I have a feeling the ML community is going to pivot focus to faster and smaller training before larger advancements are made. It's simply too expensive for much AI research to happen when state of the art models take 500k of hardware to train. For all the mathematician hype around ML research, much of the work is closer to alchemy than science. We simply don't understand a great deal of why these neural nets work. Th…
I think you make a good observation that much of ML progress is driven by tinkering with existing models, though instead of describing it as more "alchemy than science" it's probably more accurate to say it's very experimental right now. Being very experimental is neither unscientific nor unusual in the development of knowledge. James Watt worked as an instrument maker (not a theoretician) when he invented the Watt steam engine in 1776 [1], and at the time the idea of heat as Phlogiston [2] was still more prevalent than anything that looks like modern thermodynamics. Theory and practice naturally take turns outpacing each other, which is part of why we need both.
I'd also caution against the belief that experimental work doesn't require "particularly demanding thought". There are many things one can tweak in current ML models (the search space is exponential) and, as you point out, the experiments are expensive. Having a solid understanding of the system, great intuition, and good heuristics is necessary to reliably make progress.
For those who are interested in the theory of deep learning, the community has recently made great strides on developing a mathematical understanding of neural networks. The research is still very cutting edge, but the following PDF helps introduce the topic [3].
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Watt
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory
[3]: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/courses/archive/fall19/cos597B/...