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Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

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Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#71

Post by lsllc »

I'm a big fan of renewables, solar/wind/hydro. But we still need that baseline generating capacity for these dark icy winter days. It's clear now that coal/oil isn't it (pollution) and we should reserve natural gas supply for home heating (because it's efficient and "relatively" clean) and spot-demand generators.

So that leaves Nuclear. But we just need to get it right this time -- i.e. don't build them near earthquake/tsunami zones, don't play games with the control rods and these days we've gotten pretty good at control systems. I think it's about time to look at it again.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#72

Post by vmh1928 »

vmh1928 wrote: post #26

it's bitcoin miners turning on server farms.

If I understand this correctly, this is a picture of the western power market showing "next day" purchases as well as "real-time spot prices" (and one other category - something about 15 minutes.) Anyway, if a utility has generating capacity then the cost their electricity is what it's always been subject to natural gas prices or other "cost of manufacturing" costs. If a utility has to purchase extra power then they turn to this market and purchase only what they need at these prices. So what's causing the run-up of market electricity in the western US? Possibly demand from the colder parts of the country assuming there are transmission lines over which the electricity can flow. My recollection is that most of the lines run north-south rather than east-west.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#73

Post by zdragnar »

srswtf123 wrote: post #52
toomuchtodo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Substantial amounts of solar coming online in Hawaii, causing the utility to carefully manage additional distributed solar installs [1]. Still expensive because there is much diesel and coal generation (~2GW) left to displace. [1] https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/clean-energy-hawaii/integra... (red = saturated local electrical infra)

Are there any realistic power generation options from tidal/ocean power? Seems like that might be great for Hawaii — if it isn’t still the realm of science fiction?

Most tidal I am familiar with capable of generating anything approaching reasonable amounts causes significant ecosystem impacts- you basically replace entire shorelines with concrete bunkers that act as a crappy gravity battery (you can get significant mass from the water, but not much lift from the tide).

I think most research is focused on utilizing less unique space- rooftops, open plains, open ocean. Shorelines are tiny spaces for how ecologically unique they are, plus they tend to be highly desirable for other human uses as well.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#74

Post by toomuchtodo »

stefan_ wrote: post #62
toomuchtodo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Substantial amounts of solar coming online in Hawaii, causing the utility to carefully manage additional distributed solar installs [1]. Still expensive because there is much diesel and coal generation (~2GW) left to displace. [1] https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/clean-energy-hawaii/integra... (red = saturated local electrical infra)

"carefully manage" aka try to retain the fossil fuel dependence at all costs. Hawaii is a microcosm of egregious mismanagement despite ideal circumstances.

I was under a similar impression, but an independent audit found that while unnecessary staffing (and associated costs) was occurring, it didn't appear that the utility was attempting to sandbag the grid transformation. There's bloat, but also legitimate progress.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/audit-of-hawaiian-electric-...

> Contrary to stakeholder criticism, Hawaiian Electric's support of Hawaii's groundbreaking 100% by 2045 renewable portfolio standard (RPS) has been strong, the audit found. "It has exceeded its mandated obligations" and criticisms "appear to be largely unfounded."

> The problem is cost, it said. Meeting the RPS and the challenge of integrating rooftop solar have led to increased workload and costs, the audit recognized. But Hawaiian Electric increased staffing "with little evidence of any business cases supporting these additions."

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#75

Post by maxerickson »

maxerickson wrote: post #29
bmurray7jhu wrote: post #15

Likely corresponds to the nationwide spike in natural gas prices. Even in California, natural gas prices are an order of magnitude higher than usual. Prices appear to have hit ~$90 per quadrillion BTU, versus a typical price of ~$2 per 10^15 BTU https://www.naturalgasintel.com/data-snapshot/daily-gpi/CALR...

Michigan is about 3x for natural gas. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/data-snapshot/daily-gpi/MCWM... (I was curious and it provides a Midwest data point)

Here's the Midwest electric grid:

https://www.misoenergy.org/markets-and-operations/real-time-...

Roughly $100.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#77

Post by tt433 »

sremani wrote: post #20
bob1029 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is 90c/KWh. Arguably very expensive rate for electricity. Not sure if related to the Texas/ERCOT grid situation, as the DC tie-ins are not that substantial.

Texas banned out of state sale of NG, that will have consequence but not sure that is the reason.

How is it legal for them to regulate interstate commerce?

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#78

Post by dathinab »

jedberg wrote: post #2

I need more context. Is that a lot? Is that low? Is it a big change from before? In what direction?

I wasn't able to find the right data to compare it to but it seems to be roughly over 5 time the price compared to Germany and Germany has some of the highest electricity prices in Europe. I.e. compared to some of the Countries with the cheapest electricity in the EU it's something like 15 times the price.

In 2020 the highest wholesale electricity price spike in the US seem to have been $127/MWh with an average of $38/MWh.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#79

Post by cmdli »

twunde wrote: post #54
lainga wrote: post #9

Do wholesale prices directly translate to consumer prices?

Not directly. In Texas and other deregulated markets, you can be on either a fixed rate for n months or on a variable rate. If you're on a variable rate, the rate will be much higher than normal for the next few months. If you're on a fixed rate you're fine for now, but keep an eye on when your fixed rate expires. This assumes that your supplier is still in business after the next few months (many suppliers will go b…

> If you are in a regulated market or are using the regulated utilities like ConEd in NYC, you'll see limited rate increases to deal with the increased cost to supply. These rate increases need to be approved by the state's Public Utility Commission.

If deregulated suppliers are having to raise prices to cover costs, wouldn't that apply to regulated suppliers as well? Unless they have enough cash on hand to ride it out, then they will have to raise prices or go bankrupt. I would feel like the risk of bankruptcy would be higher if they have limited ability to raise prices.

I'm assuming regulated and deregulated suppliers operate similarly. I don't know if regulated suppliers are required to have some sort of backup for this situation.

Re: Electricity over $900/MWh in most of Western US now

#80

Post by rtpg »

lsllc wrote: post #71

I'm a big fan of renewables, solar/wind/hydro. But we still need that baseline generating capacity for these dark icy winter days. It's clear now that coal/oil isn't it (pollution) and we should reserve natural gas supply for home heating (because it's efficient and "relatively" clean) and spot-demand generators. So that leaves Nuclear. But we just need to get it right this time -- i.e. don't build them near earthqua…

Gas-based electrical generation is what are failing right now! They are failing left and right! If 100% was gas there would be more problems, not less.

Wind and Solar is pulling above planned generation right now.

If you believe your logic, time to go all-in on wind + solar.

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