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Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

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Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That does not increase the real value of those assets, Exactly correct. It decreases the value of the money use to pay for them, resulting in a higher nominal price and fewer people in society who are able to afford them, resulting in less access to capital for the majority of society. > and it does not have any distributional consequences. False. When assets go up relative to currency, fewer buyers can compete for…

"Low, stable inflation increases inequality" is not a statement that you could find much agreement on from economists. Also, Krugman is just a pop-econ writer at this point. He is not a big deal in the economics profession. Yes, I am sure he understands how inflation and sticky wages interact. I am not so convinced that you understand it. Just going to repost my other comment for you to puzzle over: "You are purposef…

> You claim that central banks depreciate the currency because they "think wages among the working class are too high." But rhetorically, you are doing more than just referring to the explanation I gave above. You are implying that central banks "think" working class wages are too high, and want to lower them to hurt working class people.

Oh I know it does seem like the banks “want to hurt working class people” when you look at what they are doing and why. But thats an unnecessary hypothesis. They don’t need to care about working class people at all, just the financial interests of the oligarchs.

> Which is the opposite of the standard explanation - the purpose of inflation in that instance is to implicitly reduce the downward rigidity of wages so that employment does not contract as much in a downturn.

In other words, trick the workers into taking a pay cut, because they make too much money. “For their own good” and how convenient that it happens to pump up the assets that the wealthy own.

> Presumably you, champion of the working class, would rather more people be unemployed?

I want them to be unemployed the same way you want them to make less money in real terms.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#72
post #7

"I also think measures of price inflation are almost useless over the long run, because a person today consumes a very different bundle of goods than one in, say, 1950." I agree with this wholeheartedly. How do we put a value on the fact that, for the cost of no more than a day's labor, most in the US can have a handheld device with access to nearly the sum total of the world's knowledge and entertainment? No one, at…

Sure you can have the entire worlds information and entertainment at your fingertips with a $50 smartphone, but if you can't afford to have a roof over your head I'd argue the smartphone is irrelevant. I don't think we should be including basic necessities alongside improvements in entertainment in the same statistic, because it will just hide problems.

>but if you can't afford to have a roof over your head I'd argue the smartphone is irrelevant.

The problem is that hosing (specifically land) is fundamentally a scarce resource, and since the 50s competition has only gotten higher (total population going up, people becoming more concentrated into cities). It's not that shelter has gotten more expensive, it's shelter in desirable places have gotten more expensive.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've stated a bunch of stuff as fact without sources. > Yes, exactly. This allows wealthy people to borrow money and pay it back with less value. It lets everyone do so, and as a fraction of net worth, the poor are way disproportionately exposed, and hence benefit. A billionaire with $1B in net worth isn't leveraged to 10B in real estate. Someone worth $10K may easily have $100K in mortgage debt, however. Why do yo…

> It lets everyone do so Citation for your claim that everyone has access to cheap credit. Are you aware of payday loans? [0] > and as a fraction of net worth, the poor are way disproportionately exposed, and hence benefit. Citation needed for your claim that the poor can access these low interest rates. > A billionaire with $1B in net worth isn't leveraged to 10B in real estate. Citation needed. Why do you think a p…

Oh my where to even begin.

> Citation for your claim that everyone has access to cheap credit. Are you aware of payday loans?

I have at no point stated that. What I said is that inflation affects all debts equally.

Interest rate on loans is defined on "cost plus" basis, where "cost" is the treasury interest rate, and the "plus" is based on your default risk. However, the "cost" is the same for everyone no matter what.

Inflation isn't even the "cost" term. Inflation reduces the value of the principal of every loan the same amount regardless of who took it out or at what interest rate. The principal. Not the interest.

That knocks out your first 5 or 6 points.

> Do you mean someone worth $110k has a $100k mortgage? Or do you mean someone worth -$90k has $10k in assets and liabilities totalling $100k?

You can get a mortgage with as little as 3% down payment, so yes, I am referring to someone who has a $100K mortgage debt, a $100K house an $10K in other, misc assets like savings or investments. This person is leveraged 10X. I don't know for a fact billionaires don't leverage themselves 10X but I can't fathom why they would unless they're on r/WallStreetBets.

> No, the bankers are the ones who made the conscious decision. Good rhetorical judo tho.

Ok so a business sees their revenues go up 2%, and their costs go up 2%, and during annual comp review they say... "let's set the increase in salaries at 0% even though we know inflation is 2%" -- the bankers did that? Were they on the conference call? That's a lot of calls to schedule!

> Some of it is basically common knowledge, like poor people not having the collaterall, credit history, or social value required to access the same loans as billionaires. Some of it just seems like fundamental misunderstanding on your part, like your belief that all prices inflate at the same rate.

You introduced all of these things, not me, and you did so based on a misunderstanding of my point.

C'mon Quixote, put down the lance.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That does not increase the real value of those assets, Exactly correct. It decreases the value of the money use to pay for them, resulting in a higher nominal price and fewer people in society who are able to afford them, resulting in less access to capital for the majority of society. > and it does not have any distributional consequences. False. When assets go up relative to currency, fewer buyers can compete for…

> It decreases the value of the money use to pay for them That is meaningless, though. Imagine last year you bought some asset, that someone else did not, and it appreciated 2% with the price level. You are not any better off. I see you are implying that the other person "couldn't afford" to invest and kept their money in cash instead, to argue that the other person is worse off. That is also wrong - the issue here i…

> Imagine last year you bought some asset, that someone else did not, and it appreciated 2% with the price level. You are not any better off.

I am better off if the nominal value of that asset matters, which it does if I want to sell it or leverage it. And anyone on a dollar denominated income is worse off.

> I see you are implying that the other person "couldn't afford" to invest and kept their money in cash instead, to argue that the other person is worse off.

You misunderstand, they don’t need to “keep their money in cash”. The asset price increased. Thats all. They are paid less in real terms, by design, therefore the asset costs more to them, because of inflation.

> the issue here is holding cash, not the wealth disparity.

This applies to people who are paid in dollars, it does not require them to hold them.

> Don't hold cash if you are worried about inflation.

Obviously the wealthy are in much better position to take this advice than the middle class, the working class, and the poor. Therefore inflation benefits the wealthy disproportionately.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That does not increase the real value of those assets, Exactly correct. It decreases the value of the money use to pay for them, resulting in a higher nominal price and fewer people in society who are able to afford them, resulting in less access to capital for the majority of society. > and it does not have any distributional consequences. False. When assets go up relative to currency, fewer buyers can compete for…

> When assets go up relative to currency, fewer buyers can compete for those assets, leading to the wealthy owning more and the poor getting poorer. Boy are you going to freak out when you learn about stock splits and fractional share investing.

> Boy are you going to freak out when you learn about stock splits and fractional share investing.

You really must be confused if you think thats a rebuttal.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Low, stable inflation increases inequality" is not a statement that you could find much agreement on from economists. Also, Krugman is just a pop-econ writer at this point. He is not a big deal in the economics profession. Yes, I am sure he understands how inflation and sticky wages interact. I am not so convinced that you understand it. Just going to repost my other comment for you to puzzle over: "You are purposef…

> You claim that central banks depreciate the currency because they "think wages among the working class are too high." But rhetorically, you are doing more than just referring to the explanation I gave above. You are implying that central banks "think" working class wages are too high, and want to lower them to hurt working class people. Oh I know it does seem like the banks “want to hurt working class people” when…

[deleted]

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair it's not a real Nobel prize. It's paid for by a bank and it was first issued in 1968. One of Nobel's descendants is on record speculating that Nobel would never have agreed to the award. It's very much about public relations for the field of economics. The field's effect on the world has been to undermine democratic governments through the establishment of treaties that people never voted for and organizat…

it was a joke...

I was piling on but could have done a better job with the opening statement to articulate this, yes. I’ll take every opportunity to point out the Nobel prize issue because I think it has created real harm. The equity of the real Nobel prizes is being exploited to gloss over alarming gaps in the field. These gaps have led to real harm and yet they’re jokingly dismissed.

Some of the smartest people in the field are actively trying to obscure its limitations. The author of this article is more modest but even still it’s a PR rebuttal and a bullshit fear tactic: a “You know what? Things are really bad but what would be worse is if you didn’t listen to us”.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#78
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it doesn't, though. Inflation only matters from the time you receive your paycheck to the time you invest it in productive assets or buy the necessities of life. After that it sets the benchmark rate of return for your investments. If your salary fails to track inflation that's between you and your boss who's giving you a pay cut year over year, or between you and congress if you're under the minimum wage umbre…

> Well, they also fought for slavery, they weren't perfect people. They did not, under any reasonable interpretation of US history, “fight for slavery”.

Well they sure didn't fight against it. We the people didn't exactly include "we the black people" or "we the womenfolk." Slaveholders outnumbers non-slaveholders 2:1 and men outnumbered women 1:0. [1] Some of the founding fathers were slaveholders and pro-slavery. Not all. My point remains that they were fallible humans, and it's really strange to hear folks appeal to these proto-deities 300 years later on matters of modern economics.

Nobody in England asks "What would William Pitt the Elder do?" [2] - I'm not sure, but I suspect it wouldn't be compatible with modern life.

[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Founding-Fathers-and-Sl...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Pitt,_1st_Earl_of_Chat...

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Only because the wealthy benefit from depreciating currency. Net debtors benefit from a depreciating currency, in first order effects. Beyond first order effects, a currency with gradual depreciation but low volatility benefits everyone. As everyone includes the rich, it is true that they benefit, but not especially true. > the units depreciated because the oligarchs want workers’ wages to go down. The alternative…

> As everyone includes the rich, it is true that they benefit, but not especially true. Asst holders benefit disproportionately, as do debtors. The people who benefit most have both assets and debt. These are wealthy people. > The alternative is not “employment at the same wages” when demand drops, it's “production cuts and unemployment, resulting in larger second order demand drop, resulting in more production cuts…

> Asst holders benefit disproportionately

No, they don't. Clearly dollar-denominated asset holders lose by first order effects, though they might see reduced risk as second+-order effects. Non-dollar-denominated asset holders see no real gains as first-order effects, they only see them indirectly from the absence of production cuts and demand throughout the economy, but those are much smaller proportional benefits than the people who would be unemployed by those cuts face.

> So by tricking people into taking less compensation for the same amount of work, we benefit how?

We benefit because otherwise those jobs would be lost entirely, along with the associated production which is worse in first order terms, but because it both reduces output and contracts demand, has second-order effects that would result in more job losses and production cuts. If the workers individually prefer not to be employed than to be employed at reduced real wages, they of course can voluntarily choose not to work (which by contracting supply will drive up wages for the remaining workers.)

> If demand decreases then production should decrease, because less production is indicated.

Yes, naturally if demand decreases both market-clearing price and market-clearing quantity should decrease. Wage stickiness pushes that all into quantity and not price cuts, which is more disruptive than smaller quantity cuts with some price cuts (both for the produced goods and the labor to produce them.)

> When the automobile replaced the horse-and-buggy, demand for buggy whips decreased as it should have. printing money so that the buggy whip makers didn’t notice that there was less demand for their product would have been a disservice.

Inflation doesn't prevent manufacturers from noticing demand cuts, it just makes it more possible for them to cut prices as well as quantity in response to demand fluctuations, which—especially with transitory fluctuations, though this is true more generally, outside of a catastrophic drop to zero demand, where it has no effect either way—has less adverse knock-on effects.

Re: Four Basic Truths of Macroeconomics

#80
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Non-monetary problems like oil shocks and pandemics can cause recessions It wasn't the oil shock of the 70's that caused recession. It was our response to it - Nixon's oil and gas price & allocation controls. We came out of that when Reagan repealed it. Our current recession is not caused by the pandemic, but the lockdown response to it.

That seems like a silly splitting of hairs. Why stop there? By that logic the recession is not caused by the lockdown but by less businesses being open and reduced consumer spending.

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