Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets • Hacker News Board

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#321

Post by justapassenger » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:13 PM UTC

omginternets wrote: post #288

justapassenger wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> aka forcing them out of their homes They aren't theirs. They're renters.

It might not be their apartment (or house or whatever), but it damn-sure is their home . First-world jurisdictions (including all 50 US states) universally recognize that eviction is a big deal, and that it is not equivalent to forfeiting any old rented property. Accordingly, landlords cannot do whatever they please just because they own four walls, a floor and a roof. Of all the things you could nit-pick, I can't ev…

Woah, slow down. I’m not arguing that eviction isn’t a big deal, or that renters have no rights.

By renting you’re in a (heavily regulated) business relationship with an owner, and they own the property. Growing overly attached to something that you don’t own, and calling it yours is risky. I know that tons of people don’t have luxury of owning their places, but that’s how our capitalism world works - ownership is king.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#322

Post by JPKab » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:13 PM UTC

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

There is plenty of scientific denialism on the right.

Along with anti nuclear, the belief that rent control is a remotely good idea is an example of scientific denialism on the left. There are some decent arguments to be made against nuclear but rent control has always always caused more harm than good everywhere it's been tried.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#323

Post by cbmuser » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:15 PM UTC

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

That's correct and can be observed in Stockholm, for example:

> https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20160517-this-is-one-ci...

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#324

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:16 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #322

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

There is plenty of scientific denialism on the right. Along with anti nuclear, the belief that rent control is a remotely good idea is an example of scientific denialism on the left. There are some decent arguments to be made against nuclear but rent control has always always caused more harm than good everywhere it's been tried.

> Along with anti nuclear, the belief that rent control is a remotely good idea is an example of scientific denialism on the left.

No, because “good idea” isn't an objective claim within the domain of science , it's a subjective value claim outside of the domain of science.

Now, it's possible that in some cases this belief could be supported by belief in an objective claim that is itself an example of science denialism, but it could just be that people who believe that rent control is an good idea have different values than you do.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#325

Post by cbmuser » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:16 PM UTC

crote wrote: post #26

"Price changes in the regulated market dropped relative to those in the 13 other cities. That’s because real estate loses value if its future cash flows to landlords are capped. There was also an acceleration of apartments going up for sale, as landlords tried to cash out of their now less profitable investments." & "And whenever somebody does move out — when moving to another city, for example — the landlord tends t…

The problem is that's virtually impossible to find new in apartments these days.

This law only benefits tenants who already have an apartment in Berlin, anyone else is completely out of luck.

Source: I live in Berlin.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#326

Post by edbob » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:17 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #270

jdxcode wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The major flaw in your argument is that you can't do #2 with rent control in the picture. From the economist[0]: > Rent controls are a textbook example of a well-intentioned policy that does not work. They deter the supply of good-quality rental housing. With rents capped, building new homes becomes less profitable. Even maintaining existing properties is discouraged because landlords see no return for their investme…

> Rent controls are a textbook example of a well-intentioned policy that does not work. They deter the supply of good-quality rental housing. With rents capped, building new homes becomes less profitable. Rent control tends to be adopted with the fairly explicit goal of prioritizing affordability for existing tenants in their current residences over either encouraging maintenance/updates or improving housing supply f…

Your technical analysis is correct as usual, but I agree with sologoub's comment[0], "That’s not success, that’s picking winners and losers."

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26316547

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#327

Post by vitno » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:17 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #322

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

There is plenty of scientific denialism on the right. Along with anti nuclear, the belief that rent control is a remotely good idea is an example of scientific denialism on the left. There are some decent arguments to be made against nuclear but rent control has always always caused more harm than good everywhere it's been tried.

calling this "scientific denialism" seems like a huge stretch to me. It's not a science, it's housing policy.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#328

Post by ben_w » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:17 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #276

ben_w wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up is expensive, from what I hear.

Paris is one of the densest city in the world (overall, there are denser areas) despite having a cap at 6 floors on building height. (I might be off by a floor or so) At that height the cheapest building technologies* still apply and up is not that expensive. Now going up to 200 floors is very expensive. However on a per unit area it is only a few times what the cheapest building style* is. So it does require more ex…

On that basis, I’d be interested to see more grand buildings like those on Frankfurter Tor. While the insides of Soviet era buildings are the targets of German jokes [0], the outsides are grand, and they are more than 6 levels high.

[0] IIRC “if you come home to find your wife has changed her hair and redecorated, you went into the wrong apartment”, according to the DDR museum. I’m sure it lost something in the translation.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#329

Post by 908B64B197 » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:18 PM UTC

e40 wrote: post #289

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

I experienced exactly this in the early 1980's. In Berkeley, CA. Apartments were scarce because of rent control. I had a coworker that lived in his apartment from late 70's until late 90's. He paid less than $300/mo. It was great for him. He saved a ton of money and bought a house in Berkeley in the late 90's. But, as a student I had to live in Oakland and was never able to find an apartment. Every time I went to loo…

> He saved a ton of money and bought a house in Berkeley in the late 90's.

That gave him a durable advantage and helped him acquire assets that would further gain in value. Not to mention, as a renter and home owner, he was able to vote against new developments for years, further increasing scarcity and the value of his house.

And then bureaucrats complain about inequalities?

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#330

Post by bdowling » Tue, Mar 02, 2021, 10:18 PM UTC

crote wrote: post #26

"Price changes in the regulated market dropped relative to those in the 13 other cities. That’s because real estate loses value if its future cash flows to landlords are capped. There was also an acceleration of apartments going up for sale, as landlords tried to cash out of their now less profitable investments." & "And whenever somebody does move out — when moving to another city, for example — the landlord tends t…

> Those units don't magically disappear, they are bought - by homeowners.

I think you're assuming that the units are bought by owner-occupants and not other investors who have higher risk tolerance or who are betting that the law won't survive review by higher courts.