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We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

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Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#291
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can find cheap housing, the problem is it's all in places where most people don't want to live. For example, Detroit, or any of thousands of small towns all over the US. Not picking on Detroit, it's just an obvious example of a large city that used to have a much larger population.

Ah that reminds me, we should not discount racism as a factor. Many would rather become debt slaves for life or forgo children than live cheaply around black people.

Very sad to see this downvoted. I don't know how people can see things like "WTF Happened in 1971?" without realizing the date correlations to the 1968 Fair Housing Act and especially especially to the 1974 Equal Credit Opportunity Act:

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1968#Title...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Credit_Opportunity_Act

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I experience in real life is pretty bad. My extended family went from being really close and compassionate to hateful and unable to be in the room with others. Your world might be nice, but not everyone else's is.

(I'm sorry about your family. I'm not trying to discount your experiences, just bring the GP comment proper context). I don't think you understood the parent comment. They weren't saying that everything is rosy, they were saying that the economic doom and gloom portrayed in the media (especially surrounding COVID) does not make the current economic reality. The context was not social polarization.

Ultimately people are the cause and our media is a symptom. Folks want to hear doom, outrage, oversimplified & radical takes, and the reinforcement of their beliefs. That sells. Supply and demand. So your outlet can play ball or get steamrolled by someone who will. I think mywittyname is right to focus on the people, not the media symptom.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you accounted for development induced appreciation? Perhaps a similar home further from the city center would be a more suiting comparison? Anecdotally, in central New York housing prices have gained only modestly. The 2008 financial crisis didn't have a large effect on prices here either. But... development in central New York is near zero.

The Amish are fleeing high land prices in Pennsylvania. There is development of a sort.

[deleted]

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#294

New York Times needs to be banned on HN. It is pure nazi propaganda and has nothing to do with startups or code. Why is New York Times allowed on HN?

This site is about anything that's intellectually stimulating, and isn't limited to startups or code(though such topics are always welcome).

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#295
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. It’s not some fundamental biological fact that you can’t raise a family in fewer than 1500 sq. ft. of house and 1/4 an acre of property. That was just a cultural norm set in a particular time and place.

I don't understand what the value to you is here in arguing that we all ought to just settle for less. More space is preferable, better conditions are preferable, and we do have the capabilities to work toward these things for all humans. The specific factors of post-WWII America may be unlikely ever to be repeated, but I can't agree that we should all settle for life as it was in the 1910s or earlier on the basis th…

People shouldn’t be made to feel like they would be or are bad parents if they put two kids in a room. Because I think the upshot to that is not going to be some workers’ movement that produces less inequality but instead fewer people that want kids having them due to fear of social stigma.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man, progressivism is so close to an ideology I could get behind, but it's like half a cup of postmodernism and a teaspoon of systems theory. I'm a glass deep on both. As an ideology you have correctly identified an inequity in treatment by law enforcement based on race, but the lack of systems theory and postmodern understanding leads you (as an ideology) to ascribe this to human perpetrators who actually want this…

> As an ideology you have correctly identified an inequity in treatment by law enforcement based on race, but the lack of systems theory and postmodern understanding leads you (as an ideology) to ascribe this to human perpetrators who actually want this to happen. I'm sure there are racist police out there, but systemic racism is not caused by racist individuals; its caused by the behaviour of systems (the justice sy…

> Weren't all of those systems designed, implemented and enforced by individuals? Racist policy makers, racist voters... from a systems perspective, systemic racism is the function of individual racism aggregated over time.

No, that's not always the case. Take for instance, the racially biased outcome that webcams more easily recognise white than black faces. That probably happened because the webcam was built and tested primarily by white people. Is it an encoding of racist intent? No, but the outcome was racially biased. The intervention, instead of firing all the developers for being racist, would be to simply include more people of different ethnic backgrounds in testing.

The same can be true of more complex systems. A classic not-related-to-inequality case of backfiring being the Cobra effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect).

Obviously some factors in modern day racial inequality are caused by racist individuals, but that does not make a system of racial inequality - it makes bad people causing hostile interactions on an individual scale.

There are clearly instances where policy is wilfully racist - slavery, redlining, and so on. But even once the system is gone, the repercussions continue until corrective systems are put in place.

> If anything, it seems modern and not post-modern to extract racist individuals from systemic racism as they are part of and the origination of the systems themselves. It's treating humans as something outside of the system, which is a view I'd align more with modernism.

A large piece of the modernist narrative is that we are masters over reality - if I'm a governor and I want to stop burglary, I implement a "no burglary, burglary will be punished" rule and sit back, satisfied that I've done all that I can. Modernism ignores complex causality, which is the field of study of systems theory.

A systems-aware governor would be asking "why does the burglary occur in the first place?" and seek the root cause of the problem in order to redress the outcome. Of course this tends to cross jurisdictions, but the idea that we can draw jurisdictional distinctions and have the justice person fix crime while the economy person makes jobs is also a failure to act systemically and no real systems change will occur in that setup.

> It's treating humans as something outside of the system, which is a view I'd align more with modernism.

To this specifically I will point out that humans exist inside overlapping systems, not apart from them. You are a citizen, a family member, a human being, your job, a member of your communities. We serve many functions inside many systems, but changing systems happens from within them, ie grassroots politics.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

700 million people in the world face food scarcity at any one time. The world is overpopulated and its resources strained by the existing 7.4 billion humans (CO2 budget, natural resources reserves, etc).

More people than that are overweight. The total amount of food might be enough, but simply ill-distributed.

How many people are fat from having a calorie-rich but nutrient-poor diet?

We may produce enough calories in sugar, but stuffing the world with cheap junk food is not a solution. Total amount isn't a good metrics; total quality and availability would probably be better.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not want to have kids. Then one day I realized that for the past 3 billion years my ancestors had been passing the torch. I was not going to be the one to let down the team. I felt a duty to give my genes a chance to fight it out in darwin's cage match. I can not guarantee my genes will win, but if I fail to reproduce I guarantee they will lose. Looking back, I am not sure this justification makes any sense, bu…

I'm always suspicious of anecdotes that go "I never wanted to do [thing], and then I had a thought that changed my perspective on [thing] though it's not really logical up front, and then [thing] happened and now I love [thing]." I always suspect it's the psycological immune system [1] kicking in to alter your own perceptions of [thing] so you don't go crazy, because [thing] was originally something you Did Not Want…

It also reminds me of the choice-supportive bias.[1]

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been thinking about this lately. Similar to you, the house I grew up in is much more less affordable now than it was when my parents bought it. However, in my case it’s not really the same house any more. At the time, the location was thought to be on the outskirts of town, away from the desirable areas. As the city grew, this location became the desirable area. If I look to what is now considered the outskirts,…

That's what I don't understand, if population growth is stagnant or declining, how is it these housing prices are reaching such heights?

Home prices keep reaching new heights in some areas due to:

1) Migration. Immigration from outside the country, but also internal immigration within the country from less economically vibrant parts to more economically vibrant regions.

2) Falling interest rates keeping the monthly mortgage payment the same or lower despite higher principals

3) Expectations that the price trend for homes will continue to look like the past. This expectation can lead to people buying more housing than they would normally consume.

4) Shrinking household sizes. You have gone from an average household size of 3.33 in the 1960s to an average household size of 2.53 today. That may not seem like much but you would need ~25% more housing today to accommodate the same population.

5) Larger house sizes. From a median of about 1000 sq ft in 1950 to 2300 sq ft today.

The above can combine to keep pushing up house prices in some areas (as we see in the US) even as the population growth of a country stagnates.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#300
There was an article I read in the Econonmist[0] (paywall, sorry) a couple months ago, that talks about a paper [1] (read the abstract) how raising the age that children are required to stay in car seats, 8 yo in the US, causes birth rates to decline. The reasoning is that cars have room for two, but not three, children in car seats. Thus the cost of the third child includes upgrading to a larger sized car or van. Very interesting unintended consequence of a safety measure. Also this doesn't deal with the pandemic results, but when I read about it I thought it was interesting and that if this is a thread about birth rates, others might want to read about it too.

[0] https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/11/26/...

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665046

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