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Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

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Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#101

Post by fock »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #76
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

There's a big difference between receiving an amount of government subsidy, and the government funding almost everything with nearly no budget limits. The former is definitely true, though China is not the only country engaging in such a practice. The latter claim needs sources to back up. If you look at the Chinese chip industry, then you see that a lot of money comes from the private sector. Huawei, Xiaomi, etc are…

> If you look at the Chinese chip industry, then you see that a lot of money comes from the private sector. Huawei, Xiaomi, etc are investing a ton of money in semiconductor companies.

A private sector which got so successful not least because government systematically robbed IP from competitors (Nortel...). Yes, western politics also messed this up, but no these are not "private" sector operations in the same way Tesla is.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#102

Post by FooBarWidget »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #73
baybal2 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making chips in US makes little sense except to get the coveted tarif relief for the very few remaining highly tarriffed goods. And if China decides to put sanctions on your fabs, you will just get a $10B microelectronics theme park on your hands because you will have nowhere to sell your chips. Do not count the last point lightly. I'm fully serious saying that US will likely have nowhere to sell those chips to. And…

> And if China decides to put sanctions on your fabs, you will just get a $10B microelectronics theme park on your hands because you will have nowhere to sell your chips. China could also decide that they won't sell their more advanced chips to the US (or any chips for that matter if it got serious).

Ironically, this is exactly what's going on right now... Except it's the US denying advanced chips to China. The US forced TSMC and Samsung not to sell to Huawei for example.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#103

Post by ksec »

jldugger wrote: post #83
HenryKissinger wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. The US government is way too reluctant to spend in this regard. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, hundreds of billions more in renewables, and so on. I don't see Congress giving a blank check to scientists and engineers, like China does.

> The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. But it's Taiwan that is doing the chip fabs in TSMC, not mainland China. While they do have some capacity in the mainland, it's best to not conflate the two when discussing the geopolitical situation.

I dont think the parents meant TSMC. China is indeed spending a hundred billion on establishing a Semi Conductor supply chain industry. If you count from 2013 ish, they expect to spend a total of $150B+ in 2025. From NAND, DRAM to General Fabs and other up and down stream in the supply chains. That number was projected in 2017/2018. I would not be surprised if they are pouring in even more resources now.

Luckily the Moat around leading edge, cost competitive DRAM / NAND and Modern Foundry is much much larger than I thought. Hopefully the world is not too late to react to it.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#104

Post by danaliv »

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #44
HenryKissinger wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. The US government is way too reluctant to spend in this regard. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, hundreds of billions more in renewables, and so on. I don't see Congress giving a blank check to scientists and engineers, like China does.

Here in the USA we're more focused on the important things, like passing identity politics legislation.

As someone protected by that legislation who also works in aerospace operations: good.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#105

Post by danaliv »

stevofolife wrote: post #56
TrispusAttucks wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the USA we're more focused on the important things, like passing identity politics legislation.

Of course, so important.

To the people it protects it’s extremely important.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#107

Post by AnthonyMouse »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #76
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

There's a big difference between receiving an amount of government subsidy, and the government funding almost everything with nearly no budget limits. The former is definitely true, though China is not the only country engaging in such a practice. The latter claim needs sources to back up. If you look at the Chinese chip industry, then you see that a lot of money comes from the private sector. Huawei, Xiaomi, etc are…

> If you look at the Chinese chip industry, then you see that a lot of money comes from the private sector. Huawei, Xiaomi, etc are investing a ton of money in semiconductor companies.

Where do you think those "private companies" got the money to build their businesses? Notice also that it's domestic (i.e. controlled by the Chinese government) "private companies" doing this.

China isn't allowed to just nakedly subsidize everything under trade agreements, so they have to do money laundering like that in order to get away with it.

> Clearly it's not all government money.

It doesn't actually have to be. All it has to be is enough government money to put competitors out of business.

> There's also a big difference between investing in an industry with the goal of dominating the world and eliminating competition, vs the goal of becoming a sovereign equal. Why is it necessarily the former, and not the latter?

Because the former results in one country being effectively the sole source in the world for certain products, e.g. cell phones, whereas the latter results in a domestic industry but not the destruction of all foreign industry in that market.

> The US is trying to kill the Chinese semiconductor industry

The US is trying to prevent the world semiconductor industry from becoming monopolized by China the same way they've been doing to so many other industries, because semiconductors have significant national security implications.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#108

Post by AnthonyMouse »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #72
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

I'd like to see this documented history. You mentioned electronics, but have they raised prices?

The trend in electronics prices is to decline over time, so you get the same result by not reducing prices as much as the ongoing reductions in cost.

Check how much a piece of consumer electronics costs in China vs. the US. They could charge the same amount.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#109

Post by AnthonyMouse »

flamble wrote: post #95
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

The offshoring of the production of consumer electronics devices is mostly the result of the free-trade policies of said countries, coupled with market forces. The growth centred around manufacturing has been the basis of Chinese prosperity and requires no speculating about devious motives to account for. As for the Chinese government's massive spending and subsidization of key industries, it's largely due to being f…

> The offshoring of the production of consumer electronics devices is mostly the result of the free-trade policies of said countries, coupled with market forces.

This fails to explain why everything moved to China and not Mexico or Brazil or India.

> As for the Chinese government's massive spending and subsidization of key industries, it's largely due to being free of the particular ideological constraints which force the US government to entrust everything to the market (except the military industry) which has predictably led to brittleness and vulnerability.

Entrusting everything to the market works great when it's a level playing field. When a country is doing things that would be an antitrust violation if done by a company, that requires another country to stop them. Typically through the use of trade sanctions, i.e. tariffs.

> The American approach does resemble the Chinese one in a sense. Whereas the Chinese government prefers to directly subsidize e.g. semiconductors, the US government pours unfathomable quantities of capital into a military capable of dissuading any country from capitalizing on the US's dependency on any of their industries.

In other words it's completely different?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#110

Post by AnthonyMouse »

yellowapple wrote: post #85
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your examples are companies that were pioneers in immature markets. And then if you succeed , the VCs own your company. It's not charity. Whereas China will give a Chinese company billions of dollars to unseat an incumbent in a mature industry and expect nothing in return except for that industry to be in China.

> and expect nothing in return Aside from the expectation of unwavering loyalty to the Communist Party of China, you mean.

Is that not what I said?:

> except for that industry to be in China.

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