Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#331

Post by tialaramex » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:13 AM UTC

choward wrote: post #289

laurencerowe wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big advantage of getting to zero is that after the initial severe lockdown life gets mostly back to normal.

Not really. They still have outbreaks and do lockdowns. I wouldn't call that "mostly back to normal". https://apnews.com/article/new-zealand-coronavirus-pandemic-...

That's true. They do have outbreaks, about half a dozen people this time, perhaps related to a job at a laundry working with quarantine facilities.

For several days Auckland residents couldn't go to the pub.

Normally of course they can go to the pub. Or a night club. Or a packed stadium to watch sports.

But it's true that for several days last week in Auckland they weren't allowed to do that. And the same back in... September maybe? And according to you that isn't "mostly back to normal" so we can assume you believe it isn't "mostly back to normal" anywhere and never will be. That's just not a very useful benchmark.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#332

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:14 AM UTC

nickpp wrote: post #166

jedberg wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AZ vaccine still needs to be produced, it isn't sitting in a warehouse somewhere. The amount of time it would take to make AZ vaccine is the same as making the other Pfizer/Moderna vaccines. It's unlikely it would increase supply at all.

I disagree, 3 vaccine sources should be better than 2. Now, if the US hasn't contracted any AZ vaccine, then you're right and the whole discussion is moot.

AZ has been withdrawn in South Africa because it doesn't work well against the South Africa variant, which is also now known to be experiencing community spread in several parts of the US. So, whether the US (which wasn't alone in not approving it) was right to reject it based on information available in the past, it doesn't seem like it's something we want to try to gear up for now.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#333

Post by rcpt » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:23 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #263

rcpt wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I struggle to see how you reached that interpretation of the paper.

Table 3 and Figure 2 make it clear that the hazard ratios for patients with hospitalization and/or encephalopathy are multiples higher for those without hospitalization and/or encephalopathy. Intracranial haemorrhage is 3-4x more likely in hospitalized patients; ~5x higher in those with encephalopathy. For stroke, 2-3x for both. For first mood disorder, 1.5x/2x more likely. They don't break down the cross-tabs by age…

Yes you are right. I looked into the authors research and found a more recent paper that breaks it down by age

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0...

Figure 3 has risk ratios sliced by age+sex

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#334

Post by mikem170 » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:37 AM UTC

orra wrote: post #301

NovaJehovah wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the "long covid" stuff is essentially fear mongering. There's no science behind it. The implication is that everyone should be terrified, stay home as much as possible, and wear masks as long as there's any chance of catching covid. Even after being vaccinated. Sure, people flout the restrictions, and they are met with social disapproval for doing so. The worst thing is the hugely negative psychological effect th…

> All the "long covid" stuff is essentially fear mongering. There's no science behind it. That's not true. Studies are showing large fractions, say 10-25% of COVID patients are suffering symptoms after a month. COVID infections have demonstrably damaged pretty much every organ in the body. That's very different from the initial assumption, whence all policy, that COVID is like the flu, and passes in two weeks if it d…

I believe that the flu causes more long term damage than people give it credit for. For example, here's a paper talking about the flu and heart swelling: [0]

> During the Sheffield, England influenza epi- demic from 1972 to 1973, the cases of 50 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed as mild cases and were treated on an outpatient basis were followed. Transient electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were seen in 18 patients, and long-lasting changes were seen in 5 patients.

It could be that the flu is worse than covid in this regard, the few studies I looked at were surprising/sobering. They were talking for years about "long-flu" after the 1918 pandemic.

Until we have numbers to back it up I would not make the assumption that covid is any worse or different in this regard. Conventional wisdom is that every virus that attacks the body leaves some people with long term lung, heart, and or brain damage.

[0] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685...

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#335

Post by tialaramex » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:45 AM UTC

nickpp wrote: post #149

jedberg wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumiracoxib -- Approved in Europe, not the USA. Withdrawn from sales due to side effects. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimelidine -- Same. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolrestat -- Approved in Europe, failed stage 3 clinical in the USA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimonabant -- Approved in Europe, failed in the USA, withdrawn worldwide because the side effects were so bad. Thalidomide…

OK, but if any of those was actually saving lives I'd argue it should've been approved, side effects be damned. Last time I looked, thousands of people were dying every day of Covid. Ignoring those just in case a vaccine is harmful is, IMHO, a bad tradeoff and I don't trust the people making it in my name. I prefer, in life-or-death situations, making my own (informed) decisions.

"Side effects be damned" makes no sense.

Thalidomide is authorised for use in many countries today. It's just that the prescriber has to consider whether their patient could be or become pregnant, and ensure that if the patient could become pregnant they understand that this would be extremely bad.

For its original intended purpose this makes it useless, nobody feeling a bit nauseous wants a medical exam plus an hour lecture about contraceptives, but if you have leprosy and other drugs aren't working, Thalidomide might make a real difference to your life despite the scary contra-indications.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#336

Post by umvi » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 1:52 AM UTC

mplanchard wrote: post #311

umvi wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The IFR for COVID is likely ten times that, at least in societies with decent numbers of older people. Right I purposely picked a disease less deadly than covid that could still overwhelm the healthcare system > This isn't a bad flu season in a 5 year cycle. The excess deaths caused by COVID last year are not just 'abnormally high'. They're more like once in a lifetime abnormally high. Right, and I still maintain t…

This kind of cavalier attitude towards half a million people dying bothers me, particularly when it’s very likely that our death totals are significantly higher than they could have been with better adherence to guidelines, better guidelines to begin with, etc. Those excess deaths won’t be so quickly forgotten by people who have lost family and friends. Should we be pragmatic in public policy? Of course. You can’t pr…

> This kind of cavalier attitude towards half a million people dying bothers me

> I really don’t think we’ll look back on this and think, “Eh, a half a million people died, oh well,”

Well, we look back on the past 2 decades (2000-2020) and think "eh, 700k+ people (mainly the elderly) have died from influenza, oh well." But actually most people don't even think that. Most people just... don't even keep track of how many people die of the flu because they don't care. Why would covid be any different 20 years from now? To be honest most people probably wouldn't even care how many people were dying of covid if the media wasn't shoving the statistic in everyone's face 24/7. Just like most people don't care to know how many people die in the USA per year in general (~3 million) and what the breakdown of those deaths are in terms of causes.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#337

Post by tdfx » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 2:00 AM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #274

ghaff wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of people are not fine with any of those things for an extended period. In fact, in the US, once late spring/summer roll around people are going to be out and about.

Really? That's what people said back when it was proposed that we shut everything down for a few weeks to "flatten the curve". Now look how long we've gone. I'd say Americans have very well tolerated this new way of life and could do so in perpetuity. I wouldn't count the protests and riots last summer since they were politically motivated.

> I'd say Americans have very well tolerated this new way of life and could do so in perpetuity.

Except for the horrific acceleration of radical politics, rioting in the streets (and Capitol), effective abandonment of the education of the children of the bottom 50% percentile earners, rise in suicides and substance abuse, etc. Locked down masses are going to be increasingly difficult to pacify.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#338

Post by addicted » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 2:32 AM UTC

NovaJehovah wrote: post #266

aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

It's generally a political challenge for a free society to get the power and the megaphones back from the people they were given to during a crisis. After an acute terrorism threat ends, it's hard to get power back from the military and the police. In this case, it will be hard to take back power and the narrative from the public health establishment. While they perform a crucial role in our society, they will tend t…

The “public health establishment”.

Is this a joke considering the vast majority of Western countries have basically ignored their “public health establishments” for almost all of the past year? Ironically (or not) the only country that has really followed their “public health establishment” until recently was Sweden. Which isn’t surprising because theirs was the only one not asking the government to make tough choices.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#339

Post by jmckib » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 2:38 AM UTC

esalman wrote: post #252

wcfields wrote: post #179

I may get downvoted for this, but genuinely curious if there's vaccine tourism (not that I'm in a position to get on a jet to get a shot). Eg, if the wait time is long for my group in the US/UK/Wherever, can I book a flight to UAE or Cuba to get a vaccine at the airport?

Yes! I am from the Indian Subcontinent, I know people who went back to the country to get the Oxford vaccine, because the rollout is great and it is "open season" over there already. Converse is also true- rich people who were doubtful about a vaccine manufactured in India booked came to US to get both Moderna and Pfizer shots.

How are folks from India able to get vaccine here? Is there someone selling it to the highest bidder?

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#340

Post by umvi » Tue, Feb 23, 2021, 2:46 AM UTC

dev1n wrote: post #287

standardUser wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small percentages of people suffer complications from many different types of illnesses. At a certain point, human beings simply have to live with a small chance of a bad outcome from ailments that are normally mild.

This isn't some small percentage of people this is 3 - 8% [1] of people hospitalized! Despite not finding data for people not hospitalized many report suffering from and being hospitalized for failures of the pulmonary, endocrine, and digestive system. Sometimes people have strokes from sneezing. See I can make generalizing statements about bullshit too. [1]: https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10…

> This isn't some small percentage of people this is 3 - 8% [1] of people hospitalized

And what percentage of people that get covid are hospitalized? Let's estimate and say 3% of people that get covid end up hospitalized. 3-8% of 3% is, frankly, a small percentage of people.

You can make any percentage seem large and scary with the right framing (https://xkcd.com/1252/)