Live data from Hacker News

We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

nytimes.com

211–220 of 461 posts

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much every single generation other than your parents (assuming you’re 25-40) had a tougher time and lived in a world with a more uncertain future. Every generation, going back millions of years.

That's not even remotely true. The vast majority of humans had very very stable futures. Like tens of thousands of years stable. Civilization as we know it is very very recent and unstable.

A good fraction of the pre-civilization humans were killed by a blow to the head...

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#212

Birthrates are a powerful, but lagging/post-hoc indicator of public policy effects. It's worth noting that we tend to associate high birthrates with poverty and negative social outcomes. Except, when rates are low we (western countries) use immigration from high-birthrate societies to shore up the population replacement rate, as the article notes. When you look at who is having kids in the US and Canada, the families…

> I'd speculate this is because if you are either rich or poor you have stability in that your life circumstances aren't going to change that radically,

In the U.S. this may be due not to 'stability', but Medicaid.

To be clear, Medicaid benefits are a hot mess of bureaucracy. To paraphrase Voltaire: 'The point of Medicaid is to ensure that no two people are covered under the same set of rules'.

That said, Medicaid covers ~22% of the U.S. population. The Medicaid yearly income cut-off for a 2-person household is ~$57k/year. Most of the costs of a pregnancy are covered under Medicaid [0].

What are such costs? Well, again, it's very complicated, no birth is 'standard'. And googling this is going to lead to a wide range of answers. But in my local area for a first birth, one baby, no c-section, no epidural, no emergency measures, you're looking at ~$20k out of pocket. And that's with a 'good' HCP. C-sections go to ~$80k, and those are ~20% of first births in my area. Again, the costs will vary wildly depending on many factors.

Then you add in check-ups, vaccinations[1], standard illnesses, ear infections, etc. Medicaid will mostly cover these things, while anyone making more than the cut-off must pay them out of pocket with their HCP discounts, if applicable (again, caution, it's super complex bureaucracy).

The interesting thing is to look at other countries with mostly functional universal healthcare systems. What has happened to their birthrates based on income when you look at how much a mother can be expected to pay for a birth? From what I can recall, there seems to be no real difference as compared to the US, correct?

[0] https://www.growingfamilybenefits.com/medicaid-coverage-duri...

[1] They may be free, but it depends on your HCP. Sometimes the nurse to inject will bill pretty high. I've gotten ~$300 bills for vaccinations before.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#213
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But my point is that such a misunderstanding of other people is not a symptom of privilege, its a symptom of being human. You probably don't know how billionaires as a class (and generalising people by a demographic is overgeneralising too) are experiencing covid either, but that isn't a question of privilege. I guess I just don't like the idea of taking a universal human experience and casting it in terms of privile…

David Graeber made a really good argument for why misunderstanding others is exactly a symptom of privilege. The whole article is worth reading (as is the whole book I originally read it in, "The Utopia of Rules"), but here's the argument in a nutshell: "Those born to working-class families invariably score far better at tests of gauging others' feelings than scions of the rich, or professional classes. In a way it's…

The short version of which is "the privileged are just selfish", which is a class based stereotype, ie dehumanising.

If someone starts off poor but becomes wealthy, do they lose the ability to empathise? Or do those those lack empathy seek the power to pursue selfish ends? I would argue the latter makes more sense.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a new father, I share this perspective. To get an anecdotal sense of our financial struggle, we have 2-4x the net worth that my parents when they were our age, but cannot afford the same house that I grew up in and doubt we ever will.

I’ve been thinking about this lately. Similar to you, the house I grew up in is much more less affordable now than it was when my parents bought it. However, in my case it’s not really the same house any more. At the time, the location was thought to be on the outskirts of town, away from the desirable areas. As the city grew, this location became the desirable area. If I look to what is now considered the outskirts,…

Same, but the "outskirts" has gone from a 30 minute drive to work to a 2 hour drive to work. At some point something has to give.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#215
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Unfortunately much of the financial system (in the US anyway) is highly dependent on population growth." I came to this discussion ctrl-f'ing for "deflation" and while I got zero hits, your comment is close enough ... I will abstract one level deeper and rephrase what you said as: "Much of the financial system is highly dependent on economic growth." There continues to be fervent discussion of the results of QE over…

What do you mean? Inflation can be easily created - just create more dollars and credit them to people's bank accounts; you will soon see all kinds of prices going up.

If this was true, then the monetary policies of the 2008 financial crash and the 2020 pandemic would both have created consumer price inflation. They haven't. We've seen some asset price inflation instead. In effect we did create a bunch of dollars and credited them to people's home equity and mutual funds... where it just sat there doing a whole bunch of nothing to consumer prices and wages.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much every single generation other than your parents (assuming you’re 25-40) had a tougher time and lived in a world with a more uncertain future. Every generation, going back millions of years.

That's not even remotely true. The vast majority of humans had very very stable futures. Like tens of thousands of years stable. Civilization as we know it is very very recent and unstable.

> That's not even remotely true.

I beg to differ - when's the last time you heard of a famine or major war in the 1st world? (same cannot be said of elsewhere, it is true)

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#217
post #41

This is probably mostly covid related. But I personally don’t even consider kids. Kids are a life long commitment. I’d only make that commitment if I felt long term stability or at least optimism. Austerity and cynicism dominate the US right now though. It’s a recipe for strife, struggle, and things that rip families and countries apart. It doesn’t have to be this way in the US.

I did not want to have kids. Then one day I realized that for the past 3 billion years my ancestors had been passing the torch. I was not going to be the one to let down the team. I felt a duty to give my genes a chance to fight it out in darwin's cage match. I can not guarantee my genes will win, but if I fail to reproduce I guarantee they will lose.

Looking back, I am not sure this justification makes any sense, but it was how I thought at the time.

In any case it's moot now because it turns out kids are great fun to have around and generally make life better. Except the car seats, car seats are a pain in the ass.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#218

Birthrates are a powerful, but lagging/post-hoc indicator of public policy effects. It's worth noting that we tend to associate high birthrates with poverty and negative social outcomes. Except, when rates are low we (western countries) use immigration from high-birthrate societies to shore up the population replacement rate, as the article notes. When you look at who is having kids in the US and Canada, the families…

> I'd speculate this is because if you are either rich or poor you have stability in that your life circumstances aren't going to change that radically, In the U.S. this may be due not to 'stability', but Medicaid. To be clear, Medicaid benefits are a hot mess of bureaucracy. To paraphrase Voltaire: 'The point of Medicaid is to ensure that no two people are covered under the same set of rules'. That said, Medicaid co…

[deleted]

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not even remotely true. The vast majority of humans had very very stable futures. Like tens of thousands of years stable. Civilization as we know it is very very recent and unstable.

A good fraction of the pre-civilization humans were killed by a blow to the head...

In historical Europe, the probability of dying due to skull fracture varied between 2 percent (some places in England), 7 percent (London) and 20 percent (Croatia).

Not to mention early death from famine and disease and other forms of homicide.

The notion that we've got it harder now is wrong on all counts.

There's a case to be made that we've got new existential risks due to technological progress (climate change, nukes, AI), and that's accurate, but tech/civilization will also help us to offset other existential risks (asteroid impact, pathogen). So that's up for debate.

Re: We Expect 300k Fewer Births Than Usual This Year in the US

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much every single generation other than your parents (assuming you’re 25-40) had a tougher time and lived in a world with a more uncertain future. Every generation, going back millions of years.

That's not even remotely true. The vast majority of humans had very very stable futures. Like tens of thousands of years stable. Civilization as we know it is very very recent and unstable.

Stable may be correct. But part of that stability was high infant / child death rates and very low life expectancy.
Post reply on HN