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We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

nytimes.com

411–420 of 461 posts

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#411
post #142

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Unfortunately much of the financial system (in the US anyway) is highly dependent on population growth. Many existing entitlements were created during periods of uncommon birth-rates with the expectation that the babies being born will grow and reproduce at the same rate as their parents. This growth hasn't materialized, and much of the existing growth can be attributed to immigrant inflows. Regardless of the environ…

>You have more economic growth if you give 1 million people $100 dollars (since they are more likely to spend it on goods/services) vs giving $100 million to one person (who will likely spend the bulk of their money on financial instruments). The US spends the majority of it's Federal Budget on giving small amounts of money to the non-rich, to the order of trillions of dollars per year. Also, when someone puts money…

>Also, when someone puts money into a financial instrument, that money usually flows immediately into productive use.

Yes but only under the assumption that aggregate demand always exceeds supply, which isn't true nowadays and that's why the economy is broken.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also add; limited housing development. Most new housing development after the war was gotten by turning farmlands and nature into single family houses. A lot of places have reached the limits of how far one can expand and run into some combination of geographical barriers, legal barriers (e.g. protected park or farmlands), or the barrier posed by time (most people have an upper limit of how long they are willing to c…

Ban building new office space in overcrowded areas. Big corps will be forced to build their offices elsewhere, in remote areas with plenty of land, workers will follow and so do small businesses.

Considering how many people insist on their neighborhood staying the same, why haven't they thought long and hard about what it means to let more and more corporations settle in their city without building enough housing to match the new jobs?

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#413
post #331

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I agree with you. The only way out of this is via automation. If we have high enough automation, costs will drop despite lack of growth. In the end the world will be a stark 0.001% who own the automation and the flat 99.999% who subsist on leisure and boredom.

> In the end the world will be a stark 0.001% who own the automation and the flat 99.999% who subsist on leisure and boredom. Leisure? Or poverty? This strikes me as a return to the default state for much of human existence and the current reality for much of the world's population.

I agree, and here's where I have to plug the excellent "Rules for Rulers": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs

Basically - a bit of an oversimplification, watch the video for a full explanation - democracies only stay democracies because giving people a relatively good life happens to coincide with citizen productivity, which increases leader wealth. If a country relies on a source of revenue that itself doesn't rely on the citizenry, then improving the lives of the citizenry is more or less irrelevant to the leaders, as in authoritarian governments.

That's what makes automation so scary. At a certain point, no country will need rely on the majority of the citizenry to produce wealth. Which means we are screwed.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#414

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I don't understand your view that population growth is required to manage debt. Isn't it inflation that reduces the future value of such debts?

Population growth ostensibly creates economic growth, which generates tax receipts to pay down public debt. We're about to hit a wave of massive inflation, which rewards asset owners and punishes workers and savers. Further, I used to think that millennials were poorer than they think they are, but then it clicked they absolutely understand, and that's why they behave exactly like the poor people they subconsciously…

>They know they're poor and they're acting like it, and they have less hope than policymakers imagine. Inflation wouldn't make a difference because they don't have any savings, and they don't have assets, it's just another force they're subject to.

The entire point is that inflation forces asset owners to do something useful. Inflation is beneficial to those who are dependent on an income.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#415

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> when birthrates are low we use immigration This is why I don’t believe in ecology. Every 5% we save on water, is being used by our leaders to stuff more population on the same land. It defeats the purpose of saving: Public policies cancel individual efforts, such as my friends who chose to have no kids for ecology. Capitalism is a way of forwarding global constraints to individuals, and exponential house prices com…

The only solution is having fewer babies worldwide. National borders don’t stop people from moving where opportunity is.

Imposing our point of view to other countries would be neocolonialism. A country should be free to make more babies, if that come from another assignation of resources and if they have control. Unless we start that their babies is our problem (Sorry it’s a bit crude - but this topic is a minefield anyway so I’m just stepping on each of them to test them).

India or China seem to deal well with extremely high density of population (...because their political system can withstand extreme inequality/poverty), while the West’s balance is lower. But with the same density as China, Africa overflows a lot.

Maybe “their babies is our problem” is a natural consequence of the Marrakech Pact (which blurs the lines of economic migrants, paving the road to guaranteeing they can migrate)?

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#416

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A good fraction of the pre-civilization humans were killed by a blow to the head...

In historical Europe, the probability of dying due to skull fracture varied between 2 percent (some places in England), 7 percent (London) and 20 percent (Croatia). Not to mention early death from famine and disease and other forms of homicide. The notion that we've got it harder now is wrong on all counts. There's a case to be made that we've got new existential risks due to technological progress (climate change, n…

It's not harder. It's unfair and this unfairness tends to be cyclical. People take up the pitchforks and get rid of their leaders.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#417

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Seriously, people need some fucking perspective. Yeah, things aren't too hot right now, but that's because all you do is consume the 24/7 newscycle and worry about what some nobody on Twitter is agonizing over about Disney's latest TV show. The world is the safest it's ever been. Aside from Covid, many massive killers of the past are no longer a problem. Our ancestors would be shaking their heads if they saw the pros…

I was reflecting just this morning how glad I am that I don't have children. (And I don't follow the 24/7 newscycle or use Twitter.) You want perspective? The Doomsday Clock is still set to 100 seconds before midnight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock > Aside from Covid ... Covid isn't the last virus. And the tools we use to fight it are also the tools we could use to make worse ones. (Every tool is also…

You’re worried about the Doomsday Clock? You realize it’s just made up right?

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your view that population growth is required to manage debt. Isn't it inflation that reduces the future value of such debts?

Population growth ostensibly creates economic growth, which generates tax receipts to pay down public debt. We're about to hit a wave of massive inflation, which rewards asset owners and punishes workers and savers. Further, I used to think that millennials were poorer than they think they are, but then it clicked they absolutely understand, and that's why they behave exactly like the poor people they subconsciously…

Millennials actually are less promiscuous and have sex later and less often than their previous generations.

So your points are not only classist, but wrong too.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#419
post #383

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>> somehow make houses a toxic asset that cost exactly the value the provide in the form of a roof, and no more. Wow, that seems like a plan just bulging with answers to the question: "What Could Go Wrong?". Yikes Pretty clearly, rent control doesn't work either, it just creates two distorted markets. Homeless shelters don't work except for a few cold nights. Housing projects don't usually create good conditions eith…

Fiddling with the demand side causes problems. Better would be to lift the restrictions on supply, loosen the zoning laws. /Soapbox (not aimed at you): I've been reading zoning regulations in several localities. "Land of the free" my ass! More like control and conformity. It doesn't make sense to me why accessory dwelling units are not allowed in areas with high demand, or more duplexes, triplexes, and walkups. There…

A lot of it is based on the environment and investment that the existing homeowners have built in the previous decades.

They invested in not only the specific home they bought, but also the neighborhood. They continued investing ever since living there. If they wanted a more dense environment, they would have invested in that sort of location. It costs significantly more to build and maintain less dense-pack areas, from building costs, maintenance costs, to property taxes, and nevermind the emotional investment.

Forced rezoning is to simply declare that: "Nope, you and your neighbors have made the biggest investment in your life in creating and maintaining your home and local environment, but we want it. You won't even compensate you by buying you out with eminent domain, we're just going to destroy everything you've built and the value of your largest asset by cutting down the trees, paving the grass, and putting up block buildings for all the people that want to live there, destroying the peace and quiet you've paid exorbatant costs and taxes to build and maintain and nevermind the habitat destruction for all the plants & animals either."

It does not work for semi-rural suburbs with 2+ acre zoning, and it doesn't work for quaint San Francisco neighborhoods. I could make more of an argument for the city, since cities are already close to sanitized for wildlife. And, having stopped, for now, a farcical proposal for a high-density building literally in my backyard that would have destroyed a certified endangered species habitat, I can certainly say that it is at best an ignorant prescription.

How is it fair to say that some people built X, we want X, since we can't have it, we'll just take it and destroy it?

More to your point, I can tell you that it is nothing do do with "greedy property owners".

It has to do with having INVESTED in a place and its environmaent, for a specific set of reasons, and having already bought, paid for, and borne the taxes and costs of maintaining that environment, and wanting to preserve that which they have paid for.

If they were actually greedy, they would immediately change the zoning laws to allow all that, as they would EACH make a lot more money from their property, and pay less in taxes. They do NOT make those zoning law changes because they agree that each of them will NOT profit from converting to duplexes/triplexes, etc.

You have it backwards.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#420
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this was true, then the monetary policies of the 2008 financial crash and the 2020 pandemic would both have created consumer price inflation. They haven't. We've seen some asset price inflation instead. In effect we did create a bunch of dollars and credited them to people's home equity and mutual funds... where it just sat there doing a whole bunch of nothing to consumer prices and wages.

"where it just sat there doing a whole bunch of nothing to consumer prices and wages." Your primary residence should be thought of as a consumption item, whether you rent or own. If homes cost more to buy or rent since the QE (and they do) then we absolutely have had consumer price inflation.

Too many people consider their house a store of value, a significant portion of their retirement assets, and/or a speculative asset that can be cash out refinanced.
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