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Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

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201–210 of 517 posts

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Madoff took in large sums of money, gave out little and lied about solvency. That's exactly what Tether has done? Large sums? Check - tens of billions. Gave out little? Check - https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-explains-why-it-hasnt-... . Lied about solvency? They admit in this suit that they weren't 1:1 backed, despite asserting it on their website. They also claimed to be regularly audited, until they had to…

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not supporting Tether. Tether may completely fall off the edge of the world and nobody would care. There would be a minor impact on the price of bitcoin and things will move on. As I mentioned, I believe the proof of insolvency is weak, but I don't think it matters long term either way. Better alternatives will supercede them soon enough. USDC and possibly Libra will be excellent choices.

> USDC and possibly Libra will be excellent choices

https://www.coindesk.com/libra-diem-rebrand

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#202

Honestly, this is kind of a nothingburger. The press release seems to merely reinforce what was an open secret in the cryptocurrency world, which is that Bitfinex and Tether have played fast and loose with whatever reserves they received for their Tether issuance. Which is, of course, utterly unremarkable to anyone who knows anything about how financial sausage is really made. Bitfinex and Tether are shady. Caveat em…

This is not "utterly unremarkable". Rational investors don't buy investments whose very basis is a lie. It's only unremarkable to cryptocurrency gamblers who've already accepted everything they're doing is a slow motion scam.

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#203

I'm waiting patiently for the whole Tether printing scheme to fall and crush to finally purchase Bitcoin / Ether. However I'm not viewing them as inflation hedges so long as Bitfinex / etc. are allowed to continue with their obvious money printing scheme. When most crypto trading volume is traded at trustworthy exchanges which actually hold dollars as much as they say they do, I'll trust $/BTC to be a fair market. It…

I have the same doubts you do about Tether's legitimacy, but there's a few conclusions I believe you're jumping to which I think don't quite hold: - Tether's volumes being greater than other crypto-currencies don't have much impact on the legitimacy of other crypto-currencies. The volume is so high because USDT is the other side of most crypto-currency trading pair. Given the liquidity of the market, you can trade al…

> - Even if everything alleged were true, it really wouldn't be a drop in the bucket compared to the kind of shenanigans central banks have been pulling for centuries. If the crypto-currency market is illegitimate due to money printing by Tether, then so is the conventional financial system due to quantitive easing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world.

Currently Tether is printing $3.5B worth of Tether per week.

They, and supporters are claiming with a straight face that those printings are supported by USD deposits. But who knows what bank this supposed $180B/year is going into?

Recognizing that revenue is not a straight comparative metric (but that much revenue is banked and/or/then invested), that would put Tether's deposit rate at the top 20 in the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_r...). We're going to need to accept that there's some pretty large optimism needed to believe this.

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks prices get negatively impacted by rising interest rates. With interest rates at ~0%, there's little money to be made in bonds, savings accounts, or anything that pays interest income, so people put money into stocks w/ the hope the stocks will go up. When interest rates go up to fight inflation, there's more incentive to put money into bond markets, which means there's not as much money going into stocks, whic…

What’s your recommendation for least-worse inflation hedge?

Land is the typical recommendation. A noisy crowd thinks gold is a good hedge. Personally, I think that high quality companies with pricing power should retain their value; Coca-Cola and Apple can probably increase their prices to compensate for inflation, leading to increased earnings, leading to increased stock price (the increase compensating for inflation).

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stocks prices get negatively impacted by rising interest rates. With interest rates at ~0%, there's little money to be made in bonds, savings accounts, or anything that pays interest income, so people put money into stocks w/ the hope the stocks will go up. When interest rates go up to fight inflation, there's more incentive to put money into bond markets, which means there's not as much money going into stocks, whic…

What’s your recommendation for least-worse inflation hedge?

I'm mostly kidding... Buy forever stamps from USPS. As they raise the price of postage, your stamps will go up in value, and then you can sell them for a profit! This is probably a terrible idea, but it makes me giggle.

Now I'm imaging some sort of push on r/wallstreetbets to YOLO on stamps, posting insane strategies on how to predict when the price of postage will go up, by how much, and how liquid the market is for millions of stamps.

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#207
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can inflate the money supply and still be "deflationary" if the convenience yield of holding the money (tokens, UTXOs, or whatnot) exceeds or neutralize that inflation rate. You make an excellent point, Bitcoin doesn't have to overtake gold or become a global-reserve to change the world. It just has to be a plausible alternative that enables people to opt-in or out of the system. It has largely already achieved t…

It has? Bitcoin isn’t an alternative to the existing system for people. It might be a digital alternative to gold for people hedging inflation or in failed states, but its transaction fee is just way too high to be a practical alternative to anything but, like, wire transfers (Visa and ACH are WAY cheaper except for huge transfers... and Bitcoin isn’t particularly fast, either). And this high cost is driven by the fu…

If you live in a country with a highly functional banking system and no kleptocracy, Bitcoin is probably a bit puzzling unless you have family in Cuba. But it's not puzzling at all for those of us who live somewhere in the middle of the broad spectrum between Switzerland and Somalia, because most places have a little kleptocracy. Argentina is far from being "a failed state," but if you want to send US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means it's basically impossible, and the only broadly available savings vehicle is real estate ("ahorrar en ladrillos"), which of course grossly inflates real-estate prices, with a substantial part of the capital city occupied by empty apartments someone bought "as an investment". Historically Argentines have saved by buying dollars but that's limited to US$200 a month now, and then only if you have a non-under-the-table job (about a third of total employment is under the table):

https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-...

You can see that in September 02019 when this measure was imposed the price of a dollar was AR$63.50; now it's AR$147. So whatever savings you had in pesos in 02019 have lost 57% of their value to peso devaluation.

In 02001 a lot of Argentines had saved dollars in their dollar-denominated bank accounts. This did not preserve their savings through the financial crisis that year; the cash-strapped government limited withdrawals to a trickle, then converted dollar deposits to pesos at a one-to-one rate, then released the exchange-rate peg, at which point peso went overnight from being worth US$1 to being worth US$0.25 before settling at about US$0.31 for the next few years.

You suggest, "alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power," but Credicoop depositors suffered the same two-thirds confiscation of savings as depositors in for-profit banks. And they pay the same 3% tax on bank transactions including checks. That's more than a fast Bitcoin transaction fee of US$15 for transactions over US$500.

But we're not a failed state. There are no gangs of bandits roving the streets in Argentine cities (though there are some pretty bad slums where you'll get robbed if you wander in without knowing anybody). Courts, free public hospitals, and roads continue to function, though there are more potholes than a year ago. Argentine infant mortality is 10 per 1000 live births, down from almost 20 in the late 01990s and the same as the late 01980s in the US; life expectancy at birth is 77 years, worse than Switzerland's 84, but the same as China and Hungary, and better than Saudi or Mexico. (Somalia is 54.)

Most of the world is worse off than Argentina, although not necessarily in such a statistically transparent fashion. About one fourth of the people in the world are unbanked, 51% here in Argentina; even advanced countries like Russia, Hungary, and Uruguay have roughly a quarter of the population unbanked:

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-...

And if your family lives in a country like Iran or Venezuela subject to US sanctions, and you live in the US? Good luck sending them an ACH, instant or otherwise! It's well known that Bitcoin is very popular in Venezuela, which kind of is a failed state, so one of the Venezuelan governments is trying to tax Bitcoin remittances at 15%.

https://archive.fo/ZRXzS

Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars per year in such remittances. This might seem like a trivial amount of money to someone in a rich country, but in poor countries, it's enough to keep several million people alive.

Even in the US, it's common for the police to confiscate large amounts of paper currency just because they can ("civil forfeiture"); US bank accounts are probably fine for US$100K but probably somewhat risky for US$10M if the bank thinks you don't seem like the kind of person who ought to have it. US$10M in US$100 bills fits in a box you can wheel around on a dolly, but Bitcoin is a lot more practical. (And of course US$10M in dollar bills loses about US$200k per year to inflation.)

So, Bitcoin doesn't have to be a cypherpunk utopia to be a big improvement on the status quo ante. For those of you living in stable countries where your worries are things like "instant and extremely low-fee ACHs" and "decentralized utopia", this may be very confusing, but try to remember that most of the world lives in places with much more pressing concerns, concerns that Bitcoin helps a lot with. And you may live there too, soon — the loyal subjects of Kaiser Wilhelm in 01913 certainly didn't expect that in 15 years they'd be in the middle of a hyperinflation episode that remains legendary a century later.

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#208
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story is that Tether has been printing tethers and buying Bitcoins. However, they haven't released any concrete holdings or submitted to an audit AFAIK, so there's a lot of speculation on how big of a problem this actually is.

I don't think there are any claims that Tether the organization itself is doing anything like that. They just print USDT and send it to people who are interested in buying USDT like exchanges. The two problems as I see them are: - Is USDT actually backed 1:1 by USD / cash equivalents as Tether claims? w/o independent audits we have no idea. So technically, if you hold USDT on an exchange and use it to trade alts and…

> - Is USDT actually backed 1:1 by USD / cash equivalents as Tether claims? w/o independent audits we have no idea.

I'm going to say no. Because Tether refuses audit, refuses to name banks, and would be, based on their printing rates, depositing $3.5B USD a week into their bank (a rate which would put them on par with AT&T, Samsung, or Alphabet). I'm not sure how a few people working out of Hong Kong, etc., do that while sliding under the radar and avoiding scrutiny (from their bank or authorities).

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is supremely ironic that we’re supposed to believe that the best way to escape money printing is to buy a cryptocurrency that was invented out of thin air, which is continuously mined (during most of our lifetimes) out of thin air by doing useless calculations. Or even worse, a basket of multiple crypto currencies, where the number of available crypto currencies and crypto assets grows larger every day.

I saw a great comment earlier, "Buying bitcoin to hedge against inflation is like buying lotto tickets to hedge against Apple stock declines."

That makes no sense.

Lotto tickets have an expiration date. No value fluctuation over time. At expiry, they're worth X or zero.

How is that like Bitcoin?

Re: Bitfinex and Tether required to end all trading activity with New Yorkers

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buy all the non perishables, non obsoletables you're going to need for the next decade. Buy them in discounted bulk for and extra return. Bonus: capital gains tax free!

Not very practical if the amount to be preserved is multiple 7 figures, I should have clarified my question better.

US$5M is a bit under 100 kg of gold or 6 tonnes of silver. Might not be a bad idea to spend a few percent of that on hiring security guards and stocking up on perishables to feed them an their families.
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