Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
141–150 of 305 posts
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> All bubbles pop eventually. I think there's little doubt crypto is a bubble right now. Same thing was said in 2013 and 2017..
I don't think it was wrong then either. I think this is a greater fool style of bubble like the famous tulip bubble, eventually we'll run out of fools. That's my opinion, but we'll see.
The other possibility is that it will be widely used in the future as a store of value or for some other purposes. Might be rational to put at least some percentage of your net worth into it. People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#143One important thing to note is that these are secondary transactions and not where the stock may potentially trade. Secondly, Coinbase doesn’t allow any secondary transactions, this was a company sponsored (approved) secondary. As a result this created immense scarcity so you can see how much the price changes just in these limited sales. Third, as we saw with the last bull run of Bitcoin everything with blockchain i…
> Fourth, there is no Bitcoin tracking security on public markets Because of their big purchases Microstrategy stock (MSTR) tracks Bitcoin pretty well.
If you buy microstrategy because you want to be exposed to bitcoin then you will be overpaying by a lot.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is this like the dot com bubble? My understanding is that the mindset of the time was a true mania - people were convinced it was the new normal and that businesses got insane valuations preproduct even. It seems like with a lot of these bubbles everyone is like “get in this stupidly inflated asset with money you can lose to try and make a quick buck” with retail investing at all time highs rather than some dramatic…
> people were convinced it was the new normal and that businesses got insane valuations preproduct even How is that any different from today?
Everyone is constantly saying it is a bubble and will pop soon. So sentiment is exactly the opposite.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#145Only tangentially related: How do bitcoin network costs scale with market price?
We can expect the marginal cost to mine a coin to scale with price. So if btc worth $52,000 then people will invest on average $52,000 in equipment and electricity.
There are 6.5 coins mined every 10 min. So daily network cost approximates to 6.5 * 6 * 24 * $52,000 = $48,000,000
This is not strictly accurate as past equipment costs less and people may over invest expecting appreciation. But it should be close enough.
So to run the network at a price of $52,000 you need $17.76 billion dollars to enter as fresh capital to be burned as electricity and equipment, correct?
And if the price hit $1,000,000 as boosters claim, mining difficulty would rise to adjust and the new annual maintenance cost would be: 6.5 * 6 * 24 * * 365 * $1,000,000 = $341,640,000,000
And then this would decrease as halving happened. In May 2020 and then 2024. So the annual cost to run a $1,000,000 btc network post the may 2020 halving would be about $170 billion per year. That much new capital needs to enter the market and be burned up simply to maintain the price at $1,000,000. And to be useful to the world a $1,000,000 bitcoin would need to generate $170,000,000,000 in value annually.
Have I got this right or did I make a grievous error somewhere?
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#146We're just at a point in the economy where it doesn't make sense to hold on to cash. It's just completely losing its value thanks to a long sustained QE. People are just putting their money into anything as a hedge - real estate, stocks, crypto, gold. Until the value of the at can be sustained and inflation comes back, it's unlikely much else will change.
Isn’t cash losing value the definition of inflation?
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#147Only tangentially related: How do bitcoin network costs scale with market price? We can expect the marginal cost to mine a coin to scale with price. So if btc worth $52,000 then people will invest on average $52,000 in equipment and electricity. There are 6.5 coins mined every 10 min. So daily network cost approximates to 6.5 * 6 * 24 * $52,000 = $48,000,000 This is not strictly accurate as past equipment costs less…
You've got it right. That being said, I dont think anyone realistically expects 1m / btc this decade.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#148Only tangentially related: How do bitcoin network costs scale with market price? We can expect the marginal cost to mine a coin to scale with price. So if btc worth $52,000 then people will invest on average $52,000 in equipment and electricity. There are 6.5 coins mined every 10 min. So daily network cost approximates to 6.5 * 6 * 24 * $52,000 = $48,000,000 This is not strictly accurate as past equipment costs less…
You've got it right. That being said, I dont think anyone realistically expects 1m / btc this decade.
Right just thinking through the claims of the boosters to their logical end.
If it did happen in nine years the next halving is 2028 so the cost would be ~$85 billion per year. And that would be less than it is now due to inflation.
Ok that’s actually not as bad as I thought, though still pretty expensive. You need $85 billion from new entrants in burnt capital just to maintain the value of existing bitcoins at that price, and people need some reason for putting in capital other than price appreciation assuming appreciation stops.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#149I have a large selection of common tulip bulbs. They're only $800 USD each. Get them while they're still a bargain.
Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
#150It doesn't much matter to me if its crypto currency or real goods, when markets, stock exchanges float, I think we're insane. The marketplace should not of itself be valuable. If it is, its extraction of value for the goods/utility being traded. Its rent seeking. The only possible value derives from what is a tax on trades by volume and value, to NOT fund the engine which runs the trades. Sure Lloyd's of London is pr…
What underlying value does btc buy or hold? It's rarely accepted anywhere.
How can it be made stable? It's risky to invest large sums in if it can just collapse at any time.
Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money? If there are original owners/operators, where's the governance, paper trail, and audit of them?
What if there are security or structural flaws? Who's going to fix them? Who decides what fixes to implement? Who reviews the fixes?
How can it can be converted to money if countries make exchanges illegal or tax it into oblivion?