31–40 of 305 posts
No matter if you think we're in a bubble or if this valuation supports your view that we are in a bubble, at the end of the day we are all losers who have decided to spend our precious time on a Friday night glued to HN.
I don't get how everybody is just making a killing right now. What goes up must come down? Are people going to get uber burned? Like somebody who put in 50% of their net worth today, and maybe it drops?
Historically there were some exchanges that have been hacked. This caused not only the company to go bankrupt but people losing a lot of money. How does coinbase prevent this from happening? This is very much one of the reasons I will never hold crypto (FYI: I've wrote my own Golang flavour of ethereum blockchain and solidity when it first came out, since im gonna get bashed for this post. I also regret not putting 1k during ethereums ICO when that was the only money I had in my bank account. This is not an investment advice). If my etrade or bank account got hacked, I can still get my money back through FDIC and SIPC. If a non-tech personstarted hyping a cryptocurrency and placed 100k in it, and they get hacked, essentially their 100k evaporates right? I guess there are worse ways to gamble your money
What I like about crypto though is the 24/7 market. I wish there was something like this in the stock market.
No matter if you think we're in a bubble or if this valuation supports your view that we are in a bubble, at the end of the day we are all losers who have decided to spend our precious time on a Friday night glued to HN.
Low interest rates and secular trends justify this I guess?
Low interest rates don't effect whether a stock goes up or down. That is determined by earnings growth. Edit: Peter Lynch agrees with me. Instead of being a passive aggressive downvoting asshole leave a comment. https://youtu.be/UNrMnFM3VvE Edit: Lol, I can't respond to your comments because everyone downvoted my comment and HN rate-limited me. Later.
This pushes up the price of equities and decreases their return too.
Also Peter Lynch is no fool, so I'd like a source for you saying he thinks there is no connection before I believe he said that.
ICE who owns the NYSE had a net income of $3Bn last year and is worth $68Bn - for context.
They get roughly $200 per bitcoin trade. That's on both sides, so $400 per bitcoin transaction. Today was a slightly higher volume day but they did $1.6B in BTC-USD, so around ~30k bitcoin changed hands.
30k * 400 = $12Million
Bitcoin is 1/3 of their volume (they have a lot of other crypto currency pairs), so let's take 3x of that = $36 Million in trading fees today.
Bitcoin is a 24/7 market, so 365 days = $13.14 Billion per year.
This does not even count what used to be (still is?) their main business of just buying and holding bitcoin for people through DCA buys or on their app. They also are starting to have a bunch of other revenue streams through loans, debit cards, etc and invest in a number of early crypto projects.
I'm not sure what the multiple is going to be like since I don't know their expenses, but since most tech companies are valued from revenue and future growth expectations anyway, who knows.
So what happens to global valuations once the world population starts shrinking? I also wonder what would happen if there was another significant war - surely peace cannot continue forever.
What's your reason for such a firm belief that this is absolutely going to happen in any timeframe that matters to this valuation?
I don't get how everybody is just making a killing right now. What goes up must come down? Are people going to get uber burned? Like somebody who put in 50% of their net worth today, and maybe it drops?
No matter if you think we're in a bubble or if this valuation supports your view that we are in a bubble, at the end of the day we are all losers who have decided to spend our precious time on a Friday night glued to HN.