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Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

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Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear plants are the worst possible way to reduce energy costs. They are also incredibly massive single points of failure, so they tend to reduce reliability compared to more distributed smaller generation units. Germany, for example, has seen reliability increase massively as they shift towards more distributed renewables, even though it's not a super high penetration level. As we shift to more renewables and star…

That's really not justifiable unless you assume nuclear construction costs in the out-of-practice west apply everywhere, always and forever. To think this is to completely disregard the amazing nuclear builds in China (see Hualong One), the UAE (3 APR-1400s build by the Koreans), Russia (lots of VVERs), etc. At the costs they're delivering, current low-carbon 24/7 nuclear is a rock-solid choice. Solar photovoltaic an…

> Solar photovoltaic and wind are much older technologies than nuclear, to be fair on the "modern" quip.

To be completely fair, the development of nuclear power took governments and would have been impossible otherwise. Solar and wind, not so much. The problem with nuclear is only cost, not NIMBY and before it is said so, it certainly is not the regulations jacking the cost of nuclear so high. If nuclear power was economically viable, you could not beat off the investors. The trouble is, the investors don't want to pay the $15B or so it costs to build a single plant, nor the cost of decommissioning, nor for the cost of storing the waste effectively forever, plus the cost of securing that, and certainly not for any accidents, as improbable as they may be. They just want to sell electricity and profit, and leave the government with the responsibility of paying for all the things.

And really to be fair, the cost of R&D for nuclear power has never been paid back. Pay the US and UK taxpayers back for the R&D and you can have all the nuclear power plants you want.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#253
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas-based electrical generation is what are failing right now! They are failing left and right! If 100% was gas there would be more problems, not less. Wind and Solar is pulling above planned generation right now. If you believe your logic, time to go all-in on wind + solar.

Wind and solar heavily depend on the weather. They cannot therefore produce any sufficient amounts of electricity during a blizzard. And the blame doesn’t lie on natural gas but on the idea of shutting down baseload-capable sources like nuclear in favor of renewables.

Except it was natural gas generators that caused the system to fail:

As Princeton engineering professor Jesse Jenkins points out, the real primary culprit was the mass failure of nuclear, coal, and natural gas (or "thermal") power plants. At the peak of the blackout something like 27,000 megawatts of thermal capacity were offline — or nearly 40 percent of Texas's entire thermal capacity.

https://theweek.com/articles/967062/what-texas-blackout-reve...

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#254

There’s an elegant solution to all this: better energy efficiency for buildings. It’s funny seeing people in this thread jumping right past the root cause and suggesting elaborate solutions like nuclear power. And before you say it’s not feasible to upgrade hundreds of millions of buildings in the USA, you should be aware that upgrading homes to be more energy efficient actually pays for itself (albeit in the long ru…

Great! Now go tear down the entire housing stock so we can rebuild it better. Unfortunately, as a society we're already under-building, so we can't really afford to tear down what we've already got.

In some places (like here in the Bay Area) it's ridiculously difficult and expensive to build anything, so much of the building stock is untouched since the 1950s and simply rots in place.

We'd do well to be as good at home construction as Japan.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Quebec is 99% renewable[0] (95% hydro, 4% wind) and runs through the coldest of winter just fine! Hydro has huge impacts on the environment and can only be built if you have mountains and large amounts of water. Oh, and it’s one of the dealiest sources of energy. The Banqiao dam disaster in 1975 killed as much as 250.000 people while there are less than 50 deaths attributed to Chernobyl according to UNSCEAR/WHO.

Chernobyl may have less deaths, but it affected the health of hundreds of thousands. If you think about the danger of renewable sources of energy, know that there is not alternative because we have no alternative planet. Betwwwn 250,000 accidental deaths and billions of suffering people, I choose the former.

But where are the billions suffering from nuclear power? As you point out, even with a generous accounting, Chernobyl was orders of magnitude less than that.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#256

Note there are three tabs in this graphic: Day-ahead, 15 minute, and real-time. Day-ahead contracts are high because uncertainty is also high. 15 minute and real-time prices are an order of magnitude lower, despite the sun being down and electric heaters presumably consuming a lot of electricity. Energy companies need to decide how much of their capacity they want to lock in at the high $900 rate for tomorrow, and ho…

Yes, daily averages vary wildly in industrialised countries with real time electricity pricing.

In much of Europe, residential, and office will pay $0.3-0.5 during normal use in winter, but dramatically less in off-peak hour in countries with "smart meters."

This way you get seemingly sensible $0.1-$0.2 per kWh averages, but drop your jaw when you see your electricity bill.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#257
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but it's not that simple, as you can see clearly right now. Between Feb 9 and Feb 17th wind and solar energy delivery has been a very small fraction of capacity, less than 10%. To do baseload over a period of 8 days with that kind of resource would require roughly a 20x capacity overbuild and some kind of ridiculous battery. It's just not practical. Most realistic scenarios these days have lots of wind and…

I think you're overcomplicating the situation. A mix of renewable sources is quite stable, and there are more ways to store energy than just batteries. Here's a paper debunking the baseload myth. http://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/publ... A 10GW solar farm is already in the pipeline for northern Australia: https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12785256

The paper suggests solar thermal and wind plus gas peakers. So the overbuilt point from the parent stands.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#258

There’s an elegant solution to all this: better energy efficiency for buildings. It’s funny seeing people in this thread jumping right past the root cause and suggesting elaborate solutions like nuclear power. And before you say it’s not feasible to upgrade hundreds of millions of buildings in the USA, you should be aware that upgrading homes to be more energy efficient actually pays for itself (albeit in the long ru…

Great! Now go tear down the entire housing stock so we can rebuild it better. Unfortunately, as a society we're already under-building, so we can't really afford to tear down what we've already got. In some places (like here in the Bay Area) it's ridiculously difficult and expensive to build anything, so much of the building stock is untouched since the 1950s and simply rots in place. We'd do well to be as good at ho…

> Great! Now go tear down the entire housing stock so we can rebuild it better. Unfortunately, as a society we're already under-building, so we can't really afford to tear down what we've already got.

Well, why not?

Japan effectively rebuilt its entire housing stock few times over since WW2, and so did Britain, Germany, and ex-Union countries.

I believe USA has more money than the broke USSR did

20 year timelines is easily achievable for USA as a wealthy, and still relatively industrialised country.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least gas is pretty cheap. I hope your fish make it. And now you know the value of camping gear :)

My expensive 12v camping fridge and lithium battery just saved the contents of my fridge so there's that at least.

Put the food outside?
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