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How Covid brought the future back

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11–20 of 78 posts

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#11
post #5
post #4

In fact, some economists continued to argue after 2000 that “bubble” is a meaningless category. Uh oh. "Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau" - Irving Fisher, economist, early October 1929.

There is something different this time. People en masse have started using the S&P 500 and other index funds as a long term store of value. Large amounts of money buy these stocks every pay period with zero regard to performance or current market conditions. As far as I'm aware, this has never happened before. We don't know how this experiment will change the market long term or whether it will eventually collapse.

You're absolutely right, its not the same and it will likely fail in ways we can't predict just yet.

The 2008 crisis taught the US Federal Reserve how to respond to an economic crisis effectively, and they've been pretty successful at managing the current one. Note that Fed's main concerns are macroeconomic, so their assistance necessarily goes mostly to larger corporations and financial institutions, which seem to be doing OK (smaller businesses are suffering, but Congress stepped in for them... somewhat). I don't anticipate a liquidity shortage-triggered panic + recession like 2008.

However, all asset prices seem to be inflated. Real estate, crypto, stocks... all going up and up. They can't do so forever, it will be interesting to see how it fails this time.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#12

> a striking rise in investor interest in electric vehicles, autonomous cars, AI, and software companies ranging from consumer-facing companies like Facebook and Google to complex enterprise products like Snowflake ... Or, a striking rise in investing in whatever the mob thinks will make money, even when it is not, from tesla to bitcoin. If they were investing in the future they 'd be investing in ModeRNA / Biontech

In fairness, electric cars are the future and everyone knows it. Sure, the company Tesla may not be the exact one to steer the ship in 20 years, but it’s not like we’re backing zeppelins here.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#13
post #2

This article is all over the place. The author starts with some history on how crisis and necessity for better life brings ideas to life, and then half the article is defending his view on the TSLA stock. Apart from this, yes ,it’s cleat that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste, and companies are forced to innovate as the current struggles provide them opportunities to shine.

Indeed. I mean, I own Telsa stock, so I'm not unhappy about what it's doing, but I'm not about to invent reasons why it makes sense. Eventually the major manufacturers like Toyota and VW are going to pivot and Tesla is going to be an entertaining footnote of daring that paid off ... in past tense.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#14
This article seems a bit disjointed and ambling.

Can we also argue that this surge of investment is correlated to people staying at home and thus having more money to spend that would have been used on food, entertainment, etc... ?

İm not sure whether or not this is correct considering the negative economic effects of covid for many people, but it might have caused a surge in investing for a certain deomographic.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#15

> a striking rise in investor interest in electric vehicles, autonomous cars, AI, and software companies ranging from consumer-facing companies like Facebook and Google to complex enterprise products like Snowflake ... Or, a striking rise in investing in whatever the mob thinks will make money, even when it is not, from tesla to bitcoin. If they were investing in the future they 'd be investing in ModeRNA / Biontech

Well, they did that too...

But those stocks' rises pale in comparison to the rises of some of the aforementioned securities - particularly Tesla.

BioNTech/Moderna are poised to income streams of billions of $ through guaranteed sales, with the very real possibility of more to come if either revaccination is necessary or there are more applications for the mRNA technology.

With that in mind, they are quite conservatively valued by the market right now.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#16

> a striking rise in investor interest in electric vehicles, autonomous cars, AI, and software companies ranging from consumer-facing companies like Facebook and Google to complex enterprise products like Snowflake ... Or, a striking rise in investing in whatever the mob thinks will make money, even when it is not, from tesla to bitcoin. If they were investing in the future they 'd be investing in ModeRNA / Biontech

The biotech sector actually outperformed the tech sector last year.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#17

> a striking rise in investor interest in electric vehicles, autonomous cars, AI, and software companies ranging from consumer-facing companies like Facebook and Google to complex enterprise products like Snowflake ... Or, a striking rise in investing in whatever the mob thinks will make money, even when it is not, from tesla to bitcoin. If they were investing in the future they 'd be investing in ModeRNA / Biontech

Why is everything a large group of people do collectively called a 'mob' these days, for everything? Is no one allowed to do things together anymore without being chastised?

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#18
COVID made people appreciate the value of technology.

For example, autonomous vehicles, whether automobiles or drones, take on much greater importance when much of the population is restricted to their homes and needs goods delivered, preferrably without interacting with a human.

Machine learning goes from a technology that can make our lives more comfortable and improve the bottom line, to one that can end a global catastophe.

Ending regulatory morass goes from a theoretical interest in the pursuit of abstract GDP growth statistics, to an imperative to prevent any future repetitions of the six week delay in COVID testing caused by the FDA at the outset of the pandemic in the US [1], or the regulatory delays in making available low-cost/makeshift ventilators, rapid at-home COVID tests, etc.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#19
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they did that too...

But those stocks' rises pale in comparison to the rises of some of the aforementioned securities - particularly Tesla. BioNTech/Moderna are poised to income streams of billions of $ through guaranteed sales, with the very real possibility of more to come if either revaccination is necessary or there are more applications for the mRNA technology. With that in mind, they are quite conservatively valued by the market ri…

Moderna has not been distributing its vaccines fast enough internationally. There is a timer to these things you know, because the virus can mutate more. For that reason I'd rather put my investment in 3D printing or something.

Re: How Covid brought the future back

#20
post #11
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is something different this time. People en masse have started using the S&P 500 and other index funds as a long term store of value. Large amounts of money buy these stocks every pay period with zero regard to performance or current market conditions. As far as I'm aware, this has never happened before. We don't know how this experiment will change the market long term or whether it will eventually collapse.

You're absolutely right, its not the same and it will likely fail in ways we can't predict just yet. The 2008 crisis taught the US Federal Reserve how to respond to an economic crisis effectively, and they've been pretty successful at managing the current one. Note that Fed's main concerns are macroeconomic, so their assistance necessarily goes mostly to larger corporations and financial institutions, which seem to b…

When you tie pricing metrics to interest rates, they are either not inflated or not that inflated.

You have to account for the amount of money in the system and how that money seeks to beat inflation.

You can't just pick up 40-year old chart analysis books and say "aha the P/E ratio for this sector is higher than normal", it is all part of an ecosystem.

The macroeconomic policy is going to be a greater influence than any chart-based psychology proxy or seeing how many essential workers are talking about investing their spare change.

Right now, more money is going to be created or distributed in the trillions. If the Central Banks are instructed to be involved, or chose to be involved, their method of getting new money into the market will be by purchasing more bonds which pushes interest rates even lower.

The only thing this didn't predict were new ephemeral asset classes, crypto. That people are opting to buy.

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