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AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

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Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#281

Post by Aunche »

ditonal wrote: post #212
dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

Conspiracies happen so frequently on Wall St that “conspiracy theories” should be closer to a priori assumption than irrational fringe ideas. Were people skeptical of Moodys A+ ratings of subprime mortgages conspiracy theorists? And that’s far from the only example of financial fraud . There’s a lot of money at stake. Citadel is most of Robinhoods revenue, they put money on the opposite side of the trade via Melvin,…

Nobody is saying that we should not be investigating Citadel or Robinhood or the hedge funds. The problem is that people are treating these conspiracy theories as facts and acting on this misinformation. Many people got duped into buying GME at a heavy loss. Others are going to abandon the stock market altogether because they think it's rigged.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#282

Post by dheera »

betterunix2 wrote: post #236
dheera wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pump and dump scheme I don't see why everyone is against pump and dump schemes yet the system is literally designed for them to happen. It's an inevitable fact that they will happen when you set up a free market and a bunch of (stupid) humans from the general public, as also clearly demonstrated in the crypto scene. If people don't want them to occur, the short-term incentives, market, and exchanges themselves need…

First of all, there is no such thing as a free market, certainly not in the capital markets. There are mountains of regulations covering stock, options, futures, and debt trades. Trading is routinely halted on various securities in extreme circumstances. Insider trading is restricted, and the restrictions become more significant for higher level management. Companies are required to report certain information to the…

I guess my main question is, why does the stock price go up if mountains of people suddenly buy a stock?

It's because we base pricing based on a simple free market order book algorithm.

If the markets enforced a pricing algorithm that included certain time-based functions instead of basing it purely out of the order book, and mandate that all transactions happen at the algorithm's determined price (instead of the free market price), a lot of problems including pump-and-dump schemes and insider trading could be theoretically eliminated. We could completely legalize insider trading, for example, if we technologically mandated that large orders took weeks to execute while single shares traded in milliseconds.

(I'm an engineer, not a financial expert; I view this problem as very similar to e.g. API limits and firewalls that implement rules to prevent abuse.)

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#283

Post by PartiallyTyped »

yibg wrote: post #280
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The lesson here is 1) figure out the memestocks before they become memes, 2) buy low and depending on memefication potential sell high. At some point I was > 1200% with GME, but, I got greedy. I could have made bank in nearly every swing but hindsight is 20/20. The goal is to outpace the market even with small amounts while investing most of the portfolio at safer stocks/long term plays. Ended up my GME s…

I don't see how those lessons are actionable? I mean yes to make money in stock picking all you have to do is buy low and sell high. Question is can you do that consistently enough to make a better return than index funds?

As long as it averages out you are fine. I was in GME at 33ish. I was also at 17 and I was impatient (and I really didn't know what the heck I was doing then, too impatient, not that I do know now..).

I am not suggesting to do that instead of index funds, I suggest doing both, throwing a small portion of your portfolio in meme stocks before they gain traction, this is where sentiment analysis comes in, can yield very good results. As long as you get out fast enough.

By fast enough, I do not suggest chasing old returns, that is, returns like TSLA/GME. You only need to outrun the market at that particular day, do it often enough whilst throwing profits in index funds and you are getting ahead.

I am willing to bet (hah), and I will try to verify (at least in virtual) that after GME, sentiment analysis on WSB, r/stocks, r/investing and news can provide good enough yields by exploiting people's FOMO, in particular the chase for TLSA/GME returns and the belief that we are in control. The goal is to track potential trends in WSB, observe them getting traction in r/stocks and r/investing, and once they are mentioned on the news to start getting out.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#284

Post by cperciva »

vimy wrote: post #199
cperciva wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think DeepFuckingValue is smarter than you give him credit for. It's worth leaving $20M on the table if it lets you tell the SEC "look, I'm clearly an idiot, there's no way I could have been deliberately engineering a pump and dump scheme". Better to take $15M of profit than to gamble $35M on the SEC deciding not to prosecute.

The SEC doesn’t have a case. He’s been holding for 2 years and was laughed at many times by people on the wallstreetbets sub.

The SEC wouldn't be prosecuting him for holding GME. They would be prosecuting him for pumping up the stock price.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#285

Post by rstupek »

ASalazarMX wrote: post #142
dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

> I think HN likes to believe it is evidence based and rational instead of emotional and greedy. Rational and evidence driven? Did HN became a scientific forum while I wasn't looking? This is a social network, which makes it opinion driven. Rationality and evidence are important, but they come second. Hell, some of us don't even read articles before opining.

Most of us don't even read the articles. Usually the discussions are more informative

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#286

Post by yibg »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #283
yibg wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how those lessons are actionable? I mean yes to make money in stock picking all you have to do is buy low and sell high. Question is can you do that consistently enough to make a better return than index funds?

As long as it averages out you are fine. I was in GME at 33ish. I was also at 17 and I was impatient (and I really didn't know what the heck I was doing then, too impatient, not that I do know now..). I am not suggesting to do that instead of index funds, I suggest doing both, throwing a small portion of your portfolio in meme stocks before they gain traction, this is where sentiment analysis comes in, can yield very…

Problem with TSLA and GME is they are only meme stocks in hindsight. You may have gotten lucky on those and gotten in early enough, but that’s not a strategy.

Hypothetically let’s say analyzing sentiment on some narrow range of data like WSB reliably produced outsized returns, that will very quickly self correct as people catch on.

I suppose if you are the only one that has the secret sauce then sure. But if that’s the case you probably should’ve be posting it here.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#287

Post by vimy »

cperciva wrote: post #284
vimy wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SEC doesn’t have a case. He’s been holding for 2 years and was laughed at many times by people on the wallstreetbets sub.

The SEC wouldn't be prosecuting him for holding GME. They would be prosecuting him for pumping up the stock price.

My point is that the sub didn't take him and GME seriously until December or something. You can't be a laughing stock and a pump and dump mastermind at the same time.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#288

Post by dr-detroit »

dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

Its called live action roleplaying and its the new popular lifestyle these days

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#289

Post by NoOneNew »

arminiusreturns wrote: post #169
z9e wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I struggle to see the political claim that these people are being flooded with Trumpers. This event was and has been pretty bipartisan. From what I’ve seen thus far is the media trying to use the Q / Trumper angle against this community to tarnish its public perception and recent novelty. I am happy to be proven wrong though, I just don’t see it.

While gp is right about the influx of users (Ive only been around wsb for 4 years or so), which I will address later, I agree with you on the tarnishing tactic being used. What I saw was very open "fuck the big money people" that transcended party lines, often explicitly. That said, there are sure to be a large portion of "the right", on the sub, as the fact of the matter is that a significant percentage of the US is…

Aren't "the right" typically pro big business people? That's been the big joke. Trailer park white trash right wingers defending big business. Why would you assume they're all right wingers when they're all "fuck the big money people". Aren't leftists the first ones to say, "fuck the big money people"?

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#290

Post by PartiallyTyped »

yibg wrote: post #286
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as it averages out you are fine. I was in GME at 33ish. I was also at 17 and I was impatient (and I really didn't know what the heck I was doing then, too impatient, not that I do know now..). I am not suggesting to do that instead of index funds, I suggest doing both, throwing a small portion of your portfolio in meme stocks before they gain traction, this is where sentiment analysis comes in, can yield very…

Problem with TSLA and GME is they are only meme stocks in hindsight. You may have gotten lucky on those and gotten in early enough, but that’s not a strategy. Hypothetically let’s say analyzing sentiment on some narrow range of data like WSB reliably produced outsized returns, that will very quickly self correct as people catch on. I suppose if you are the only one that has the secret sauce then sure. But if that’s t…

> Hypothetically let’s say analyzing sentiment on some narrow range of data like WSB reliably produced outsized returns, that will very quickly self correct as people catch on.

Any advantage is neutralized only if/when it becomes public knowledge. I am certainly not the first that came to this hypothesis, and I won't be the last. I need only to stay ahead of the curve.

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