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Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#41

Post by nickik »

justapassenger wrote: post #31
nickik wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you even talking about. Nissan sales have collapsed, the Leaf went from one of the most sold cars to small program and is being discontinued in many places. Nissan has the Ariya coming out but not much beyond, their announced targets for electrification are embracingly bad compared to basically every other auto-maker. VWG and Renault are outselling Nissan by 2-3x in terms of BEV. And you don't have to lease…

Tesla’s are famous for not being repairable by 3rd party shops. You lack documentation, software, getting parts is PITA, and Tesla will happily disable features in your car, if you repaired it in a way they don’t agree with (like disabling supercharging on salvaged cars).

That is about business model, not about the car. Saying the car is not made for repairs is inaccurate.

And for a lot of repairs the Tesla model is actually great, the mobile service will go to where your car is and fix most things.

The problem of time is usually when have a crash and need body repair.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#42

Post by axaxs »

InTheArena wrote: post #3

The patterns only going to become more pronounced from here on out. My guess is that we’re going to See a electric bulbs style phase out of gasoline engines announced over the next two years. If I’m Ford or GM I’m gonna try and get my hands on some of that sweet sweet tesla speculation cash in the form of a buy out as quickly as possible. Solves the technology platform problems too. If VW couldn’t handle it, why do y…

I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago.

I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#43

Post by acover »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

I'm not an expert but there is data for your question. They don't have 0 value. Tesla's usually still have above 90% capacity at 250,000 km [0]. That's still a usable car. Further tesla has stated old car batteries are still useful for grid electricity.

[0] https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#44

Post by e_y_ »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

EV batteries don't instantly die. After ten years, it'll probably be down 10-20% of its original capacity, which is still drivable but might not work for everyone's commute. In that case, the battery can be potentially refurbished or repurposed for energy storage.

Cars, not just electric ones, have gotten more complex and have software that may need special equipment to diagnose. EVs are simpler and more robust in a number of ways, and might eventually be cheaper to maintain than gas cars once there's enough of them on the road.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#45

Post by totalZero »

friedman23 wrote: post #25
pmorici wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.

This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).

If there is a cash takeout, the IV will go down. If there is a share component to a hypothetical acquisition, the IV will potentially increase. However, I'm not sure how likely that is. Just be aware that your Vega p&l could be negative, so extremely long dated calls with a lot of Vega may need a big gap between a cash takeout price and spot in order to be profitable.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#46

Post by [deleted] »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

[deleted]

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#47

Post by pmorici »

alphabettsy wrote: post #24
reissbaker wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alright, so then $43k to compete, given typical Elon Musk numbers. Still a hard bar!

Not sure how you figure. The one that will actually be available at launch and I’m guessing most people will buy, with AWD, is $50k.

Can you cite any car company that makes the cheapest version of a product available before the more expensive one? It makes good business sense to start with the more profitable model I’m not sure why you bring this up as if it is bad.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#48

Post by HenryKissinger »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right?

People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time. The same thing will happen (will have to happen) in reality if we're going to have a futuristic society.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#49

Post by ogre_codes »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

EV batteries degrade over time, they generally don't just die. There are some batteries which have 300,000 miles on them. Not sure how they degrade over time without as much driving.

Right now, replacing a Tesla battery pack is $16,000. That puts a pretty hard bottom on the resale value of old cars.

It's really hard to say what the market will look like for older EVs. Battery prices come down every year so it feels like in 10 years the $16k battery pack will be a lot less expensive. You might be able to pick up an older Tesla with a run down battery that has really shitty range.

It's hard to say, for the moment cheap used EVs are mostly LEAFs. Used Teslas, even older ones tend to be pricey.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#50

Post by [deleted] »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

[deleted]
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