71–80 of 191 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.
Isn't that just life insurance?
The problem with making this bet is that the value of the underlying crypto can move by far more than the possible 15% return while the result is pending. 2 months is more than enough for the price to double or halve and people want to be able to exit to fiat at a moment's notice when they think things are heading south.
The problem with making this bet is that the value of the underlying crypto can move by far more than the possible 15% return while the result is pending. 2 months is more than enough for the price to double or halve and people want to be able to exit to fiat at a moment's notice when they think things are heading south.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, and as mentioned in the article: The markets were guessing Trump would win after he had already lost. If that's not evidence of a political bias to you I'm not sure why.
When hurricane forecasters predict that a hurricane will strike a city, would that be evidence of their pro-hurricane bias? If they were consistently overeager to predict hurricane strikes, would that be evidence that they supported hurricanes, or merely were overcalibrated to predicting them?
The problem with making this bet is that the value of the underlying crypto can move by far more than the possible 15% return while the result is pending. 2 months is more than enough for the price to double or halve and people want to be able to exit to fiat at a moment's notice when they think things are heading south.
There are cash-based markets like Predictit where you could've made a similar bet. Predictit charges 5% withdrawal fees + 10% of profits, but if you expect a 15% ROI, it's still profitable.
A lot of people recognized this for what it was, but chose not to play because of how finicky PredictIt and other prediction markets were around the rules of the game. In most previous elections they would have already closed the markets.
Personally, I made off with a nice chunk of change buying No-Trump on WI, MI, GA, and AZ after the election, but I only played with what I could afford to lose.
We're currently under occupation by a geriatric pedo that is completely mentally shot and controlled by Xi Jinping.
"The best way to predict the future is to create it." I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that's what all this is at the end of the day.