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The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

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Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#51
post #47

The test of a combat aircraft is in combat. Nobody will give a fuck what the programme cost or that it couldn’t do X if it gives you a decisive advantage in war. It’s fashionable to hate on the F-35, but let’s face it: if the allies have to establish air superiority somewhere in the world, they will be using F-35s to do so, and I’m not aware that anyone has the platform to stop them.

Empires fall from within. Yes, nobody will stop the US with military, and nobody would try because that's not how you win. You don't need a big military to crush the fragile supply chain that a plane like this demands.

I don’t really understand this line of reasoning; it’s not like the person bearing the most rudimentary weapons is at an advantage? What’s the plan, lose in aerial combat but win in a fist fight?

Who says it has a fragile supply chain anyway? It certainly has a complex one, but then so do things like nuclear weapons and nobody is clamouring to abandon them on that basis. Protecting that chain and the logistics around it is a staple of military operations. It’s not like someone is going to surprise them by going after supply chains.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#52
post #44
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drone swarms that can counter fighter jets is a concept that makes no sense. At best you can make something like a guided missile that can loiter. But I can't really see much benefit to that. It would still require the same the avionics and performance as a guided missile. Not to mention stealth aircraft counter the concept even further.

> But I can't really see much benefit to that Look at the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to see how much UAVs are a game-changer: https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-missile-war-nagorno-ka...

But how do you translate that into hitting something going Mach 1 at 40k feet? A UAV capable of attacking a jet can exist. My point is that it would need to be a fully capable aircraft not something that can be produced cheaply and deployed in swarms. There's a lot of space in the sky.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#53
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still have to shoot down a fighter jet to disable it. An enemy can't hack the pilot remotely and safely land it on their own air strips, which has happened with drones.

That seems like all the more reason to invest more in our cyber-warfare/security capabilities instead of dumping the money in machines designed to carry meat-bags.

> That seems like all the more reason to invest more in our cyber-warfare/security capabilities instead of dumping the money in machines designed to carry meat-bags.

We're talking about nation-state on nation-state hacking here. The kind of investment you're talking about would have to be absolutely massive, and even then it still might not do the job.

And even if that kind of investment in cyber-warfare/security capabilities is undertaken, the military isn't going to stop "dumping the money in machines designed to carry meat-bags" until after it's very clear the investment was successful. It's not realistic for a first rate to take the kind of risk you're talking about if it wants to remain first rate.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#54
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The F-35 failed because fighter jet airframes aren’t particularly relevant anymore. You can stick the same sensor systems and missiles on just about anything. Improved stealth etc is useful, but F-35’s are only slightly better than 40+ year old jets. Thus hardly worth the price vs cheaply manufacturing a minor update of an older design. Or as the saying goes “quantity has a quality all it’s own.”

Curious what your background is to make those statements. My experience from Red Flag and other exercises is that the 5th gens (22 & 35) have a much better K/D and survivability. When you expend all of your stand off weapons or need to get a B-2 deep into a contested airspace, including against SAMs, you need a 35 going in to do sanitization. No F-16 is fighting off both SAMs and a huge ass wave of J-10s or any J-20s…

I have some background wargaming for the DoD. As to Red Flag numbers generally reported, it was setup to heavily favor F-35’s. Amusingly at one point they further boosted the K/D ratio after the fact from 15:1 to 20:1.

Actual air war looks very different, with a significant focus on cruse missiles early on etc. But again, comparing the F35 with outdated equipment is missing the point.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#55
post #26
post #11

Why order more F-16s and miss out on all the rich contracting and design deal flow? Plus because the length of development is longer than pharma's, nobody involved in kicking off the project will be around to deal with the deployment problems. Make hay while the sun shines.

The F-16 was introduced in 1978 and no new F-16s have been purchased since 2001. Are you suggesting that they don't want new F-16s in 2021 because ... they want to make money? Isn't the simpler explanation that maybe a 42-year old design is out of date?

> Are you suggesting [...] they want to make money? Isn't the simpler explanation that maybe a 42-year old design is out of date?

I'm sorry I was too pithy. To answer your second question first:

Old aircraft are not inherently bad. The most famous case is the B-52, already in its sixties and when the current round of refurbishment completes (if it hasn't already) should continue fighting with airframes over a century old. The A-10 Thunderbolt (Warthog) is still in service despite many attempts to kill it as there is no replacement.

(Old aircraft aren't inherently good either; even the Harrier, despite being heavily used and not really having a replacement, eventually became too expensive to maintain)

The F-16 was brought up specifically in the article; the claim was that it is too difficult to upgrade its electronics, not that the airframe or engine were obsolete. Indeed the specific use case a new plane is being considered for is the kind of thing where an older, airworthy craft would be better (the station wagon vs Ferrari example from the article).

So for your first question, money: yes I am explicitly suggesting that. Without getting into the politics of consolidation in the US arms industry, since the B-1, weapons production has been structured in part as a jobs program (The B-1 was the first weapons system to explicitly have had its supply chain structured to have parts made in 100% of all congressional districts) while the purchasing procedures are so complex that they require ex military on the private sector side just to make them viable. That revolving door is not subject to any lobbying rules and is, TBH the only real retirement plan for senior officers below three star rank. And of course spending money on arms is always popular with the voters, as part of the "support the troops" slogan, even though the actual troopers, humans, get low pay, mixed-quality post-service health care (some amazingly excellent, other terrible) and are not protected against the depredations any number of predatory corporations while in the service. Oh, but that shiny gear shows off as well in the USA as it does in norks.

To be more charitable, generals and admirals also always want to push for the new and shiny because that's how they demonstrate status, in war and especially in peacetime. This is a social factor in all groups, this is merely how it manifests in military hierarchies world wide. Doesn't mean it's an effective use of funds nor that it necessarily improves warfighting (much less prevents it).

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#56
post #32
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worked around F16's and F22's when I was in and can attest that this is the source of the issue for upgrades. Everything in the software is so tightly coupled to the hardware that updating the F16's would be a monumental effort. The difference between a 4th and 5th generation air frame are night and day in terms of software capabilities. Hell, even the different between 5th generation jets can be massive on the softw…

Please forgive my ignorance of military processes involved. Could that be addressed by old software trick of modularising components - software and hardware-alike - and rely on some extensive semi-open protocols to connect these? I think car manufacturers have faced that at some time in the past, even inside single manufacturer (not sure if they have solved it completely). Sounds like they need Ada-like project, but…

Full disclosure: I don't work in defense, but I've read Wikipedia.

>>> I can't comment from the perspective of the F16 specifically, but from experience working on upgrade efforts of military and IC ground processing systems, the challenge is the legacy systems are very tightly coupled to the hardware. They make strong assumptions about register size and number, bus bandwidth, filesystem block size, all kinds of things...

>> Worked around F16's and F22's when I was in and can attest that this is the source of the issue for upgrades. Everything in the software is so tightly coupled to the hardware that updating the F16's would be a monumental effort.

> Could that be addressed by old software trick of modularising components - software and hardware-alike - and rely on some extensive semi-open protocols to connect these?

I think the military has already done that to a degree, see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIL-STD-1553 (serial data bus)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIL-STD-1750A (16-bit ISA)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_16 (tactical radio communication)

It sounds like there are two issues: 1) protocols and standards themselves can become obsolete, so it's like updating Apple II DOS to read a ZFS array (or a modern Mac to work with 5 1/4 floppy drives).

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#57
post #10

I would guess that the NGAD prototype[0] has given USAF leadership confidence to publicly alude to F-35 shortcomings. [0] https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34030586...

The NGAD Prototype is built upon some of the technology that the F-35 pioneered. The F-35 now is and has been used as an airframe to test more advanced technologies. Like distributed computing and autonomous technologies. So, it's reasonable to say that NGAD may not be possible if it weren't for the F-35. I'd argue this is less about the F-35's shortcomings and more about the fact that we're seeing a dramatic change…

Having also seen your comments elsewhere this thread, I'm wondering: Did you have a personal stake in the F-35?

"Failed" things nearly always embody good and great ideas that go on to be used in successful things. For example, the Newton was clearly a failure, and yet there are echos of it all over today's phones and tablets.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#58
post #32
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worked around F16's and F22's when I was in and can attest that this is the source of the issue for upgrades. Everything in the software is so tightly coupled to the hardware that updating the F16's would be a monumental effort. The difference between a 4th and 5th generation air frame are night and day in terms of software capabilities. Hell, even the different between 5th generation jets can be massive on the softw…

Please forgive my ignorance of military processes involved. Could that be addressed by old software trick of modularising components - software and hardware-alike - and rely on some extensive semi-open protocols to connect these? I think car manufacturers have faced that at some time in the past, even inside single manufacturer (not sure if they have solved it completely). Sounds like they need Ada-like project, but…

Maybe, but it isn't easy. Often the code is written around the performance of the hardware in question. Thus you still have to rewrite all the software before any new hardware can be used. Or write an emulator that is cycle perfect to hard real time standards. Neither is cheap or easy.

I know of companies (I can't talk about which) that spent a few billion dollars trying to replace old hardware, only to abandon the track taken and have to start over. All the while the stores of the obsolete and no longer made CPU are getting smaller and smaller. All this for a controller that marketing doesn't see any reason to add more features so they can't even justify some off the cost as new features.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#59

“The F-35 has failed” is a strong statement that depends on what your definition of success is. Did it fail because it couldn’t replace the F-16? Did it fail because it’s expensive and bloated? Do those things even matter? I’m not defending the F-35 but anyone deeply and intimately familiar with the platform knows and understands that it is a Ferrari. You don’t bring your Acura TSX to a Formula 1 race track to win a…

> Not the success criteria some folks have perpetuated or thrust upon the project. This isn't an art project where interpretation is in the eye of the beholder. This is a taxpayer-funded set of contracts; the success criteria are defined as part of said contracts, they're not "thrust upon" the project by "some folks". Your trickle down benefits would come from any innovative project, whether it were a success or a fa…

In industry when you realize a project is going to fail it is common to pack it with a bunch of marginally related things that you want in your project but cannot afford. Then when they complete what you want you take it for no cost. It makes your project look better on the bottom line (ROI or whatever metric accountants use to judge), and the other project eventually is written off.

Would the company be better off just paying for the things they want in each project and accepting a lower ROI is an open question. I just watch the game, not make the rules.

Re: The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed

#60
post #37

Probably the issue is that during wartime (and I think the Cold War counts) the object of a weapons program is to defend one’s country, whereas in the absence of any major foe the object of a weapons program is to spend money. From that standpoint the program was a spectacular success.

And the counterpoint is that spending money correctly is what prevents wartime with major foes.

Fine in theory. In practice you know only in hindsight if you spent the money incorrectly. If you spend your money correctly that looks just like spending your money incorrectly and getting lucky in hindsight.

So we end up with a lot of politics where people say "I'm right, because [insert some factor that may or may not be relevant]", and then argue about who is right.

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