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Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

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Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#111

Post by turbonaut »

sgt101 wrote: post #33
ageitgey wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't read too much into that small difference. This study wasn't really designed to show which one works better. The bigger takeaway is that both show significant protection even with just one dose (which presumably rises after the second dose).

Agree. I can't find the right information but I suspect that the headline figures from the different vaccine trials may be generated by somewhat different counting methodologies. I think that some of the trials counted from day 1 of the vaccination, and some of them from day 15 - but I am hoping that someone has the actual information!

The vaccines have also been delivered in slightly different contexts that may relate to risk of hospitalisation.

Pfizer, for example, often administered in hospitals due to the freezer requirement.

You could imagine the risk of hospitalisation of an 80 year old who frequents hospitals and one who doesn’t is different.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#112

Post by djrogers »

ufo wrote: post #38
jjcon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t it almost certainly the case that the ‘unstoppable’ thing it turns in to will basically be more akin to a general cold though? The thing that makes this virus deadly is also the thing we are coding against in the vaccine.

Not necessarily. For example, some of the more recent SARS-CoV-2 variants spread more easily because the virus causes a more severe infection, which is transmissable for a longer period of time. It's also not a guarantee that the virus will evolve into something weaker. There are serious diseases like measles and smallpox that have circulated for thousands of years while remaining as deadly as they ever were. Sometim…

> For example, some of the more recent SARS-CoV-2 variants spread more easily because the virus causes a more severe infection, which is transmissable for a longer period of time.

That's purely speculation at this point, while epidemiology shows us that viruses which are more fatal tend to be less transmissible and vice-versa.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#114

Post by nickpp »

jedberg wrote: post #109
nickpp wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it was right in that case , but blindly letting a single tragedy direct policy without taking into consideration current factors is extremely dangerous. People are dying of COVID right now. If fear of another thalidomide incident delays a saving vaccine we may end up losing more lives than potentially saving.

It's not blindly letting a single tragedy set policy. It's one example of many that the FDA has used to build up trust in their process over the last eight decades. And it's not like the AZ vax is the only option out there. The lives will still be saved with the other vaccines.

I don't know any of the other "many examples", the only one I keep hearing about is the thalidomide incident.

Kind of like when people opposing nuclear power keep bringing up Chernobyl and Fukushima while ignoring their relative tiny victim count compared to the millions of people killed by our fossil energy production.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#115

Post by mcguire »

Exmoor wrote: post #49
stavros wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AZ vaccine is more effective than the BioNTech one? That's extremely interesting.

Edit: I'm an idiot who was trying to do too many things at once and misread. Removing my incorrect commentary on 95% CI numbers. I'll leave the excerpt from the study since that's useful info. >Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the sa…

"85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) ... 94% (95% CI 73 to 99)"

Those aren't overlapping?

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#116

Post by tonyedgecombe »

kop316 wrote: post #11

"By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospitalisation from Covid-19 by up to 85 per cent and 94 per cent, respectively. Among those aged 80 years and over - one of the highest risk groups - vaccination was associated with an 81 per cent reduction in hospitalisation risk in the fourth week, when the results for both vaccines we…

I think the figures from Israel show you are at increased risk of infection for the first week after the vaccine is administered. Presumably because people are already starting to change their behaviour.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#117

Post by taeric »

hinkley wrote: post #93
taeric wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument is, if that were the case, it would be sharper than the natural charts of corona viruses otherwise. To be clear, I first saw this pushed by some epis on Twitter as caution to get to hopeful that we are seeing the vaccines as a resounding success so early in their rollout. It is expected that the vaccines are needed, but the dramatic drop was pushed as likely unrelated. I will try and dig up the tweets. C…

Could it be that there's a strain that results in largely asymptomatic cases and there is not enough data on those people? That could result in a decline now due to competition, or the slope of the line is historically wrong due to invisible statistics. I know there has been some trouble identifying antibodies in people who were exposed months ago. So if you aren't really sick, you only get counted (maybe) if someone…

For myself? I have no idea. I think this would fall under a general data quality concern.

I can say I have not seen this brought up too much on Twitter. With the caveat that I am not following everyone. :)

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#118

Post by vmchale »

aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

> hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures?

From a control theory perspective, it's one of the worst measures because it's delayed. Much more efficient to measure cases - then you don't need restricted social life as long.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#119

Post by DenisM »

drummer wrote: post #104

> Roll-out of the first vaccine dose now needs to be accelerated globally to help overcome this terrible disease. In a publication in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents titled “SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data” (March 19th 2020), the researchers indicate that “there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses”. Fur…

Well, that's a year old now, isn't it?

And the negative impact of the virus consists of both mortality and virality.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#120

Post by [deleted] »

aclimatt wrote: post #108

Since we're on the topic, shouldn't this (hospital admissions) be the almost singular criterion to influence public policy / restrictive measures? The line I've heard repeatedly is we're waiting for "total" herd immunity, as in ensuring almost all of a population is potentially protected from the virus. Frequently quoting fall / end of 2021, potentially into 2022. Shouldn't the only benchmark be those with medium-to-…

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