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Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

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Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, a wire transfer at a major bank like Wells Fargo is $34.

This is stunning to me. Wire transfers are free and fast in my country. I mean maybe some banks charge some people like 10c per transfer but they are mostly free. They are also very common way to transfer money to friends, paying someone, moving money around accounts etc.

A wire transfer is not the same as an ACH transfer. I can send you money for free via ACH, but it takes a few days to clear.

A wire transfer is a realtime transfer between banks. The only time I've used it was while buying a house. I've never done a wire transfer under $20k.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The forefront of the Bitcoin frenzy isn't even on the blockchain, it's at the exchanges. Hardcore tech people and those who don't (or can't) trust institutions with their Bitcoin will pay the transaction fees to get their money out of exchanges and into their own wallet. The average retail investor, however, doesn't want to be their own bank. They just want in on the price action, while letting the exchange manage th…

“I'm aware of the 21 million maximum BTC cap” Better thought of as a configuration value set by people with most of the mining power, which last time I checked was PRC

no, the miners are simply said just timestamping machines (once they got lucky to find a fitting nonce).

If they don't follow the rules as set by the users of the system, their blocks will be automatically ignored by the users software [1] (while users receive blocks from miners following their rules).

[1]: there is one CONDITION to that, and that is that an economic majority of users either do run real bitcoin nodes (can also be light clients on smartphones that connect to own node at home or to external servers that do not belong to miners) or that the services they use do run real bitcoin nodes (and do not collude with miners).

It is about an economic majority of users, and not about a simple majority. There are higher chances that users with more value invested, will run their own nodes, and therefore will not be tricked by malicious miners, and therefore increase the value of the blockchain where the rules are followed (if the forked blockchain with infinite or increase supply were to have some traction by an economic minority, the economic majority could run a second node with these changed rules and sell their coins on that chain, that would make the chain the loosing chain, like what happened with "Bitcoin-cash").

Obviously everyone running their own node would be best, so that those nodes are not run by a small amount of entities who could decide to run software/nodes that do follow their own rules. That is *WHY* bitcoiners are sooo much against raising the blocksize limit, so that running a node is not too resource intensive, so that the number of people running their own nodes (knowingly or even better unknowingly) is as big as possible. Many do think that bitcoin is slow for technical reasons. That is not the case (and lightning could increase the throughput a lot if it achieves it's goal one day). Bitcoin wants to be "slow" to make it easy for as much users as possible to run a node (read: having a maximum amount of users (knowingly and unknowingly) run real nodes, instead of SPV-wallets that do NOT validates the rules and therefore can be tricked by miners!)

By running your own node, you mainly protect yourself, but a tiny bit also the rest of the users (long term aligned incentives, once running a node is computational irrelevant, or one node per family runing on the home router or similar).

That being said, miners, developers, exchanges, ... all can influence what happens, but the biggest power lies in users hands... if the economical majority run (archival or pruned) fully validating nodes.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even countries that do have hyperinflation experience it at a somewhat predictable pace. With Bitcoin, you don't know if it's down 80% tomorrow, then up 200% the next day, then down 50% the day after. It's a huge tail risk.

In the Weimar republic eggs went from $0.5 to $500 pretty quickly and by 8 months eggs were $1,500,000. Happens quicker than you think and that's a hell of a tail risk. Bitcoin has been pretty consistently up on any timeline over the last decade. I've been present every crash and my tolerance for keeping a small percentage of net worth in it increases each time. You don't have to keep 100% of your cash in bitcoin. Wi…

This happened because there wasn't enough eggs or food in general. If there is food shortage in the future people will pay all the bitcoins they have to get a loaf of bread or a few eggs.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#634
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the hyperbitcoinization scenario. If this holds you'll be an early adopter.

That scenario makes no sense in the real world because the US government would just regulate/ban it before it got to that point. Once BTC even starts to threaten the sovereignty and power of the USD, it's game over for Bitcoin and the laissez-faire environment that helped it grow.

No, they'd have to accept that world is different now, and start amassing bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin consumes more electricity than entire countries - more than the Czech Republic for example. It consumes a third (or was it a fifth?) of all the electricity of all data centers in the world. It is by no means insignificant.

If bitcoins price continues to rise, miners will be greatly incentivized to further decrease power costs. I hope this leads to innovation in clean power tech, especially in developing nations.

If bitcoin price continues to rise, wouldn't the power cost become relatively smaller? Wouldn't miners care less?

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The challenge for Tesla and Elon is that I don't see the exit strategy? If Elon sells off his Tesla shares in any sizable quantity, it seems the stock would drop massively. If Elon steps down his involvement or passed away, same thing. So it seems it needs to keep on the show until Tesla can actually sustain its value somehow through normal business operations.

Execs in any public company routinely sell shares at a pre-determined rate every quarter. Execs besides Elon have been selling as part of the plan, and company employees are free to sell as well. According to SEC filings, Elon himself hasn't sold any recently, but he owns 20% of Tesla, worth about $10B today. Even if Tesla drops 10x, he would have $100M worth of shares. Not to mention all his other assets, shares in…

> but he owns 20% of Tesla, worth about $10B today.

Tesla's market cap is $764.255B. 20% of that is $152.851B.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#637
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BTC cannot be stable, even eventually. There is no way to increase the BTC supply so when productivity increases, prices of goods (expressed in BTC) will always go up. Assume that BTC is the only currency and world productivity goes up 6% each year, or 0.5% each month. Then when you go in store to buy apple, you will see price gone up by 0.5% than previous month because there is no way to increase money supply. One o…

If BTC is the only currency and everyone is transacting in BTC, then people are incentivized to hold BTC. Now that everyone is holding BTC, the value of their holdings are increasing alongside everyone else holding BTC. If you go into the store to buy items you will notice that the price in BTC terms will be decreasing b/c more BTC can't be "printed". (Each BTC is worth a lot now and continually increasing, but at a…

That is deflation and is intentionally avoided by central banks because you don't want people to hoard their money. Hoarded money sits there and does nothing while money that is in banks can be lent out, invested, and be useful.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#638
post #336

Bitcoin has been around for a while now and it has been down talked quite a bit on HN whenever it comes up. It now has a larger market cap as Facebook - so the market sees more value in Bitcoin than Facebook. The sentiment on HN seem still be mostly against it whenever it comes up. I wonder why that is? I'd imagine 10 years from now Bitcoin will still be around and likely much larger than today - I'm less positive ab…

Market cap is a bad way to judge the real value of anything. If you were to sell 50% of all the bitcoin floating around in the world, how much would you impact the price? Would it remain above 40k? 30k? 20k? What's the cost basis of all the bitcoin holdings in the world? If the US government cracks down on bitcoin purchases by public companies, what happens to the price of bitcoin? Skeptics aren't skeptical because o…

Would you rather buy all the shares of Facebook for $1 or all the bitcoin?

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#639

Does anyone else feel like: - they've missed an opportunity to get rich with minimal effort from crypto - still have absolutely no interest in jumping in at this point?

Yes and no. I'm sure I wouldn't have hodled, so I didn't really "miss" anything. You also couldn't be too technically inclined because you'd fall in love with blockchain, cash out, but it all in ETH, and go work for a company building a computer architecture that runs at 100 Hz on Etherium for $1 per Hz that pays you a below-market rate, get acquiried when the company fails, and find yourself at FAANG, only to fail the acquihire interview. You also couldn't be too too technically inclined because you realize how inefficient the whole thing is.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#640

So it sounds like lemming group think. It seems like someone one should hold “just in case,” but no real valid reason to do so yet (that I’ve heard). We know transactions are slow and expensive, so it’s not a good replacement for ordinary commerce. It can be used to transfer across borders, but there often is asymmetry in capital movement that makes this difficult in the places you need it most (poor countries with r…

> So then it becomes a digital store of value, one that is only as valued as the market gives it, and typically markets eventually correct when there’s no underlying true value proposition (as we can see with $GME). You're not missing anything, you said it yourself it's a store of value. Maybe markets eventually correct, but in the last 10 years Bitcoin has only gone up, so if you had planned to use it to store value…

>in the last 10 years Bitcoin has only gone up

It was $19k in Dec 2017 and $3k in Dec 2018.

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