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Are You Trading or Gambling?

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Re: Are You Trading or Gambling?

#3
It's an artificial distinction. If you are wealthy, you have access to opportunities with good odds, call it trading and tell everyone about it so they know you are a sophisticated and wise investor.

If you are poor, you have few good options and generally wouldn't brag about your gambling. If you do, you are labelled irresponsible.

Re: Are You Trading or Gambling?

#7
post #4

I think this is an interesting concept for gambling: https://pooltogether.com

Ah, a lottery on a blockchain. Why not!

Except, unlike a national lottery, you can't trust the issuer and the value of your prize fluctuates even after you win.

Re: Are You Trading or Gambling?

#9
post #3

It's an artificial distinction. If you are wealthy, you have access to opportunities with good odds, call it trading and tell everyone about it so they know you are a sophisticated and wise investor. If you are poor, you have few good options and generally wouldn't brag about your gambling. If you do, you are labelled irresponsible.

I don't think the odds is really part of the distinction. If you find a way to "gamble" with positive expectation, by profiting from sports betting markets for example, you are still labelled irresponsible and reckless compared to real "investors" who buy stocks, even when those bets are clearly unwise.

Re: Are You Trading or Gambling?

#10

Working out EV is easy for casino table games, relatively easy for poker and extremely difficult for stocks trading.

Yes...bet sizing is something I worry about a lot, but it isn't clear to me how to apply the kelly criterion to a game where the risk/reward is mostly unknown and only based on a hunch.
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