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Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

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Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#81

Post by hanniabu »

guenthert wrote: post #73
rybosworld wrote: post #10

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

> Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers. Inflation serves a purpose. The cash is devalued not on a whim, but to prevent collapse. Bitcoin indeed prevents that. Fortunately it's just a fringe market. Lets hope it stays that way.

> The cash is devalued not on a whim, but to prevent collapse.

Tell that to Venezuela.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#82

Post by PragmaticPulp »

rawtxapp wrote: post #49
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot of the early adopters have either permanently lost their coins or sold it If the balance of a Bitcoin economy relies on the assumption that certain people have lost their money, something is seriously wrong. Regardless, a hypothetical Bitcoin economy would require much further buy-in from here, making current holders the early adopters. > It's like saying by the time a company IPOs, early VCs have benefited t…

It was considered worthless at the time so many weren't careful with it. People are going to be a lot more careful when their coins are priced at 44k+.

Doesn’t matter. Most of the coins have already been mined. New entrants must buy from old entrants.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#83

Post by coralreef »

deeeeplearning wrote: post #61
coralreef wrote: post #46

Funny trend: solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal. https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/11/Price-of-electric... Here's a hot take: Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy development. Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. Cost of development and manufacturing lowers further because of scale; pollution and externalities reduced; humanity wins. Bitcoin saves humanity?

>Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. This true in China where most mining happens?

The data I've seen is spotty at best; maybe 40% of mining in China occurs in Inner Mongolia and is based on coal?

That said, lets take a first principles approach.

- Miners want low cost energy.

- Renewables are the lowest cost energy.

- Miners are not restricted geographically (can mine anywhere cheap energy is, beam bits through satellite internet).

- Cost curves of renewable energy look very promising.

- Social trends and political trends look very promising.

If you believe in efficient markets, then it should be obvious as to what the next 10 years of energy production (and Bitcoin mining) look like.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#84

Post by Ecstatify »

mamon wrote: post #43

Nouriel Roubini has a well known hate for Bitcoin, which probably originates from the fact that it escapes his alleged "expertise": he hasn't foreseen its popularity, and rise in value. Now he hates it, because this past mistake threatens his status as financial guru, "Dr Doom". EDIT: I wouldn't take anything he says about it seriously, he's basically clueless on the topic. EDIT2: In free markets value of something,…

Don’t agree with what he says let’s attack his intellect...

“originates from the fact that it escapes his alleged ‘expertise’”

“he’s basically clueless on the topic”

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#85

Post by guenthert »

deeeeplearning wrote: post #71
guenthert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. Gold has many uses other then used as currency or for speculation.

If you account for the damage to the environment mining gold causes its value is actually negative

I don't think you appreciate the use of gold. For one, every chip is using it. Would we better off without semiconductors in exchange for a few less mercury ponds?

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#86

Post by nickysielicki »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19
bustin wrote: post #5

How does someone measure the potential value of "being a pain in the ass to those who seek to control the supply of money"

It’s amazing that the popular narrative is that the average person will somehow benefit if we switch to a currency that is majority owned by a small handful of early adopters. I’m not a fan of the current inflationary economic policy, but in no way would a Bitcoin economy be a win for the average person. Early adopters and Bitcoin whales would love it because they hold the vast majority of Bitcoin. They want nothing…

> I’m not a fan of the current inflationary economic policy, but in no way would a Bitcoin economy be a win for the average person.

Don't confuse the cause and effect. If there's massive inflation and bitcoin becomes highly relevant, you're losing if you hold USD, no matter what! The arrogant central bankers are the cause. Nobody is cheering for that. Bitcoin is just a hedge.

If you're afraid of stagflation and you want to park your money in something that holds value, what should you buy? Precious metals, which have been manipulated for decades? Property, in the context of yet another housing bubble?

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#87

Post by meowkit »

rytill wrote: post #67
dnautics wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so is capitalism, so is socialism, so is biology, etc...

What does socialism optimize for?

Equivalency of status (power) and equity (wealth).

That is not a stable state in our reality though, which is why it falls apart at some point.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#89

Post by rawtxapp »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #79
rawtxapp wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if the price increased at 1$, and you didn't sell any, you risked it going back to 0$. From that perspective, there's a risk holding on to it.

Investments are made to fund value creation. What value did they create? If the underpinnings of an economy accrue value purely to speculators while devaluing (in BTC-relative terms) actual assets and value creation, it has a major incentive problem. What’s the one and only thing Bitcoiners want you to do with Bitcoin? Buy. That’s it. Any other use, including spending, is actively discouraged.

The value they created is a currency that's not controlled by a select few people.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#90

Post by PragmaticPulp »

coralreef wrote: post #46

Funny trend: solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal. https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/11/Price-of-electric... Here's a hot take: Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy development. Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. Cost of development and manufacturing lowers further because of scale; pollution and externalities reduced; humanity wins. Bitcoin saves humanity?

Cost of wind and solar was going down already.

Bitcoin alone isn’t the driver.

Bitcoin is, however, consuming some of that new energy generation with a new consumption: Doing useless calculations to mine Bitcoin.

Bitcoin increases energy demand which also drives an increase in supply. We can’t take old power plants offline if the new hydro power is taken up by new mining operations.

It’s silly that we’re going to such lengths to try to respin Bitcoin’s absurd energy inefficiency.

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