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Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
331–340 of 830 posts
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
That it is a hedge against inflation because of the network effect and vice versa.
Why would you hedge against something like inflation, which is relatively constant over a year, by putting your money into a highly speculative risk asset with absolutely insane volatility over that same timeframe? Like many arguments for Bitcoin, this one just doesn't make sense.
"Relatively constant over a year" seems very loose don't you think? In the past year we've seen an unprecedented injection of money into the system. Presuming you're living in the U.S. have a look south of the border to find out how every national currency is always a few economic policies from throwing inflation targets out of the window.
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#333I just wanted internet money, not a speculative financial instrument. :(
The only cryptocurrency that might one day become real “internet money” is nano , because it has no fees and transactions are almost instant.
Nano is fast and free because it is not used much. How many transactions per seconds did they achieve? I think it was in the ballpark of a 100, much too low for a global currency. Let's say 10% of the earth population want to use nano once a week. Then you need 0.1×8e9/(7×24×60×60)~1000tps. Then it might replace paypal, but not cash or card, and the microtransaction usecase is even farther away.
Indeed it seems better than bitcoin, but that's a low bar by now. I do like nano's idea of voting weight delegation, it seems like an elegant solution to keep the power over the system in the hand of the user/owners.
At the moment I feel a centralized privacy coin would work best for me. Centralization brings performance and the private part avoids excluding participants.
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it’s terrible as a wide spread value store because it removes an important tool that governments have to handle the economy (dealt with debt via inflation aka printing money How does a static rather than unconstrained supply make something a LESS good store of value?
Econ 101: the value of ordinary goods are determined both by supply and demand. Bitcoin-fanatic-USD-bears claim that Bitcoin is a good store of value because it has constrained supply. But they miss the demand side of the equation. Similarly, they claim that the USD is a bad source of value because it has "unlimited" supply. That also misses the demand side. The demand for USD is robust because people need USD to pay…
You didn't answer the question. In a situation where both have equal demand, how does unconstrained supply make it a better store of value?
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
When do you sell it though? If you had coins from 2011, is now the time to sell? What if it goes up 100x next year.
Set yourself a threshold amount that you are okay with a 100% loss on, and a periodic schedule based on your risk-appetite. At each interval if you are above your threshold you sell your excess holdings and if you are below you sit tight. Alternatively you can set yourself a price threshold. For example, sell half your holdings every time the price doubles. Essentially this acts as a log function on your gains in exc…
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Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#336Bitcoin has been around for a while now and it has been down talked quite a bit on HN whenever it comes up. It now has a larger market cap as Facebook - so the market sees more value in Bitcoin than Facebook.
The sentiment on HN seem still be mostly against it whenever it comes up. I wonder why that is? I'd imagine 10 years from now Bitcoin will still be around and likely much larger than today - I'm less positive about Facebook outlook and posture in 10 years actually.
I wonder what will change the opinion of the skeptics?
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
It sound like we're in agreement that it's a pump and dump scheme and not a true investment.
As they say - have fun staying poor. Think about it - if you had invested at any point in Bitcoin before today, you would have made money. But keep on resisting.
> Think about it - if you had invested at any point in Bitcoin before today, you would have made money. But keep on resisting.
That's irrelevant to me. It's not all about "getting rich". It's not like everyone can become rich off of bitcoin. The only way you make money is taking it from someone else. At the end of the day, real work needs to be done in the world.
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
Econ 101: the value of ordinary goods are determined both by supply and demand. Bitcoin-fanatic-USD-bears claim that Bitcoin is a good store of value because it has constrained supply. But they miss the demand side of the equation. Similarly, they claim that the USD is a bad source of value because it has "unlimited" supply. That also misses the demand side. The demand for USD is robust because people need USD to pay…
"The demand for USD is robust because people need USD to pay taxes..." You cite this a priori - but it's so much more complicated than this. Demand is intimately connected with supply in many cases. Soemtimes this can be because demand is latent. If production of food goes through the roof - and people were previously starving because the price of food was too high, then that latent demand will be released when suppl…
Citing "latent demand" or "induced demand" as counter-evidence to my original statement shows your (mis)understanding of basic economics. In fact, basic economics predicts "latent demand" for ordinary goods!
> But currency is different - opposite even. If supply goes through the roof - then demand will respond inversely.
This is terrible reasoning. It depends on why that supply is going through the roof. Maybe the supply is increasing because of higher demand? (Hint: increased demand for the USD is why the Fed is increasing the supply -- to keep the price stable.)
The phenomenon you're referring to is that, with all else equal, people will shift away from the USD if supply increases make the USD's value drop. But all else is not equal; demand for USD last year effected all-time high issuings of stocks and bonds.
Or, another way I could interpret this sentence is that you are claiming that the USD is not an ordinary good. Do you have some evidence to back that up?
> What is actually happening empirically is that people are coming to see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value over medium to long timeframes.
"Happening empirically." Have some numbers to back that up?
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gold is not in price discovery because its been around for so long and already had its ETF moment (which is why its stagnated since that massive run). But gold has always performed cyclically. Long term (very long term) its done quite well. Not my cup of tea but it had its place. Going forward I expect btc will disrupt it and flip its value (JPM making the same call).
Over the last 100 years, you'd have done significantly better by putting your money into an index fund -- and had less volatility. As far as I can tell, gold is just a lousy place to keep your money. What kind of long term are you talking about?
I agree with you in theory. However, over the course of 100yrs you also need to worry about entire countries disappearing. If your index fund is denominated in the wrong currency, held by the wrong custodian, or has too many companies based in falling countries, you might be in trouble. Meanwhile, Gold has survived a thousand generations.
In a hundred years, there can be wars, reparations, and lots of damage to equity.
I think some distinction should be made on store of value (win for gold) vs asset appreciation (win for stocks), especially once you start talking about 100years.
Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
#340Earlier quoted context omitted.
That it is a hedge against inflation because of the network effect and vice versa.
Why would you hedge against something like inflation, which is relatively constant over a year, by putting your money into a highly speculative risk asset with absolutely insane volatility over that same timeframe? Like many arguments for Bitcoin, this one just doesn't make sense.
The inflation may be constant each year but over the years it accumulates. Check yourself the inflation impact on your savings:
https://www.rl360.com/row/tools/inflation-calculator.htm
With inflation rate 2% after 25 years you lose about 40% of your savings value.