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California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

nytimes.com

141–150 of 299 posts

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#141
Why is this always framed as a problem caused by people looking for a place to live?

I moved to SF for a job. I'm not the one who decided to not build enough new housing for 30 years. I'm not the one who decided to approve all those new office buildings. Yet I was the problem for renting an overpriced apartment from an SF native who bought in the 90s, and now pays less than $8K/yr in taxes on a place worth over $1M. And now I'm still the problem if I decide to leave?

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately (for you), your desire for a quiet suburban neighborhood should not give you the ability to immiserate other people who want to live there by prohibiting the construction of homes for them. Do you value your quiet suburban neighborhood enough to buy and pay property taxes on the whole block or subdivision? If not, I recommend you look for estates on acreage in remote areas.

By the same token, nobody living in a residential neighborhood should oppose construction of an oil refinery in it - The industry would contribute tax revenue, jobs etc. to the community and opposition based on nebulous "quality of life" concerns is selfish

Residential land is far too valuable for someone to ever propose an oil refinery or manufacturing on it. The separation between industrial uses and residential uses were already underway before residential zoning was invented, and there is no reason to believe single family residential - which is a particular and extremely restrictive form of residential zoning - is necessary to enforce this kind of basic planning distinction.

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately (for you), your desire for a quiet suburban neighborhood should not give you the ability to immiserate other people who want to live there by prohibiting the construction of homes for them. Do you value your quiet suburban neighborhood enough to buy and pay property taxes on the whole block or subdivision? If not, I recommend you look for estates on acreage in remote areas.

By the same token, nobody living in a residential neighborhood should oppose construction of an oil refinery in it - The industry would contribute tax revenue, jobs etc. to the community and opposition based on nebulous "quality of life" concerns is selfish

There's a big difference between a power substation and an oil refinery. And depending on how that substation was built and the decisions made it can really negatively impact someone's use of their property. In my case the substation our PUD built across the street involved denuding the entire area of trees. This is mainly a problem because the freeway is right behind the trees they removed. So removing the trees made our front yard very difficult to inhabit for long periods of time because it's so loud. I'm not the only person affected either. And I wouldn't object had they built any kind of sound isolation.

I wouldn't object to an oil refinery either if they can guarantee they won't suddenly explode and kill me while I sleep.

The fact remains that we all have to be good neighbors to each other, and that cuts both ways.

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#144
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately (for you), your desire for a quiet suburban neighborhood should not give you the ability to immiserate other people who want to live there by prohibiting the construction of homes for them. Do you value your quiet suburban neighborhood enough to buy and pay property taxes on the whole block or subdivision? If not, I recommend you look for estates on acreage in remote areas.

He isn’t- but if enough others agree that is what they want, why shouldn’t they be able to? That’s literally what democracy is! It’s not their responsibility - not anyone’s! - to take a shot in the nuts so someone else can be happy, despite any guilt tripping.

This only works if you slice and dice the polity. Who says zoning in the Bay Area should be decided by current residents? The super commuter service workers from Modesto should certainly have a say. So should the families displaced to Phoenix or Las Vegas.

In addition, it is not a fair characterization to describe apartment buildings as "a shot in the nuts."

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's half a dozen or so big east coast cities that are expensive. Nevertheless you can find $200-400k houses 1-1.5hr out (half that if you're willing to sacrifice having a big yard) and rents are blue collar levels of affordable despite those cities being some of the most expensive (basically second to CA). The "housing crisis" is unique to California and markets that are jacked up by California money that wants o…

Having people drive til they qualify is a sign you have a housing crisis. Give me the name of some cities where home prices have tracked inflation in the last decade. Even better, tell me how Cleveland's suburbs have a land use regime that's any better than California?

Why would you expect home prices to track inflation in an environment where mortgage rates went from 4.76% to 2.74%?

I'd expect home prices to be bid up by an incremental amount over inflation in such an environment, as the monthly principal and interest payment for $100K borrowed at 4.76% is the same as for $128K borrowed at 2.74%. That's an additional 2.5% of house price inflation per year.

[0] - http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#146

The problem is that not only is there zero appetite to phase out housing-as-investment boosting policies like the mortgage interest deduction, imputed rent exemption, and cap gains exemption at the federal level, en vogue affordable housing strategies have focused on keeping interest rates low, providing 1st time home-buyer tax credits, and strengthening fair lending regulations. The U.S.(western nations with high ho…

I think removing many of these housing discounts would only partially impact housing costs, since these affect the majority of buyers and most home purchasing decisions are made on the basis of the monthly payment. That is, after removing some of these policies, people would probably still end up paying the same monthly payment, just with lower nominal housing costs. The bigger issue to me is the constriction of supp…

I think both you and OP have a point. The way it ties together is that "owner-occupied housing as a retirement plan" creates the political demand for NIMBY supply restrictions.

When people have 500% of their net worth tied up in a single piece of property, that created very strong incentives to lobby for policies that prop up the value of that asset. You take away the tax incentives, and the mortgage subsidies. People probably still wind up with similar monthly payments. But now as a percentage of their wealth, housing becomes much less important. A 10% decline in home prices no longer leads to a global financial crisis. That makes it a lot easier to build a political coalition to increase housing supply.

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having people drive til they qualify is a sign you have a housing crisis. Give me the name of some cities where home prices have tracked inflation in the last decade. Even better, tell me how Cleveland's suburbs have a land use regime that's any better than California?

Why would you expect home prices to track inflation in an environment where mortgage rates went from 4.76% to 2.74%? I'd expect home prices to be bid up by an incremental amount over inflation in such an environment, as the monthly principal and interest payment for $100K borrowed at 4.76% is the same as for $128K borrowed at 2.74%. That's an additional 2.5% of house price inflation per year. [0] - http://www.freddie…

Fair enough. For the reason you pointed out, prices of ownership are not the right metric. Replace "home prices" with "rent index" and my point still stands.

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would like to be educated if there's something I'm missing. Is there a legal maneuver in CA that can prevent people from using their real estate for whatever it's zoned for, excluding frivolous lawsuits?

Yes, many jurisdictions in California require city permits for demolition and the process for getting those permits is by no means guaranteed. In my city after you apply for a permit you have to post public notice for 90 days so your nosy neighbors have a chance to go to the "landmarks preservation commission" to argue that your dilapidated shack in which nobody has lived for 50 years is, in fact, a priceless treasur…

[deleted]

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#149
As long as money is relatively cheap (to borrow) for those qualified to borrow unaffordable housing is going to be a problem.

Cheap and easy loans increase demand. Increased demand increases prices. More and more are left out of the market (as buyer), are left to become renters (covering the cost of the inflated mortgages). Rinse and repeat.

In short: the problem with unaffordable housing is not simply solved by raising the minimum wage. In fact, that'll raise housing prices further by allowing the market to bear more.

Note: The same can be said of student loans and the cost of housing, sans the mortgage/lease bit.

Re: California’s affordable housing problem is really a national one

#150

I’ve been looking at housing prices periodically and it’s discouraging to find people wanting 200k-300k for mid-century houses in places you’d never find another job if the telecommuting trend ever reversed and so far it is just a trend driven by forced circumstances. Companies may be all for remote working while the alternative is shutting down, but what happens after the pandemic? Does everyone get recalled to the…

> Does everyone get recalled to the nearest office the first down quarter?

No. The habits of the past were only viable because everyone was indulging them. Those habits have been broken. Whether it's the lower cost of operation due to not squandering money on unnecessary facilities or the greater pool of talent available to those that accommodate remote workers or the business continuity advantages of a workforce that can continue to function despite this and inevitable future infectious disease problems remote work is here to stay. Those businesses that can leverage remote work will outcompete those that might but don't.

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