Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not clear to me how illustrating the flaws in one country’s healthcare system should affect the decision of another’s who hasn’t experienced the same flaws even with greater per-capita cases of the virus. My comment was geared towards America because I’m an American talking on a forum operated by an American company. Italy can lock down to their heart’s content- that’s their prerogative.
For an average person, Italy, Spain and the UK have better healthcare systems than the US by most metrics. The US is only better for some very obscure and exotic diseases that require expensive and rare treatments that most US citizens wouldn’t be able to afford or wouldn’t be covered for under their health care plans.
Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
351–360 of 361 posts
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#352Earlier quoted context omitted.
Depends on where you live, in the Midwest the peak was more around Halloween in October. You can hardly find Thanksgiving in any data (and then you probably have to squint and ignore proper statistics) By Chirstmas/new year things were clearly in decline. Other areas of course have different results.
In those areas, has the rate of decline just been consistently downward? Has vaccine introduction had any measurable impact?
The vaccines seem to have an impact, but it is hard to be sure. There are a lot less old (>65) in the new infected list, which used to dominate the list. The younger groups seems to be be about even by age group. However there are many potential confounding factors, and I haven't done a proper statistical analysis so I don't want to claim something.
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#353Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but you're still stuck with a population who remains very susceptible to the diseases. Lockdowns, as I'm sure Australia will discover, are not a complete solution to the problem.
We're pretty happy here in Australia with how few of our friends and family have been affected by COVID. Life is practically back to normal and has been this way in Sydney for a while. Vaccination roll-out started this week. You'd be hard pushed to find a single person who would trade our state's response with pretty much any other countries response.
-- Lefty Gomez
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#354Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes! I am from the Indian Subcontinent, I know people who went back to the country to get the Oxford vaccine, because the rollout is great and it is "open season" over there already. Converse is also true- rich people who were doubtful about a vaccine manufactured in India booked came to US to get both Moderna and Pfizer shots.
How are folks from India able to get vaccine here? Is there someone selling it to the highest bidder?
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
Small percentages of people suffer complications from many different types of illnesses. At a certain point, human beings simply have to live with a small chance of a bad outcome from ailments that are normally mild.
This isn't some small percentage of people this is 3 - 8% [1] of people hospitalized! Despite not finding data for people not hospitalized many report suffering from and being hospitalized for failures of the pulmonary, endocrine, and digestive system. Sometimes people have strokes from sneezing. See I can make generalizing statements about bullshit too. [1]: https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10…
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#356Earlier quoted context omitted.
Small percentages of people suffer complications from many different types of illnesses. At a certain point, human beings simply have to live with a small chance of a bad outcome from ailments that are normally mild.
1 in 10 patients die within months of leaving hospital. https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1362863221305192450?... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospit... > More than one in 10 Covid patients died within five months of being discharged from hospital, while almost a third of those who survived the virus had to be readmitted, new research has warned. > Papers released by the governments Sci…
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
Table 3 and Figure 2 make it clear that the hazard ratios for patients with hospitalization and/or encephalopathy are multiples higher for those without hospitalization and/or encephalopathy. Intracranial haemorrhage is 3-4x more likely in hospitalized patients; ~5x higher in those with encephalopathy. For stroke, 2-3x for both. For first mood disorder, 1.5x/2x more likely. They don't break down the cross-tabs by age…
Yes you are right. I looked into the authors research and found a more recent paper that breaks it down by age https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0... Figure 3 has risk ratios sliced by age+sex
There's far too much to get into in a single comment, but the TL;DR is that they bury a lot of important information in the supplemental materials [1] that make a strong argument that what they're observing are spurious correlations with a third factor. At the very least, this kind of statistical fishing expedition has a high risk of bias, because the researchers know the outcomes ahead of time.
Consider supplementary tables 10 & 11: these show that a large number of the "psychiatric sequelae" are correlated with the control conditions, and the effect of Covid is not significantly different (even where they are, the authors have clearly gone on a fishing expedition, which should make you skeptical).
Figures 16-21 show that the risk of a patient developing Covid is 1.5x greater if they've had a recent psychological illness. This is on par with the risk ratios discussed in the text of the paper, and indicates that the association is not necessarily causative (i.e. it's not clear if Covid causes psychiatric problems or vice-versa).
Figure 22 shows a particularly interesting series of plots, where the diagnosis rates of the control illnesses (broken bones, etc.) are plotted over time. Without exception, everything drops but Covid. It is almost inevitable that if you look at this dataset, you will find an increase in diagnosis of X after Covid...because Covid patients are being seen at much higher rates!
Overall, my interpretation of the supplementary figures is that there was an intense focus on "Covid patients" in 2020, and all other groups stayed out of the doctor's office. Covid patients were showing up in the clinic, so covid patients were the ones being diagnosed with other illnesses.
[1] https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30462-4/...
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#358Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pretty much all countries are distributing vaccine to the elderly / at-risk population first. We're doing that for the obvious reason that the most-at-risk population is most-at-risk, and thus most at risk of hospitalization. Concretely, that means hospitalization rates should decline a LOT faster than community spread. This is going to be less visible in countries that have their shit together and are able to vaccin…
The #1 group in the USA was not "at-risk" population, but doctors, nurses, and other front-line staff. The idea is that these groups are seeing many, many COVID19 patients and therefore have a big risk at spreading the virus around. Once this "Priority 1A" group was vaccinated, then age 75+ individuals were vaccinated in Priority 1B. Even then, Postal Office employees and Grocery Store workers (other "high impact" wo…
Michigan reports having given at least 1 shot to about 40% of over 75. Eligibility overlaps quite a lot rather than dictating the precise order.
See the coverage metrics tab for age group coverage in MI: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_1032...
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#359Earlier quoted context omitted.
Average age 40, as you said yourself. And then as the authors of this paper find, "Risks were greatest in, but not limited to, those who had severe COVID-19."
Framing an "average age of 40" as "an older demographic" seems a bit misleading, as the average age of human beings in America is 38. We're not talking a few sickly senior citizens here (which, even if we were, I wouldn't feel justified in writing off, but it's not).
Your thymus is very likely to be useless after 40 due to something called thymus involution.
Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 35k per year from influenza is literally an order of magnitude less than the current death toll But it kills consistently year after year, decade after decade. Influenza has been consistently killing for how many years in a row before covid showed up? So really, the "current death toll" of the flu is in the many millions by now. Unless you reset the count after every year in which case covid's death count doesn't g…
Well maybe you didn’t study have to study history at school. But I did and we learnt that the 1918 flu killed more people than WW1.