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Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#151

Post by ogre_codes »

dingaling wrote: post #119
ogre_codes wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get…

> Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. They've been saying that since 2018

> They've been saying that since 2018

Nonsense.

Tesla only announced an interest in a low end car at their "Mega super battery event". Even there it was without a timeline. My 4 years was a WAG. Prior to that, the Model 3 was their budget car.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#152

Post by ogre_codes »

clouddrover wrote: post #104
ogre_codes wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GM is ... selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy. They are not selling a $25k car. The fact that they can still collect the subsidy is a sign of how bad they've done in this market. I'm not sure why the Bolt isn't more popular for the money. Well aside from the fact that it's ugly.

> GM is selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy No, GM incentives. > The fact that they can still collect the subsidy No, they can't. The federal tax subsidy expired a while ago: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-car-tax-credit-g... Here's a list of EVs still eligible federal tax credits. The Bolt is not one of them: https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-...

> No, GM incentives.

Hmm, I hadn't realized they were out of government subs. That explains why they are discounting them so deeply. My local dealer has them down to $29k which is tempting, but it would be hard to drop that kind of cash on a car I think is ugly (I know appearance is subjective so YMMV). For the price, dropping a few grand extra to get the spunkier Model 3 with the Supercharger network seems like a no-brainer.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#153

Post by ogre_codes »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #123
ogre_codes wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The large company discontinues the vehicle lineup, citing overrun cost issues and market disinterest for EVs save for a few Tesla fanboy diehards. We're at the bottom of the hockey stick here. There is no "discontinued lineup", in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors. It might be sooner than that. By the time Ford even starts to see return on their $29B it's likely to be a who…

> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will a…

Electric cars are going to slaughter hydrogen for one simple reason. Once people get used to the convenience of their car getting filled up every night when they are at home, they will never go back.

There may be a parallel H2 network for industrial vehicles of some kinds. But the vast majority of personal use is going to be electric.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#154

Post by ogre_codes »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #138
nickik wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are completely wrong, let me make the argument. As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. The manufacturing and materials are very both complex and expensive. You need the fuel cell itself, and that is not just some thin layer, but a whole complex subsystem that requires…

> As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. Toyota Mirai 2 curb weight 1925 kg vs Tesla P100 curb weight 2241 kg. Both have the range of 500 to 507 km. But with a Mirai, given that the infra for filling up would exist, I’d spend 5 minutes filling up instead of 40 at a charging stati…

> I’d spend 5 minutes filling up instead of 40 at a charging station. My math is okay.

On most weeks, an EV owner spends zero hours on fuel ups since they plug in at home. They will also save significantly on power since it's much cheaper to distribute power to your home than to drive hydrogen all over the countryside.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#155

Post by erik_seaberg »

ogre_codes wrote: post #154
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. Toyota Mirai 2 curb weight 1925 kg vs Tesla P100 curb weight 2241 kg. Both have the range of 500 to 507 km. But with a Mirai, given that the infra for filling up would exist, I’d spend 5 minutes filling up instead of 40 at a charging stati…

> I’d spend 5 minutes filling up instead of 40 at a charging station. My math is okay. On most weeks, an EV owner spends zero hours on fuel ups since they plug in at home. They will also save significantly on power since it's much cheaper to distribute power to your home than to drive hydrogen all over the countryside.

Charging speed is preventing a lot of people from operating EVs, because there is no charger where we park overnight.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#156

Post by ogre_codes »

erik_seaberg wrote: post #155
ogre_codes wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’d spend 5 minutes filling up instead of 40 at a charging station. My math is okay. On most weeks, an EV owner spends zero hours on fuel ups since they plug in at home. They will also save significantly on power since it's much cheaper to distribute power to your home than to drive hydrogen all over the countryside.

Charging speed is preventing a lot of people from operating EVs, because there is no charger where we park overnight.

A fair enough statement. A bit of an electric divide.

I'll put it a bit differently though. Setting aside environmental concerns, why would you buy a hydrogen car as opposed to a regular old gasoline car?

Charging from home is a substantial benefit of EVs, performance is another. The Mirai is neither a particularly performant car, nor can you charge from home. Why would you switch to a car with a non-existent fuel network? Even once the network exists, why switch?

Obviously, the environmental issues still exist, but right now that is the only reason you'd buy the Mirai instead of many less expensive non H2 options. The Tesla is interesting even without the environmental aspects.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#157

Post by ogre_codes »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #145
rasz wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mirai 182 hp / 300Nm, seems to me they arent all that comparable.

If one needs 3s 0 to 62mph, sure. *Edit: also, compare the price. Mirai 2 will cost €63900. Basic Model S is €81200+ (even 10% tariffs are not getting it close) and P100d is what, €130k+? Nuts.

You are comparing a hypothetically viable thing to an actual shipping, proven product. Without seeing the hydro network in place, seeing what retail prices are on hydrogen in volume, this is all supposition. While the Mirai is shipping, the fueling network is sparse and incapable of handling more than a few cars. Hundreds of thousands of EVs are out there in use. Fuel Cell cars are largely in prolonged beta while they figure out how to deliver fuel to a car that may never ship in volume.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#158

Post by Hypx »

ogre_codes wrote: post #156
erik_seaberg wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Charging speed is preventing a lot of people from operating EVs, because there is no charger where we park overnight.

A fair enough statement. A bit of an electric divide. I'll put it a bit differently though. Setting aside environmental concerns, why would you buy a hydrogen car as opposed to a regular old gasoline car? Charging from home is a substantial benefit of EVs, performance is another. The Mirai is neither a particularly performant car, nor can you charge from home. Why would you switch to a car with a non-existent fuel ne…

Eventually, you want the ownership experience of the gasoline car without the emissions. So much of the argument against them are short-term only. You have to assume there will be fuel cell cars that are fast and desirable as the technology improves.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#159

Post by Hypx »

kungito wrote: post #126
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will a…

Only recently (I guess 10 years) have we started seeing serious billions poured into this research. The battery tech is improving so fast we might see some serious breakthroughs in the next 10 years regarding materials used and energy density. It's really too soon to say something isn't possible in this landscape

The breakthrough might just be hydrogen fuel cells getting efficient enough that it's no longer an issue.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#160

Post by Hypx »

ogre_codes wrote: post #153
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will a…

Electric cars are going to slaughter hydrogen for one simple reason. Once people get used to the convenience of their car getting filled up every night when they are at home, they will never go back. There may be a parallel H2 network for industrial vehicles of some kinds. But the vast majority of personal use is going to be electric.

You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.
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