberal enough to want to live in San Francisco, isn't there some kind of diminishing return effect where the better you're homeless services are, the more homeless come to take advantage, and the worse the problem becomes? Especially with the fantastic weather so less exposure deaths? If Texas spends no money on homeless people who don't help themselves they have to leave or die. What's…

I don't know all the stats, but I know Waco, TX has a large homeless population since I helped out a bit there when I was younger. A quick search shows that Waco spends $39,000/yr per homeless individual[0], and the famous Church Under the Bridge[1] (an open-air gathering under the I-35 overpass) has been unable to meet normally but is making sure that people still get fed [2]. (They are mention feeding 80 people--there were hundreds when I attended, but there are a number of kitchens around so it sounds like most attendees are getting their food elsewhere).

I don't know why anyone would assume that homeless people are starving in Texas. What do you think all the shelters and kitchens are for?

[0] https://www.waco-texas.com/housing-homelessness.asp#gsc.tab=... [1] https://www.churchunderthebridge.org/ [2] https://www.kwtx.com/content/news/Waco-Church-Under-the-Brid...

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