Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#91

Post by camjohnson26 » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:49 AM UTC

aerovistae wrote: post #40

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

That far into the future cars will most likely be autonomous. there isn't really any point to speculating that far out, who knows what could happen. Look at 2020....

Self driving cars are today’s flying cars, always 5 years away.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#92

Post by Qwertious » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:49 AM UTC

throwawaysea wrote: post #83

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

Car and Driver found that their Model 3 lost 7% of its battery life in just 24K miles: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-ba...

More specifically, the first 7% of its battery life. Generally the first bit of battery life drops the fastest.

That definitely sounds possible, but it's just an anecdote and not data.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#93

Post by camjohnson26 » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:50 AM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #14

If this strikes you as a lot of money, consider that the big three cloud operators are spending one hundred billion per year on capital.

It’s also more than half Ford’s market cap

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#94

Post by Qwertious » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:51 AM UTC

HenryKissinger wrote: post #48

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary peo…

>In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time.

Just so we're clear: You're saying that ordinary peoples' ability in popular fantasies has some bearing on real world expectations?

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#95

Post by ogre_codes » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:52 AM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #88

ogre_codes wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get…

> Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.

GM is ... selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy. They are not selling a $25k car. The fact that they can still collect the subsidy is a sign of how bad they've done in this market.

I'm not sure why the Bolt isn't more popular for the money. Well aside from the fact that it's ugly.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#96

Post by rswail » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:53 AM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #75

chii wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.

Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying ca…

Bleed market share to who? Tesla? Tesla has a 3 model line up, with announcements of a truck and a prime mover.

There are battery manufacturers ramping up besides the Tesla/Panasonic alliance, including companies like BYD that Warren Buffet invested in back in 2008.

All of the auto industry (or more likely, the overall "mobility" industry as MaaS starts to make inroads) is on a 5-10 year hockey stick.

Everyone is going to be scrambling.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#97

Post by camjohnson26 » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 6:56 AM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #4

EVs make sense but at this point self driving cars are fantasy vaporware. Executives should be tired of embarrassing themselves in public with grand pronouncements of “just 6 more months!” by this point.

I’m old enough to remember 2016 when FSD was still 6 months away. Waymo was started 12 years ago and still can only operate in a small geomapped area with expensive hardware. Tesla’s offering would still kill you if you let it drive start to finish with no intervention. Still not sure how they get away with calling it Full Self Driving when it requires driver supervision.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#98

Post by rswail » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 7:00 AM UTC

HenryKissinger wrote: post #48

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary peo…

Most of the parts on an electric car are the same as an ICE car, except that there's a lot less in the drivetrain. So the suspension is the same, the trim and things like lights etc.

What's different is basically the battery pack, which is "unrepairable" without disassembly and the electric motors and regenerative braking.

There's a lot less to fix on an EV. Which is going to put dealerships out of business, because that's their purpose.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#99

Post by petre » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 7:04 AM UTC

nickik wrote: post #29

cookiengineer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This so much sounds like all the PR stunt cars that renault put out. You literally have to lease a battery on top of the absurd prices, and you cannot get it changed for free, even when you lease it. Which makes all their cars basically useless after a year of usage, because the batteries are embedded in their chassis. Every time I compare European manufacturers to Tesla and Nissan, they are such a bad joke. Nissan h…

What are you even talking about. Nissan sales have collapsed, the Leaf went from one of the most sold cars to small program and is being discontinued in many places. Nissan has the Ariya coming out but not much beyond, their announced targets for electrification are embracingly bad compared to basically every other auto-maker. VWG and Renault are outselling Nissan by 2-3x in terms of BEV. And you don't have to lease…

That's because they have screwed Ghosn over tax fraud. The man had vision and was relentless in making Renault Nissan a top auto company by volume and revenue. The current management lacks his vision and determination. Now VWG has caught up and Nissan was left with the "more expensive Renault" reputation. Just look at the Leaf's interior, it fully resembles a nicer Renault. The lease was a well intended move, however it was not well received by consumers and negated by envirinmental bonuses.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#100

Post by rswail » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 7:04 AM UTC

nickik wrote: post #20

pmorici wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.

There are so many more issues. They have lots of plants that Tesla doesn't need or want. Even worse, you can't close down those plants because of unions and politics. Tesla doesn't want unions in general. Battery being the limiting factor means that having more ability to produce cars is basically useless.

The fact that "Tesla doesn't want unions in general" is a sad anti-pattern.

Unions are the way that labor negotiates with capital on an equal basis.

The fact that the US has a badly flawed labor market where things that shouldn't be tied to employment (eg healthcare, pensions/retirement) are still tied to employment, is a bug, not a feature.

Tesla will not be able to avoid "unions" if they manufacture in Europe. Neither will they be able to avoid standard employer contributions in the form of taxation and employment benefits, like minimum paid vacation and sick leave, etc.