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National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

nscai.gov

21–30 of 115 posts

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#22
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting they are not?

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion based on my questions. China's place on the world stage is largely dependent on having customers. If there is no where for them to sell their manufactured goods, then they are not in a position of power.

China could discourage export of components and tools while encouraging export of consumer products. The profit margins are better that way, too.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#23

Off topic - if I wanted to write a report like that with those cool templates and graphics - what did they use ? I don’t think google docs can do that :)

From experience, Microsoft Office (Word plus PowerPoint for diagrams) is capable of doing approximately all of what you see there.

I'm not sure what the current state of LibreOffice is when it comes to advanced typesetting, but I expect it could easily do everything in that report.

LaTeX is in a class of it's own, practically the space shuttle compared to a Cessna. Unfortunately, the learning curve is a seemingly endless source of ¡fun! for beginners.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#25
post #20

At 756 pages, this looks to be longer than many textbooks. > Microelectronics power all AI, and the United States no longer manufactures the world’s most sophisticated chips. We do not want to overstate the precariousness of our position, but given that the vast majority of cutting-edge chips are produced at a single plant separated by just 110 miles of water from our principal strategic competitor, we must reevaluat…

It really is a concern just how dependent the entire world is on TSMC. "The best human operator cannot defend against multiple machines making thousands of maneuvers per second potentially moving at hypersonic speeds and orchestrated by AI across domains." Attacks by drone swarms are already here. The first one was Syria vs. Russia in 2018.[1] There was an attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.[2] Much of this has l…

> how dependent the entire world is on TSMC

Isn't Samsung nearly on par with them? (Not that two is a much better situation.)

It (perhaps naively) seems like most applications could theoretically make due with older processes, but I have difficulty imagining supply chains successfully coping with such a switch (not that I know anything about it).

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#26
post #14

At 756 pages, this looks to be longer than many textbooks. > Microelectronics power all AI, and the United States no longer manufactures the world’s most sophisticated chips. We do not want to overstate the precariousness of our position, but given that the vast majority of cutting-edge chips are produced at a single plant separated by just 110 miles of water from our principal strategic competitor, we must reevaluat…

If we sort-of mush the Democrats and Republicans together; the US Economic Strategy for the last however many decades has been to import stuff from overseas and beef up on services. The result has been titans like Apple (best of breed at outsourcing manufacturing to China), Amazon (best of breed logistics, very strong at importing from China) and Google (amazing service). Is there any reason to be surprised that the…

This arises naturally from the US having been the global reserve currency for so long. Other countries' debts are denominated is dollars, so they seek dollars via mercantilism. This has absolutely cannibalized our manufacturing base. There is a case for a weaker dollar and to rebuild our exports.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#28

> First, U.S. courts have severely restricted what types of computer-implemented and biotech-related inventions can be protected under U.S. patent law.6 Critical AI and biotech-related inventions have been denied patent protection since 2010.7 Facing uncertainty in obtaining and retaining patent protection, inventors pursue trade secret protection. Trade secrets do not readily promote innovation markets, because trad…

That's unfortunate. To rebuild our domestic manufacturing capability we should loosen on intellectual property.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#29
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that if trade with the US stops due to a US-China dispute or war there is literally nobody else in the entire world to trade with?

Pretty much that’s the case. US is #1 buyer.

US accounts for 16% of Chinese exports. 84% is the rest of the world.

So while it's the biggest trade partner, it's not the end all and be all. It's about as important as what the UK was to Ireland before Brexit. Stopping trade isn't helpful, but it's not a showstopper either.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#30
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is a concern just how dependent the entire world is on TSMC. "The best human operator cannot defend against multiple machines making thousands of maneuvers per second potentially moving at hypersonic speeds and orchestrated by AI across domains." Attacks by drone swarms are already here. The first one was Syria vs. Russia in 2018.[1] There was an attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.[2] Much of this has l…

> how dependent the entire world is on TSMC Isn't Samsung nearly on par with them? (Not that two is a much better situation.) It (perhaps naively) seems like most applications could theoretically make due with older processes, but I have difficulty imagining supply chains successfully coping with such a switch (not that I know anything about it).

They are trying, although not there yet.

There is also the capacity issue:

TSMC has 28% of the semiconductor market under 40nm, Samsung has 10%.

As a foundry, it's ~55% vs ~17%. Add in UMC and a few others and it's 64% Taiwan. Definitely a critical dependency.

https://www.notebookcheck.net/TSMC-has-the-largest-market-sh...

https://www.eenewsanalog.com/news/foundry-market-jumps-24-pe...

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