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The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

b.qr.ae

251–260 of 324 posts

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#251
post #14

I would love to see a currency like this work, and I would be interested in using one, but the major issue for bitcoin, for me, is that deflation is built into its core. Inflation is a good thing. Inflation encourages holders of capital to use it to invest in other things. That is, inflation encourages productivity. The inflation has to be relatively low, of course. Probably low enough to allow someone to retire with…

"That is, inflation encourages productivity."

Wrong. Inflation encourages to invest in commodities or real estates. Watch for increasing price of metals, agriculture products. The primary cause of real estate bubble in US was cheap money.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#252

Hi, I'm Adam, I wrote this answer on Quora. Against my better judgement, I'm going to wade in here and make a couple of clarifying points. 1 - Scam. I regret using the word "scam" in my answer, because I think it overshadows the broader point I was making about Bitcoin's severe structural design flaws. After watching the community react to this debate, I'm pretty confident that the average bitcoin supporter is not in…

Thanks so very much for the clarification and the tempering of your response-- that "scam" wording was the only thing that gave me hesitation on whether you were objectively reviewing it from an economic standpoint. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of idealists behind it, but I haven't (yet) seen anyone excited about the currency that wanted to defraud anyone.

Bitcoins are quite likely a mistaken long-term investment, but it doesn't seem like its proponents are trying to trick anyone about the core ideas.

I'm just hopeful that it encourages more creativity in the space of private online transactions, digital currency advances, etc.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suppose you need capital to commence on some enterprise. You'd like to borrow against and/or sell a share of future income. How can you convince a bank[1] to give you money, if the bank's money is already producing a healthy return just sitting in the bank's vault? In an inflationary scenario, money is declining in value. People with a lot of it are actively looking for ways to put it to work, otherwise they'll end u…

I think this is obvious -- a bank will lend you money if you can offer returns in excess of the risk-free rate of return, balanced by the perceived risk and collateral for the loan. Similarly, an individual will deposit money in a bank rather than keep it under their mattress only if the bank offers returns in excess of what it gets sitting in the mattress. Since at the moment there is no FBDIC, as an individual you…

But in a hyper-deflationary environment, which seems bound to happen with a currency with a fixed supply in a growing economy, almost no investment could provide returns in excess of the risk-free rate.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#254

Hi, I'm Adam, I wrote this answer on Quora. Against my better judgement, I'm going to wade in here and make a couple of clarifying points. 1 - Scam. I regret using the word "scam" in my answer, because I think it overshadows the broader point I was making about Bitcoin's severe structural design flaws. After watching the community react to this debate, I'm pretty confident that the average bitcoin supporter is not in…

I don't know why, but I'm suddenly remembering 1637, the Netherlands and some exotic tulip. Don't get me wrong, I think this is a wonderful technological breakthrough! But unless the flaws pointed out by the author are remedied, this will end in tears. Of course with bitcoins being the phenomenon they are right now, I don't expect many to agree with me :D

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#255
post #49

Trollish headline. One fair non-structural criticism, a weak, temporary criticism and two things billed as criticisms that aren't. 1) Early adopters. I couldn't find a point here. I think he's saying that it's unfair that some people get in early. But in the current system, it's unfair that government (through tax law and control of force) mandates that you use a form of money that doesn't function well as a store of…

Re: Deflation You're thinking too small. Think of holders of vast wealth, who in an inflationary system, are forced to invest their money and earn a significant return in order simply to maintain the value of their wealth. In a deflationary system, they are no longer at risk of losing wealth by letting their money sit in a bank, and so the least risky course of action for them is to simply hold on to their money. Thi…

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Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#256
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand currency and shares are not the same thing, I don't understand this addresses OP. > A share, meanwhile, is a direct claim on things themselves. What if you buy a share of an ETF?

A share of an ETF is a claim on a financial asset that is backed by claims in other financial assets, usually stocks. So while it is one level higher than directly owning securities, it is still a claim on productive economic assets.

For the sake of preventing a tautological melt-down could you define "securities"?

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#257
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the GDP graph also doesn't look anything like that monetary supply graph. Huh? [0] [0] http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met_y=ny_gdp_...

Compare those two graphs from say 2006 on. I am mystified that you would look at a graph with a giant, dominant spike, and conclude my point was about the shape before the spike. Edits: To make it clear I'm not arguing with the statement that money supply has tracked GDP fairly well until recently. Or that GDP has trended up exponentially.

Oh I get it: this is one of those "man, the Fed is messing up" rants!

Yeah, I won't take part except to say (a) you're sampling 4 years of incredibly volatile economic activity, and (b) the other, uh, 96 years exhibit a pretty strong exponential trend.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#258
Everyone keeps debating whether or not the built in deflation is good or bad. But... how does bitcoin have built in deflation? It only has a decreasing rate of inflation, which can't go negative (since bitcoins aren't destroyed). So assuming the demand for bitcoins becomes constant, their value will be constant.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#259
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the GDP graph also doesn't look anything like that monetary supply graph. Huh? [0] [0] http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met_y=ny_gdp_...

Compare those two graphs from say 2006 on. I am mystified that you would look at a graph with a giant, dominant spike, and conclude my point was about the shape before the spike. Edits: To make it clear I'm not arguing with the statement that money supply has tracked GDP fairly well until recently. Or that GDP has trended up exponentially.

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Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#260
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try implementing that!

Is there anything in the specification that's you think is ambiguous or hard to understand? There's also the source code to bitcoinj, which is a very well-commented implementation of the protocol.

Ok, my question was really as to how they even discover each other but some more perusing of that site shows that they connect to a IRC channel.

I thought there was no centralized point-of-failure?

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