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Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

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Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#151

Post by wpietri »

nickpp wrote: post #91
jedberg wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US's ban of AZ is most glaring People said the same thing about the US's ban on thalidomide until it turned out they were right. In this case I'm ok with a little conservatism on the part of the FDA. The US is already in 4th place on vaccinations per capita, just barely behind the UK, without either of those policies. Copying from my comment below, a bunch of other examples of times when the FDA was right and E…

It's been over 50 years since the thalidomide tragedy. Do you still let plane crashes of last century direct your choice of transportation?

Plane crashes of the last century deeply inform regulation of planes this century. It's why we have so few plane crashes despite massive increases in passenger-miles flown.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#152

Post by jedberg »

nickpp wrote: post #149
jedberg wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumiracoxib -- Approved in Europe, not the USA. Withdrawn from sales due to side effects. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimelidine -- Same. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolrestat -- Approved in Europe, failed stage 3 clinical in the USA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimonabant -- Approved in Europe, failed in the USA, withdrawn worldwide because the side effects were so bad. Thalidomide…

OK, but if any of those was actually saving lives I'd argue it should've been approved, side effects be damned. Last time I looked, thousands of people were dying every day of Covid. Ignoring those just in case a vaccine is harmful is, IMHO, a bad tradeoff and I don't trust the people making it in my name. I prefer, in life-or-death situations, making my own (informed) decisions.

If the AZ drug were the only COVID vax available, I might agree with you. But there are already two others and a third on a the way, all of which are more effective than the AZ drug. And the USA has already negotiated to get more of the approved ones than the UK is getting on a per capita basis.

Allowing a drug you know doesn't work well is a great way to break the public trust, especially when there are plenty of alternatives.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#153

Post by metalliqaz »

wpietri wrote: post #150
aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

I take it you haven't been following what's going on with "Long Covid". But even among people who aren't hospitalized, there's lasting harm: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91270 I know somebody who's had this. Despite never being hospitalized, after getting sick they had to take a long medical leave from work in hopes of getting their strength back. That's worlds away from "sick for a few days…

I have been "fatigued" for 3+ years due to having children. Life goes on.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#154

Post by rhino369 »

aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

Yes, absolutely that should be the "end" of it. Especially since we are already giving the vaccine to front line works who aren't old or in danger.

Anyone who wants to hole up until they get the vaccine should be able to.

But I'll take the low risk.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#155

Post by alistairSH »

djrogers wrote: post #84
mchusma wrote: post #75

The UKs adoption of First Dose First is amazing and inspiring in a time when governments worldwide seem unable to operate effectively. There are 2 things every country can do to save lives that have effectively zero cost and zero negative externalities: - lifting lingering vaccine bans (the US's ban of AZ is most glaring) - first dose first - the evidence is overwhelming at this point. These two things, which could b…

While those 2 things would help, I haven't seen any projections that could possibly put supply or distribution availability at ~400M doses in the next 5 weeks.

We'd need about 278 million doses (in the US). We're approaching 15% vaccinated, out of a population of 328 million.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#156

Post by nickpp »

wpietri wrote: post #151
nickpp wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been over 50 years since the thalidomide tragedy. Do you still let plane crashes of last century direct your choice of transportation?

Plane crashes of the last century deeply inform regulation of planes this century. It's why we have so few plane crashes despite massive increases in passenger-miles flown.

I strongly doubt the planes of today present the vulnerabilities of last century. Those lessons were leant and applied. Today's airplanes have different issues and policy should better be about the current issues (and crashes) otherwise it would be outdated and obsolete.

But my analogy was about recommending flying or not flying: you should base that recommendation on the safety of today's airplanes, not on the crashes of the past (even if those crashes enabled the current safety level).

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#157

Post by jgalt212 »

garmaine wrote: post #147
maxerickson wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's preferable to have very low infection numbers, to reduce the likelihood of mutations taking hold. Doesn't mean you go on forever waiting for 0 infections, you just wait a bit longer than the minimum number of vaccinations to go back to activities with highest risks of transmission.

With both travel restrictions and lockdown, It takes about 6 weeks to get to (effectively) zero new cases. Not forever.

Yes, but you're still stuck with a population who remains very susceptible to the diseases. Lockdowns, as I'm sure Australia will discover, are not a complete solution to the problem.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#158

Post by ben_ »

metalliqaz wrote: post #153
wpietri wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I take it you haven't been following what's going on with "Long Covid". But even among people who aren't hospitalized, there's lasting harm: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91270 I know somebody who's had this. Despite never being hospitalized, after getting sick they had to take a long medical leave from work in hopes of getting their strength back. That's worlds away from "sick for a few days…

I have been "fatigued" for 3+ years due to having children. Life goes on.

Don't be so crass, people are suffering because of this that didn't chose to

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#159

Post by scrollaway »

garmaine wrote: post #144
aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

> Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? No. This is the "flatten the curve" logic which was a horrible misjudgment. Having the disease in circulation in the community is not only doing tremendous damage to many, many people (even if the hospitals aren't full), but is also allowing the virus to mutate and poten…

> Countries like Australia and New Zealand have shown that if you keep up lockdown measures for just a month or two after the hospitals free up (AND if you institute and keep real travel quarantine restrictions), you can get the virus to effectively ZERO community spread and keep it there.

It's too late for that anywhere that isn't super remote like AU/NZ. Even South Korea and Japan, isolated as they are and with very strict measures, controls on lockdown, and a population that strictly follows them, cannot get / is not getting to zero community spread: It's doing regular, short, strict lockdowns instead.

This is the model that the west should adopt but instead a lot of countries are faffing around. Belgium has been in a five-months-long semi-lockdown that is leaving everyone severely depressed, is hugely damaging to the economy, and has plateau'd the spread to very non-zero numbers so the disease is still very much present. Worst of both worlds.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#160

Post by psnatch »

metalliqaz wrote: post #153
wpietri wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I take it you haven't been following what's going on with "Long Covid". But even among people who aren't hospitalized, there's lasting harm: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91270 I know somebody who's had this. Despite never being hospitalized, after getting sick they had to take a long medical leave from work in hopes of getting their strength back. That's worlds away from "sick for a few days…

I have been "fatigued" for 3+ years due to having children. Life goes on.

Amusing - me too. Obviously you raise the false equivalency, though.
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