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AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

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Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#191

Post by jimbokun »

nytesky wrote: post #175
toolz wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that most people don't realize they are always betting. Keeping your wealth tucked under your mattress in USD is still a bet. Everything is a bet and everything has different risk profiles. If someone sees that shorts in GME are over leveraged, well in hindsight they were absolutely right to buy in to this "gambling". I find the most irrational actors with regards to investing are the people who only do "safe"…

I remember for me during 2008 I finally understood how NOTHING has intrinsic value, it’s always about what others perceive in the market. Real estate, dollars, gold, stock all arbitrary in a way I never considered. All built on sand.

With real estate, you may have a place to sleep even if it's market value goes to 0.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#192

Post by ssully »

franl wrote: post #157
nprz wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means a ton of people are losing the life savings they dumped into this out of excitement as it crashed back down Can you provide a single case of someone losing their entire life savings by YOLOing it on GME at the top?

Assuming this person is legit (which is a huge assumption given it’s a stranger on Twitter), they appear to have sunk 90% of their worth into AMC: https://twitter.com/23michaeljam/status/1356785696959209472?...

The thing that kills me is the handful of responses of people defending it by basically saying "people will go to the movies after covid", without the context of where AMC was at before covid. Even during it's best years, AMC wasn't worth what people think it will be. It's just a complete lack of reasoning.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#193

Post by fbelzile »

toolz wrote: post #144
dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

I find that most people don't realize they are always betting. Keeping your wealth tucked under your mattress in USD is still a bet. Everything is a bet and everything has different risk profiles. If someone sees that shorts in GME are over leveraged, well in hindsight they were absolutely right to buy in to this "gambling". I find the most irrational actors with regards to investing are the people who only do "safe"…

This was me. I lost money on GME betting on the fact that more shorted shares still had to be covered.

The short squeeze wasn't a complete failure. It happened, it was just much smaller than many predicted. I still wonder what would've happened if Robinhood didn't shut off demand by preventing people from buying shares. My investment thesis didn't foresee this happening. I don't think anyone did.

The other large part of the problem was that a lot of people, including myself, were going off of stale short interest data. Updated estimates for GME were reported to be 39% of float vs +100% on 1 Feb [1]. Hedge funds pay for more accurate data which us retail investors don't get visibility on.

It's over for now, but please bear this in mind when talking to people that may have lost money on this. Some people did some research, knew the risk and allocated money they were willing to lose. I learned a lot along the way, it might make some hedge funds think twice about aggressively shorting a stock, and it was just plain fun to be part of it.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/gamestop-...

Edit: updated short interest data stats and link.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#194

Post by majormajor »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #187
majormajor wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before it was February 9 it was last Friday... ;) > Taking into account that shorting costs money, people can hold longer than shorts. And buying them would make the available pool to buy back much smaller. The volume being traded has been incredibly high, the available pool to buy hasn't been small. More than the total number of outstanding shares has traded per day over the last 10 days. https://finance.yahoo.com/q…

It was always 9 february to me: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=shortintpubsch ( see Dissemination date) That's an official date to release short interest. And I don't disagree with feeling good with shorting at 300-400. But none of the info you just gave me invalidates my reasoning. Considering there were 139% shorts which is way higher than the normally available pool, which we'll see on the 9th February…

Not even the lack of people holding? Tons of people were selling throughout the 1/29 settlement date for that short interest, there wasn't an unavailability of shares. If you weren't one of the people selling then, I'm not seeing what would make it better in the future.

edit: we may be talking about different things here. You're suggesting that if there are still funds very exposed on shorts in the info disclosed 2/9, then there's a potential for trying to make the stock rally again later this month? Vs that anything is already due this month? (I'm just skeptical still because the turnover is so high - I doubt the remaining interest has as high exposure cause I would guess they got in at higher prices.)

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#195

Post by [deleted] »

belltaco wrote: post #127
dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

Also encountered a few QAnon believers here back in the day which completely surprised me.

[deleted]

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#196

Post by JumpCrisscross »

donarb wrote: post #73
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, who was holding GME, is one of the largest hedge funds in existence, worth over 200 billion dollars OTPP is a pension fund. Hedge funds are a different beast.

They may be a pension fund, but they do use hedge funds to balance their portfolio. https://www.otpp.com/investments/performance/investment-stra... "Additionally, we complement our efforts by using external hedge fund managers, which gives us access to unique approaches that both add performance and diversify risk."

> they do use hedge funds to balance their portfolio

OTPP invest in hedge funds. But they aren't one themselves. Hedge funds are a specific creature. Legally. And in terms of how they trade.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#197

Post by optimalsolver »

nprz wrote: post #188
kortilla wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here is a truism for you all: In any casino Wall Street is not a casino in this regard. There is no “house edge”.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest the group with teams of PhDs writing high frequency trading algorithms might have an advantage over a dude with a Robinhood account.

That just means they get to make bad decisions faster.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#198

Post by randomdata »

handmodel wrote: post #167
randomdata wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depending on how you think the fund should be divided for wealth purposes, if we assume an equal division, the fund alone puts many Ontario teachers into the top 1%. Never mind what other wealth they may have. They are the 1% you are talking about. I expect what you're really saying is that the political opposition opposes strangers who are perceived as being different, whereas the top 1% comprised of teachers are re…

No - this isn't close to true. I'm saying (at least in the US) you need a net-worth of 10M to be in the top 1%. Or, in terms of income, make 500k a year household income. The Ontario Teacher's Pension Fund averages member 600k per member in assets (200B divided by 330k members). I don't know the Canadian stats but having around 1M in assets as a 60 year old places them around the top 20% or 10% cut-off - not the top…

> it is clear that occupy Wall Street was a movement against the perceived notion that billionaires were exploiting the rules

That we agree on. Just like the OTPP has been known to do.

https://financialpost.com/news/fp-street/ontario-teachers-pe...

This isn't some teachers trying to eek out a retirement. It is one of the most prolific hedge funds in existence. They are literally what the movement was against, but the movement only served to help them.

Not that I expect anyone thought that they were buying up shares from retail investors to put the movement in motion. They had to know they would help other funds to hurt the one fund being targeted. It shouldn't surprise anyone that hedge funds have made out like bandits in this.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#199

Post by vimy »

cperciva wrote: post #110
notyourday wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are plenty of "Average people" that entered near the top, and since not everyone can sell simultaneously, that means a ton of people are losing the life savings they dumped into this out of excitement as it crashed back down. Most of "average people" entered at or near the top. The ones that did not were so engaged in gambling that they did not sell when it did 20x return. Call it what it is: fear of missing…

I think DeepFuckingValue is smarter than you give him credit for. It's worth leaving $20M on the table if it lets you tell the SEC "look, I'm clearly an idiot, there's no way I could have been deliberately engineering a pump and dump scheme". Better to take $15M of profit than to gamble $35M on the SEC deciding not to prosecute.

The SEC doesn’t have a case. He’s been holding for 2 years and was laughed at many times by people on the wallstreetbets sub.

Re: AMC, GameStop Give Hedge Fund Mudrick Capital $200M in Gains

#200

Post by wayoutthere »

dougmwne wrote: post #85

Watching HN get caught up in this Gamestop bubble over the past week has been eye-opening to me about the community. The kind of information being spread around WSB was fully ridiculous. Wild conspiracy theories, financial advice with no basis in reality, astroturfing, and mob behavior. There has been an incredible amount of bleed-over between the garbage I've seen posted on WSB and the things posted in these HN thre…

Anyone who takes WSB seriously is dumb and deserves to lose their money. The sub is explicitly about using the stock market like a casino to gamble. Loss porn is real and we’re going to see a lot of it soon. To continue the casino analogy, /u/DeepFuckingValue is the dude at the craps table with the hot hand. Everyone is onboard until the winning stops, so the house is doing everything it can to reset the game.
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