Earlier quoted context omitted.
In fairness, electric cars are the future and everyone knows it. Sure, the company Tesla may not be the exact one to steer the ship in 20 years, but it’s not like we’re backing zeppelins here.
Electrification of cars does not justify trillion dollar investment. It's already a solved problem, it needs incremental investment to scale horizontally. Making the cars and the charger network is the kind of thing that is easily commodified and outsourced. The more challenging problem will be to provide adequate electricity for the cars. Self-driving is a pipe-dream and a marketing vehicle, not gonna happen anytime…
How Covid brought the future back
31–40 of 78 posts
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#32Re: How Covid brought the future back
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
But those stocks' rises pale in comparison to the rises of some of the aforementioned securities - particularly Tesla. BioNTech/Moderna are poised to income streams of billions of $ through guaranteed sales, with the very real possibility of more to come if either revaccination is necessary or there are more applications for the mRNA technology. With that in mind, they are quite conservatively valued by the market ri…
Moderna has not been distributing its vaccines fast enough internationally. There is a timer to these things you know, because the virus can mutate more. For that reason I'd rather put my investment in 3D printing or something.
Since the results of the regulatory tests and safety and efficacy validations can mostly be transferred for slight vaccine modifications (at least that's my state of knowledge), a variation should not have to go through the entire chain of test phases again before it can be cleared for use.
If anything, the prospect of mutations can only be seen as a significant moat for mRNA vaccine manufacturers, because their technology is the fastest when it comes to such adaptions.
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is everything a large group of people do collectively called a 'mob' these days, for everything? Is no one allowed to do things together anymore without being chastised?
>Why is everything a large group of people do collectively called a 'mob' these days? These days? It's always been thus. The Roman Poet Juvenal who said: "It is all too easy to fall from power – like Sejanus. The mob follows Fortuna and cares for nothing but bread and circuses." (Circuses can also be games, or in modern times TV, Games, Netflix, Reddit, etc...). You ever see Gladiator? Lucilla: "The gods have spared…
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is something different this time. People en masse have started using the S&P 500 and other index funds as a long term store of value. Large amounts of money buy these stocks every pay period with zero regard to performance or current market conditions. As far as I'm aware, this has never happened before. We don't know how this experiment will change the market long term or whether it will eventually collapse.
It’s different every time, isn’t it? World War II was different, the oil crisis in the 70s was different, debt in the 80s, doctom bubble in the 90s, the financial crisis was really different, and now this pandemic and the sheer volumes of money. It’s different every time, but economic growth has been a constant and tied to this are ultimately the prices of securities. That’s not gonna be different. So it’s a very san…
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#36The first, raised in the context of development of the transistor and how it was stalled by WW2, is some notion of “future improvement motivation”. The author suggests that the transistor came about because the people involved wanted to improve the future.
I’d assert that the people involved wanted to improve switching speeds and reduce power requirements, and were driven by curiosity. That they changed the world was a side effect. A big one, but unintentional.
The second notion is bound into the idea of people being optimistic about the future and taking as its evidence that people are “investing” for future growth.
My take? A lot of people are afraid and uncertain and are looking desperately for a short term windfall, and some people fear they won’t have a job in X years so they might as well plow their money into whatever is rising.
The author’s position requires rational investors. We know the rational agent model is bunk.
The third questionable idea is that somehow the plague gave us usable time and that people are using this to their advantage. Sure, some may be, but most of us got anxiety, longer hours because work was more accessible (just down the hall) AND a refuge from plague fear and future fear and bad news, et al, etc.
What the author writes may be true for a small fraction of us. But not for most/all.
The term bubble may best describe where the author lives: in an optimistic, future-looking, rational place. Many of us may hope to live there, few of us do.
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#37I think he should say mostly. Fed balance sheet growth has been unprecendented and those folks who have not lost their jobs and are no longer spending on tourism are dumping their USG direct payments into Robinhood.
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s different every time, isn’t it? World War II was different, the oil crisis in the 70s was different, debt in the 80s, doctom bubble in the 90s, the financial crisis was really different, and now this pandemic and the sheer volumes of money. It’s different every time, but economic growth has been a constant and tied to this are ultimately the prices of securities. That’s not gonna be different. So it’s a very san…
Index funds are a good, safe set and forget option. In boring times, the performance is not much worse and even sometimes better. In times of upheaval though, the high volatility makes active trading MUCH more profitable.
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s different every time, isn’t it? World War II was different, the oil crisis in the 70s was different, debt in the 80s, doctom bubble in the 90s, the financial crisis was really different, and now this pandemic and the sheer volumes of money. It’s different every time, but economic growth has been a constant and tied to this are ultimately the prices of securities. That’s not gonna be different. So it’s a very san…
Index funds are a good, safe set and forget option. In boring times, the performance is not much worse and even sometimes better. In times of upheaval though, the high volatility makes active trading MUCH more profitable.
Re: How Covid brought the future back
#40In fact, some economists continued to argue after 2000 that “bubble” is a meaningless category. Uh oh. "Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau" - Irving Fisher, economist, early October 1929.
I've been listening to people say this "uh oh" since 2009. I think literally every year. Not a single year has gone by when someone doesn't "uh oh" and post something about turkeys at Thanksgiving.