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The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

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Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#31
post #21
post #14

I would love to see a currency like this work, and I would be interested in using one, but the major issue for bitcoin, for me, is that deflation is built into its core. Inflation is a good thing. Inflation encourages holders of capital to use it to invest in other things. That is, inflation encourages productivity. The inflation has to be relatively low, of course. Probably low enough to allow someone to retire with…

An inflationist currency is great if you are deep in debt or like cheap consumer credit. Deflation (or really constant value) means that those who save, build things and invest wisely will benefit. And no, I am not going to starve today, so that I can get marginally more bread a year from now.

I don't know. Maybe.

It seems like it would just create aristocracy. If I inherit a large sum of money, I have incentive to ensure that my large sum of money increases (or at least doesn't decrease) in value in the easiest, least risky way possible. If my wealth was in bitcoin, I wouldn't have to do much, except ensure that more people join bitcoin and that the bitcoin didn't disappear. Otherwise, I would just play warcraft all day, procreate, and then die and split my wealth amongst my children to continue the cycle.

If my wealth was in an inflationary currency, I would have much more incentive to take on risk. Perhaps through that risk taking, I end up losing my wealth, and others gain. Or, perhaps I gain more wealth. At least I have incentive to take productive action.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#32
post #19

Since this post - the value of Bitcoin went from aprox $2 to over $10 :-))))))))) proof: https://mtgox.com/trade/megaChart

Since that idiot last poo-pooed tulips I've made an absolutely massive return. My retirement is assured!

I'm thinking about buying shares in the South Sea Company next.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#33
post #14

I would love to see a currency like this work, and I would be interested in using one, but the major issue for bitcoin, for me, is that deflation is built into its core. Inflation is a good thing. Inflation encourages holders of capital to use it to invest in other things. That is, inflation encourages productivity. The inflation has to be relatively low, of course. Probably low enough to allow someone to retire with…

I don't understand. If a man can earn an expected 3% interest (in real terms) by buying a certain investment, is he less likely to buy it in a deflationary environment than in an inflationary environment?

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#34
post #8

His arguments are valid to some extent. They may not be fatal though. Taking each one in turn: 1) Seeding Initial Wealth This isn't really a problem. It's not very fair , but I don't think he argues that is actually a problem. 2) Built in Deflation This is a big, big problem. It seems the creators of Bitcoin have a philosophical disagreement with conventional economic theories that state that increases in money suppl…

Why is deflation a problem? Keep in mind that it's just one currency out of many worldwide. If inflation is required in the service of a country, nothing stops them from inflating. Same with point 4 - instant deflation would just raise the value of existing bitcoins, unless it affected the confidence levels in the currency. What would happen if somebody smoked half the gold world-wide? Deflation of gold, which most gold investors would love.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#35
post #8

His arguments are valid to some extent. They may not be fatal though. Taking each one in turn: 1) Seeding Initial Wealth This isn't really a problem. It's not very fair , but I don't think he argues that is actually a problem. 2) Built in Deflation This is a big, big problem. It seems the creators of Bitcoin have a philosophical disagreement with conventional economic theories that state that increases in money suppl…

#1) This happens historically with many curencies. Making things more attractive to early adopters (but nto TOO attractive) gives this momontum to take off.

#2) Deflation is bad with real currencies because real currencies are tied to real economies and key things like food bein grown, healthcare, etc - and they are run on debt. In deflation, things get cheaper. Money buys more. But people only need so many cards, so many houses, so many rolls of toilet paper - so produces get net less money for their product over time. You now have to sell twice as many shoes to keep up payroll. BTC could be fine because in this - as it's position of a value store is somewhat different - it's not attached to anyone or anything, and it works digitally in the true sense of a crypto currency. The fact that it has an exchange rate demonstrates that it is working.

Convertibility: This is the same with every other form of electronic-transfer today. State actors telly ou how much, when, where, and what kind you are and are not allowed to do. Some states forbid their citizens from removing currency from the country period. They still "work"

4) This is the same as any other e-commerce provider out there (e-gold, etc) - except in those cases we feel we have someone to sue or whatever. But we're not just talking electronic payment methods - we're talking about an actual crypto currency. If the algorithm turns out to be flawed, yes, it will collapse totally. Thankfully it's open and transparent - and hopefully strongenough. If someoen wanted to damage any currency, tehy could buy up tons of it (with real money! and zap it from circulation. All that buying might drive the price up as well. If they then destroy it - right on, they've driven the price ven higher.

Again, the deflation would only be a problem if people start denominating debts in bitcoins - rather than at market rates set against other currencies they actually get paid in, which seems to be where this will go. If it turns out to be managed and run the way it's planned out - I'd have no problem telling someone "Yup, you can pay me $x USD in BTC calculated at the average closing rate over the last week" or whatever was a mutually agreeable term.

Also - as I haven't read the whole protoocl (but mean to) - if someone deliberately destroyed them - hwo would that affect value - they'd have to let everyone know, right? How do you prove you destroyed them?

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#36
post #19

Since this post - the value of Bitcoin went from aprox $2 to over $10 :-))))))))) proof: https://mtgox.com/trade/megaChart

Since that idiot last poo-pooed tulips I've made an absolutely massive return. My retirement is assured! I'm thinking about buying shares in the South Sea Company next.

It is worrying to me that the public exchanges have so few bids and offers most of the time, and that it is extremely common for people to deal in these things privately to avoid moving the price.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#37
post #28
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes just a few keystrokes to type "fundamentally flawed", but people seems to not agree whether that's really the case. So why do you think it is flawed?

I don't know shit about economics, so I can't say anything useful about that aspect of Bitcoin. I do know a little about distributed systems and p2p however. Disclaimer: Bitcoin is a bit of black magic so I'm not going to claim I know every detail about it. I did read the original paper, so I'll focus on what I got from reading it. First of all, Bitcoin replicates work over all nodes. This means you need a global bro…

Thank you very much. I posted your remarks into technical discussion, where someone was postulating ideas about addressing scalability by somehow making blocks smaller, and applying a divide and conquer strategy.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=11189

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#38
post #8

His arguments are valid to some extent. They may not be fatal though. Taking each one in turn: 1) Seeding Initial Wealth This isn't really a problem. It's not very fair , but I don't think he argues that is actually a problem. 2) Built in Deflation This is a big, big problem. It seems the creators of Bitcoin have a philosophical disagreement with conventional economic theories that state that increases in money suppl…

Why is deflation a problem? Keep in mind that it's just one currency out of many worldwide. If inflation is required in the service of a country, nothing stops them from inflating. Same with point 4 - instant deflation would just raise the value of existing bitcoins, unless it affected the confidence levels in the currency. What would happen if somebody smoked half the gold world-wide? Deflation of gold, which most g…

Yes, you are right about deflation increasing the value of Bitcoins. That might make them a great investment.

But Bitcoins are supposed to be a currency, not an investment. A currency needs to be used to transfer value, not sit around appreciating.

If people sit on their Bitcoins as an investment then it will fail, because no one will ever accept it as a currency.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#39
Bitcoin is a marketing-based currency in the sense that it has no real value besides the fact that it was the first currency with cryptographic properties that gained widespread adoption: if someone would take the code and fork it into an alternative ("Webcoins"), the intrinsec value of a Webcoin would be zero (unless it also found a way to gain market share or early adopters).

That's very similar with a Ponzi scheme, where you need early adopters to pour money in, so you can have a positive cashflow on which to iterate with other customers. But otherwise you don't have an underlying asset to sustain the value.

Re: The Quora post that killed Bitcoins. Please discuss if his arguments are valid.

#40
post #22

I think the other article ( http://apenwarr.ca/log/?m=201105 ) written about bitcoin failing is more detailed and contains potentially more plausible ways of how bitcoin can fail. The openwarr article refers to potential failures with the SHA256 backbone of bitcoins. "With bitcoin, a single failure of the cryptosystem could result in an utter collapse of the entire financial network. Unlimited inflation. Fake transac…

This is more along the lines of "SHA256 has not been proven to be secure, therefore, it may be cracked." It would require novel discoveries in mathematics to do so.
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