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Activists who embrace nuclear power

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Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#191
post #175

I read Stewart Brand's 'Whole Earth Discipline' about five years ago, and came away pretty convinced by his pro-nuclear arguments. The price situation has definitely changed dramatically in the last few years, with solar dropping remarkably. So some of it may be worth revisiting. But that said, something else has happened in the last five years that has made me a bit ... cautious about being decisive on nuclear. And…

I suppose you could see it the other way. A nuclear plant in everyone's backyard might be incentive to put competent people in charge?

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#192

Articles like this miss the main point and instead focus on culture war material. There are plenty of sites that would happily accept more nuclear being built, but all other forms of energy have undercut the cost of nuclear. It's no longer cost competitive, and places like China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. The issues aren't safety, waste, a…

> Attaching four hours of storage to a solar generation farm, just enough to get through the duck curve, is now slightly cheaper than coal This completely ignores scenarios of extended cloud cover, cold temperatures and low wind (somewhat like we just saw in Texas) where properly winterized baseline power would be the only way to keep everything up the whole way through. Barring future unknown tech, we will always ne…

If your grid covers a large region and you have sufficient transmission, then somewhere, there is excess electricity from wind/solar that you can bring in.

Remember, we're talking about a world where building renewables to 4x peak demand would be actually economical.

This works on the same principle as an insurance market: it's likely that even at 4x capacity, your local solar farm has a few cloudy days. It's highly unlikely that your entire regional grid generation falls below demand. That probability falls (super?-)exponentially in the size of the region.

Taking a step back: yes, renewable power is intermittent and you need electricity here, now. Either 1) transmit from elsewhere, 2) store locally, or 3) supplement with a stable source (nuclear / thermal). The choice simply comes down to cost (to provide a given level of reliability).

The most efficient solution is likely to do all of the above, taking local conditions into account. Adjusting for local conditions is one thing that a (well-managed) market helps tackle.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prove to me that these pro nuclear activists actually truly care about the land use from solar and wind power.

Why do you think I’m saying it’s an either or? Wind and solar are an important part of the energy mix. But if you truly care about minimizing the impact our energy use has on the world around us, you have to take a mix of all of it. Wind and solar alone will never rid us of fossil fuels on their own. Nuclear has lots of important properties that make it a much better overall true replacement for our fossil fuel depen…

coal plants, even so-called “clean coal” emit more radiation in one year than a nuclear plant does over its entire lifetime

That is incorrect. You may be thinking of this Scientific American article:

"Coal Ash Is More Radioactive Than Nuclear Waste"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...

Which is a garbled retelling of this 1978 report:

"Radiological Impact of Airborne Effluents of Coal and Nuclear Plants"

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/202/4372/1045.abstrac...

The point of the 1978 report was that radioactive elements from coal are more likely to be concentrated in the food supply and retained in the body than radioactive elements released from power reactors. That leads to an effective higher radiation dose to people under their modeling assumptions. But nuclear reactors release more becquerels (or curies, to use the older unit) of radioactive material to the environment.

You can see this difference if you look at the original publication via sci-hub.

https://sci-hub.se/10.1126/science.202.4372.1045

Table 2 shows an estimated airborne release of about 1.2 curies per year of radionuclides from a 1000 MWe coal plant.

Table 3 shows shows an estimated airborne release in excess of 5000 curies per year of radionuclides from a 1000 MWe nuclear reactor.

But since the reactor radionuclides do not biologically concentrate in food or bones, they are dispersed throughout the environment and human exposure is small.

In table 5 you can see that the whole body population dose commitments for the different sources, in man-rem/year, are 18-23 for coal (depending on stack height) and 13 for a nuclear reactor. So coal is worse but far from 50x worse. Looking exclusively at bone exposure, coal can be an order of magnitude worse since radium released from coal behaves chemically like calcium and concentrates in bones.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many eagles are killed by housecats?

Bald eagles, if that's what you mean, are a "least concern" species. That makes sense, because while in my neighborhood we never saw them several decades ago, now I see them multiple times a month. The other day I saw a family of four perched in a dead tree. Somehow they've overcome the dual menace of housecats and wind generation. Now that we've scaled back on DDT, the bald eagle is fine.

Bald eagles and golden eagles are still protected species - unless, of course, you're running a wind farm, in which case you're exempt from these sorts of regulations.[0]

0: https://apnews.com/article/b8dd6050c702467e8be4b1272a3adc87

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#195
post #175

I read Stewart Brand's 'Whole Earth Discipline' about five years ago, and came away pretty convinced by his pro-nuclear arguments. The price situation has definitely changed dramatically in the last few years, with solar dropping remarkably. So some of it may be worth revisiting. But that said, something else has happened in the last five years that has made me a bit ... cautious about being decisive on nuclear. And…

I suppose you could see it the other way. A nuclear plant in everyone's backyard might be incentive to put competent people in charge?

Respectfully, i think this is a naïve position, given the Zeitgeist of the last few years

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've done a fair amount of research into molten salt reactors, and if we can solve the containment issue they should be very cost effective. The molten salts are extremely corrosive, which cuts their lifespan down to ~5 years. Newer designs should reach 10 years and there is extensive research into designing systems that will last 20+ years. They should be much cheaper to build and operate because they have several i…

This is solving the wrong problem, and therefore will not advance nuclear. Cost is the impediment to nuclear, not any sort of safety concerns. That molten salt reactor will need to have a negative cost in order to compete with the cost of stored renewable energy. The future of nuclear energy must either abandon the thermal steam cycle for electricity generation, or generate massive value from the nuclear reaction par…

> Cost is the impediment to nuclear, not any sort of safety concerns

That's not entirely true, and safety features and regulations are a major part of nuclear's cost.

> That molten salt reactor will need to have a negative cost in order to compete with the cost of stored renewable energy

Does stored renewable energy come for free? From what i recall, there's still no actual solution to that problem on a big scale.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#197

Articles like this miss the main point and instead focus on culture war material. There are plenty of sites that would happily accept more nuclear being built, but all other forms of energy have undercut the cost of nuclear. It's no longer cost competitive, and places like China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. The issues aren't safety, waste, a…

> China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. They have brought 15 GW online the last 5 years, and they have another 15 GW under construction. How is that pulling back? https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pr...

linear vs exponential when compared to other sources.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#198

Articles like this miss the main point and instead focus on culture war material. There are plenty of sites that would happily accept more nuclear being built, but all other forms of energy have undercut the cost of nuclear. It's no longer cost competitive, and places like China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. The issues aren't safety, waste, a…

> Attaching four hours of storage to a solar generation farm, just enough to get through the duck curve, is now slightly cheaper than coal This completely ignores scenarios of extended cloud cover, cold temperatures and low wind (somewhat like we just saw in Texas) where properly winterized baseline power would be the only way to keep everything up the whole way through. Barring future unknown tech, we will always ne…

How about not having five nines, and just finding a way to live within that envelope?

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#199
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think I’m saying it’s an either or? Wind and solar are an important part of the energy mix. But if you truly care about minimizing the impact our energy use has on the world around us, you have to take a mix of all of it. Wind and solar alone will never rid us of fossil fuels on their own. Nuclear has lots of important properties that make it a much better overall true replacement for our fossil fuel depen…

We still have no data that indicates wind and/or solar can displace coal/gas as energy sources. Germany, 2010: Coal+Oil+Gas 55% Nuclear 25% Wind+Solar+Hydro 13% Germany, 2020: Coal+Oil+Gas 36% Nuclear 12% Wind+Solar+Hydro 41% Source: https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE...

These numbers can be looked at two ways. Germany actually failed in its efforts to get off the coal so far, I think. Just from these numbers you could as easily be making his point as yours.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Attaching four hours of storage to a solar generation farm, just enough to get through the duck curve, is now slightly cheaper than coal This completely ignores scenarios of extended cloud cover, cold temperatures and low wind (somewhat like we just saw in Texas) where properly winterized baseline power would be the only way to keep everything up the whole way through. Barring future unknown tech, we will always ne…

How about not having five nines, and just finding a way to live within that envelope?

Yep. Cheaper than all of this is having a few blankets, a camp stove, and a week's worth of rice and beans on hand.
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