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The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

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Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it failed to replace the F-16, for starters. And the A-10. It failed in becoming the NATO / Western end-all jet. It is expensive, there aren't that many. The stealth capabilities are lacking by modern standards. Maintenaince if expensive and the combat aircraft equivalent of an iPhone. Compare that to the cold war fighters. High numbers, used by the majority of US allies and even comparable cheap. Desiged to be…

The point of the F-35 is to be so technologically superior that you do not get into a war of attrition where you are bleeding planes at the same rate as your enemy. If that was the case it would mean none of the technology upgrades actually gave an advantage, which would be strange given their fundamental nature. What really matters is how many F-16s or cold war era aircraft an F-35 could take out before being shot d…

And that fact has, more or less, been answered. And even the to-be-delveloped aircraft are expected to fight in enviroments in which they more often loose against air defence and have equal odds against same gen fighters with slight adavtages against fighters one gen behind. The latter largely depends on Command-and Control. And on radar. Basically, stand-off attacks only work against between stealth and non-stealth fighters. Between stealth ighters, it's up close again.

Radar already now can tag, reliably, the F-35. And will tag next gen stealth jets. The same radar already now can trace 100s of contacts per installation, making saturation difficult. Air combat really is getting expensive... The problem steath jets have , is that you need only a handfull of ground based radars. Which can be develeoped and deployed fatser than new stealth jets. Stealth, so, is loosing its usefullness over the service life of a model. And that service life will be long.

Stealth will still be needed to not be at a disadvantage against other stealth jets, so. Unfortunately for the F-35, it is the fisrt of these fighters.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#452

The saddest thing about all of this IMO is they have been working on this for 14 years, and how much money was spent/wasted? Now, read about Skunkworks - they were able to build the SR71 (without supercomputers) in less than half that time and for a fraction of the cost. This isn't just planes, this seems to be everything nowadays. Fission was discovered in 1938/1939 and we dropped two bombs on Japan in 1945. No chan…

You misunderstand the purpose the F35- it is a jobs and pork program first and foremost, like SLS. It has the side benefit of keeping people trained to build this sort of thing, so SpaceX can hire them. We can build cool shit, but our government and most companies don't optimize for that.

And it isn’t just a domestic jobs program. Countries that agreed to buy the F35 were rewarded with subcontract work. There are at least a dozen partner countries.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more than just a jobs program too. It's a reelection plan for senators/house members. Look at what states and districts get these big DoD contracts and then look at what committees the congressmen/women are sitting on. They approve plans that benefit them then direct the funds right into their districts so they can campaign on it. I mean it's not the worst form of corruption but it's pretty shitty when you reali…

But imagine if we put people to work building useful stuff instead of useless stuff. Power grid infrastructure, new bridges, new rail lines, etc.

I think this is really insightful. Misallocation of resources is what eventually brings down economies. There are lots of bright people around, but corruption can drain a lot of talent.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> The US subsidizes military costs for all of our allies. Speaking as one of those allies... not really. Often times US allies spend money they really don't want to in order to keep the US happy. Canada and the UK probably wouldn't have invaded Afghanistan if not for their obligations as US allies. That certainly wasn't cheap. Canada is soon to replace its fighter fleet. Will it buy to cheaper Saab Grippen? Or will…

This argument would be more persuasive if more countries actually met their recommended NATO spend. In reality it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Take for instance Germany. The federal republic increased their spend to $63.8b last year but that's still a shortfall of ~$27b relative to what a 2% spend would be. Aggressive estimates (above official estimates) of the UK's (a similar sized ally) spending on Afghanistan in 2…

Note that I did not mention germany, rather the US and canada, while the OP said "all of our allies". No two countries are ever the same. And NATO /= USA. There are lots of other organizations which would quality a country as an "ally" of the US other than NATO. Canada and the UK are linked to the US through numerous other organizations (eg NORAD).

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#456

Well, $100M for a device intended to be shot at! A device that's faster and slicker than everything else. That has a version that can fly vertically. If you're in the sf bay area, go take a tour of the SS Jeremiah O'Brien when things reopen. It's a WWII Liberty Ship freighter. They built well over 2000 of these things, fast, and cheap, to haul military stuff from continent to continent. They had to be fast to build:…

Arguably it is the wrong strategy, especially if the unspoken possibility of war with China becomes a spoken one. The USA has an edge in raw technological prowess. The F-35 plays to that strength, with tons of advanced technology that took a long time to master and develop. Setting up factories that can churn out cheap planes en-masse is certainly possible and if the USA found itself in a war of attrition it'd probably do that surprisingly fast. But why get into such a situation, in which the US would have no real advantage and perhaps some disadvantages, when it can compete on pure tech and build one plane that can take out many of the opponents cheap planes?

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#457

The saddest thing about all of this IMO is they have been working on this for 14 years, and how much money was spent/wasted? Now, read about Skunkworks - they were able to build the SR71 (without supercomputers) in less than half that time and for a fraction of the cost. This isn't just planes, this seems to be everything nowadays. Fission was discovered in 1938/1939 and we dropped two bombs on Japan in 1945. No chan…

Broad statements like Thiel's shouldn't be taken too literally. I don't think the main point is the broad statement about the trends themselves. The main point is the classification: Flying Cars vs 140 Characters or Bits vs Atoms. FB is worth almost $1trn. No real technical achievements or advancement. If fb didn't exist, something else would be the friendster. Tesla, Apple, MSFT, Google, etc. are closer to the flyin…

> Ancient civilizations managed to build incredible aqueduct systems, public buildings, etc. We've regressed.

This feels like an extreme take.

(Most) Every city in America has a functional clean water delivery network. Every city has electricity. Most cities have sewage. Most cities have very nice paved roads.

This is billions of miles of pipes, wires, roads, bridges, dams... Billions. And you're comparing what the US, and actually most economies, have accomplished in this domain to a handful of ancient roman aqueducts made of stone, transporting barely potable water, and saying that modern society has regressed? That's wild.

The public library in my city of ~800,000 people is twice the size of the Parthenon. Hell, there's a LITERAL 1:1 Parthenon replica in Nashville TN, which they basically built for the hell of it as a showcase for a fair. Across the street from me, they just finished up construction on a (I dare say, beautiful and modern) 32 story apartment building; a building like that would be the singular crown jewel of an ancient civilization, more advanced and useful than anything Rome ever built, and its not even remotely the only one in my 3rd tier US city, let alone worldwide.

Sure, the Pyramids of Giza are impressive. 455 feet tall, probably took a lifetime to build. You know who has a bigger pyramid? Fucking North Korea; the Ryugyong Hotel, 1082 feet tall, constructed in 1992. The Luxor Pyramid in Las Vegas is 350 feet tall, and its part of a fucking casino. The Memphis Pyramid in Tennessee, 321 feet tall, and its a BASS PRO SHOP. The pride-and-joy of Ancient Egypt, the effort of an entire civilization for decades, is nearly replicated in the US, and we use it to sell bait and tackle for fishing.

Is that regression? No. Its progression. We've gotten so good at putting buildings up and laying infrastructure that people are no longer impressed by any of it. Its easy to look at a Roman aqueduct as a massive feat of engineering; no one sees the miles upon miles of pipes below an average city that enable you to turn on a faucet and always have water (anomalous events aside like bad storms or the Flint crisis).

And now, squarely in the 21st century: No one sees the thousands of servers it takes to power google.com. No one sees the billions of miles of tiered fiber criss-crossing the country. No one sees the ten million dollar cooling systems, and the billions of person-hours that went into making it possible for you to search for "boobs" and receive back 1.4 billion fully indexed and browseable results. People ignore the 3.8 million pixels used to display those results on your screen. They disregard the 13.2 billion transistors in their graphics card, capable of 12 trillion floating point operations per second, and that any human in the country can order a laptop that has all of this and have it delivered to their doorstep in 48 hours. Even more impressively; most people can afford it.

The problem isn't that we've regressed. The problem is that we've lost appreciation for where we have progressed. Sure, a lot of it is by private corporations; but a lot of it isn't. And if that's what it takes to actually drive humanity forward, maybe that's the path we need to take.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#458
post #37

Probably the issue is that during wartime (and I think the Cold War counts) the object of a weapons program is to defend one’s country, whereas in the absence of any major foe the object of a weapons program is to spend money. From that standpoint the program was a spectacular success.

And the counterpoint is that spending money correctly is what prevents wartime with major foes.

I disagree, if anything, it just escalates the resulting conflict when it inevitably goes hot again.

Conflict never stops, it just becomes indiscernable from diplomacy.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#459

The saddest thing about all of this IMO is they have been working on this for 14 years, and how much money was spent/wasted? Now, read about Skunkworks - they were able to build the SR71 (without supercomputers) in less than half that time and for a fraction of the cost. This isn't just planes, this seems to be everything nowadays. Fission was discovered in 1938/1939 and we dropped two bombs on Japan in 1945. No chan…

For more detail on how effective Skunkworks was, read Kelly Johnson's book. It was recommended to me by a buddy at JPL and it's a wonderful view into how they did things on time and below budget on projects like the SR71. Not an affiliate link: https://www.amazon.com/Kelly-More-Than-Share-All/dp/08747449...

I love the problem solving stories. My favorite is the one about transporting the prototype from Washington to Nevada on a very wide trailer- which involved sawing signposts apart and bribing a bus driver...

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more than just a jobs program too. It's a reelection plan for senators/house members. Look at what states and districts get these big DoD contracts and then look at what committees the congressmen/women are sitting on. They approve plans that benefit them then direct the funds right into their districts so they can campaign on it. I mean it's not the worst form of corruption but it's pretty shitty when you reali…

How can we create new incentives to discourage this behavior and to encourage infrastructure projects that provide jobs as well as create superlinear value?

We did: pork spending was mostly outlawed in 2011 (the F-35 dates from way before that). But as it turns out, the cure was almost as bad as the disease. Getting rid of pork has accelerated hyper-partisanship and dysfunctional gridlock, because without it there's no incentive to ever try to reach a deal with the other side instead of digging in on no-compromise radicalism to please your base.
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