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Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

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Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#291

Post by hiq »

lottin wrote: post #218
_rohan wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is overvalued when the price-to-earnings ratio is too high (ie, valuations outweigh the actual money that a company makes). When it gets really high, investors can panic, and sell stocks, driving prices down and hence reducing the PE ratio. The alternative I’m describing is one where panic selling doesn’t occur. Earnings can continue to rise (because earnings reflect consumer spending and other similar tre…

Bitcoin has no earnings so I don't know how that could possibly work in the case of the bitcoin bubble.

I think OP was talking about a possible market bubble, not Bitcoin.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#292

Post by shrimpx »

graeme wrote: post #148
martinko wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got it right. That being said, I dont think anyone realistically expects 1m / btc this decade.

Right just thinking through the claims of the boosters to their logical end. If it did happen in nine years the next halving is 2028 so the cost would be ~$85 billion per year. And that would be less than it is now due to inflation. Ok that’s actually not as bad as I thought, though still pretty expensive. You need $85 billion from new entrants in burnt capital just to maintain the value of existing bitcoins at that…

Presumably the 85B would have to be paid in network fees assuming price doesn’t move?

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#293

Post by shrimpx »

_rohan wrote: post #179
hiq wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> instead of prices coming crashing down, prices stay stagnant or grow slowly, while earnings grow quickly Do you have a link where I could read more about this? As a layman I fail to understand how this would work, and I couldn't find a page explaining it. My naive understanding is that a bubble pops when investors lose confidence in the market, and instead of anticipating growth, anticipates a correction and create…

The market is overvalued when the price-to-earnings ratio is too high (ie, valuations outweigh the actual money that a company makes). When it gets really high, investors can panic, and sell stocks, driving prices down and hence reducing the PE ratio. The alternative I’m describing is one where panic selling doesn’t occur. Earnings can continue to rise (because earnings reflect consumer spending and other similar tre…

It seems like the unlikely alternative. What would motivate everyone to keep money in assets that aren’t moving, or barely moving? Perhaps if there are zero alternatives — nothing is growing faster — then yeah... That’s hard to imagine.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#294

Post by airhead969 »

DennisP wrote: post #231
airhead969 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What underlying value does btc buy or hold? It's rarely accepted anywhere. How can it be made stable? It's risky to invest large sums in if it can just collapse at any time. Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money? If there are original owners/operators, where's the governance, paper trail, and audit of them? What if there are s…

> Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money? Are you talking about Bitcoin itself here? There are no operators holding your money. It's secured by standard cryptography implemented in open source code, and the entire ledger is public. There are developers who fix bugs that come up, and make minor improvements to the protocol occas…

The ledger can be public and people can choose what code to run, but someone started it. Do does anyone know how distributed (as a running system, not as a protocol) BTC actually began vs. is? And someone early likely has a giant pool of BTC. Does anyone suspect BTC is a long con?

I'm not talking about who is holding money at present time, but running away with the value from piles of BTCs (either historic wallets, customer wallets, or modern investment), cashing-out, and dumping BTC's value.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#295

Post by DennisP »

airhead969 wrote: post #294
DennisP wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money? Are you talking about Bitcoin itself here? There are no operators holding your money. It's secured by standard cryptography implemented in open source code, and the entire ledger is public. There are developers who fix bugs that come up, and make minor improvements to the protocol occas…

The ledger can be public and people can choose what code to run, but someone started it. Do does anyone know how distributed (as a running system, not as a protocol) BTC actually began vs. is? And someone early likely has a giant pool of BTC. Does anyone suspect BTC is a long con? I'm not talking about who is holding money at present time, but running away with the value from piles of BTCs (either historic wallets, c…

How would that be more of a con, than a company founder who holds a large amount of stock?

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#296

Post by airhead969 »

DennisP wrote: post #295
airhead969 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ledger can be public and people can choose what code to run, but someone started it. Do does anyone know how distributed (as a running system, not as a protocol) BTC actually began vs. is? And someone early likely has a giant pool of BTC. Does anyone suspect BTC is a long con? I'm not talking about who is holding money at present time, but running away with the value from piles of BTCs (either historic wallets, c…

How would that be more of a con, than a company founder who holds a large amount of stock?

It's entirely different if a "founder" can walk away with their now insanely valuable "stock" or someone else's "stock," effectively a partial pyramid scheme.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#297

Post by DennisP »

airhead969 wrote: post #296
DennisP wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that be more of a con, than a company founder who holds a large amount of stock?

It's entirely different if a "founder" can walk away with their now insanely valuable "stock" or someone else's "stock," effectively a partial pyramid scheme.

I mean, Elon Musk could sell a large amount of TSLA if he wanted, just like Satoshi could theoretically sell lots of BTC. Neither can sell someone else's holdings.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#298

Post by deanmoriarty »

hfsp wrote: post #273
dragonwriter wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're just at a point in the economy where it doesn't make sense to hold on to cash. One of the whole purposes of conversion to pure fiat is to eliminate any reason to hold cash other than short-term liquidity in order to encourage investment in productive assets, driving production. > It's just completely losing its value thanks to a long sustained QE. Except...it's not, the quantity of direct, utility-producing g…

Zero/negative interest rates drive capital misallocation. You are spewing MMT dogma. This is why we have zombie companies like IBM chortling around. There is asset price inflation for the things we want to buy. Stonks. Real estate in desirable places. If you examine the 500 most commonly bought household goods, inflation is tracking ~10%+ in major metro areas in the US. This is before covid.

Do you have a reference for that 10% on the top 500 items?

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#299

Post by hfsp »

deanmoriarty wrote: post #298
hfsp wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero/negative interest rates drive capital misallocation. You are spewing MMT dogma. This is why we have zombie companies like IBM chortling around. There is asset price inflation for the things we want to buy. Stonks. Real estate in desirable places. If you examine the 500 most commonly bought household goods, inflation is tracking ~10%+ in major metro areas in the US. This is before covid.

Do you have a reference for that 10% on the top 500 items?

www.chapwoodindex.org

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#300

Post by beaned »

graeme wrote: post #262
beaner wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you need that much capital flowing in to maintain the market price There's something off about the argument that you're making and I think it's that you have cause and effect backwards. You keep phrasing this as if mining moves first before price, and investments in hardware are necessary to sustain high prices. But the reality is that high prices come first and incentivize investment. That investment is not requir…

Hmm. I’m not 100% sure I follow so I’ll restate and see if we can go from there. I’m saying: 1. The market price is set by people deciding to buy bitcoin, and 2. Bitcoin miners will invest in equipment and energy up to whatever the market price is 3. Thus, at a market price of X, at current mining rates, the miners will have costs roughly equal to 6.5 * 6 * 24 * X per day, or C 4. So to maintain a given market price,…

#4 and 5 are false
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