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How to Lose Money

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Re: How to Lose Money

#241

Post by m463 »

DC1350 wrote: post #169

> Do things because you have genuine interest in them... Don’t start out with a singular goal of making money. I really hate advice like this. Have you ever seen a business before? Have you ever met a person? Pretty much no interests are monetizable and almost all companies are doing really boring work. I don’t believe anyone in the world is truly passionate about things like payroll software. If I followed my intere…

I think a lot of people are quite successful in the middle somewhere - doing something they like (or at least don't hate) - for someone else.

It helps to learn what you like and don't like early, say while your parents are paying the bills.

Re: How to Lose Money

#244

Post by mumblemumble »

vinceguidry wrote: post #227
Noos wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people trying to do this will make little or no money, and the sheer amount of competition and effort required to be the maybe 10% of the top people who can make a living on it is too much for most. And there are less and less structures in place to protect or mitigate risk for them; all Youtube has to do is change an algorithm or demonetize/ban you to tank your streaming business. And the base assumption now fo…

This has always been true. It's just less true now.

I'm guessing it's a blip in history, not a trend.

What we're seeing is a first cohort of people who get in and build their careers while the niche is still young, and before everyone knows about it. Then there's a much larger cohort of second movers who see the work as aspirational and want to get into it. They have a much more difficult path to success. They have to compete with each other, and with the established players, for a piece of a pie that is no longer growing. Very few end up succeeding.

Jobs where I've previously seen this happen include lawyer, craft brewer, restaurantier, data scientist, academic, airline pilot, and games developer. I'm not sure I see any particular reason to think that it will be different for professional gaming.

Re: How to Lose Money

#245

Post by Strom »

DC1350 wrote: post #233
nlh wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t believe anyone in the world is truly passionate about things like payroll software. I actually think that’s probably not a good assumption. I know you’re being pejorative, but imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades. People learn the market and get sick of the status quo and…

I’m sorry but I still don’t agree > imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades These people hate their jobs and only do it for money. No reasonable person would ever do this for fun. Creating new payroll software is just a means to an end that you have to slog through to deal with the int…

Do you have a list of interests that a reasonable person likes?

Based on my experiences people love wildly different things. I've met plenty of people loving things that I would avoid at almost any cost.

I would guess that your view of a reasonable person is what you see in the mirror. It's not even clear to me why payroll software is so bad. It's not what I spend time on, but it seems like something plenty of engineers would like because the requirements are pretty clear and stable.

Re: How to Lose Money

#246

Post by nlh »

DC1350 wrote: post #233
nlh wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t believe anyone in the world is truly passionate about things like payroll software. I actually think that’s probably not a good assumption. I know you’re being pejorative, but imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades. People learn the market and get sick of the status quo and…

I’m sorry but I still don’t agree > imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades These people hate their jobs and only do it for money. No reasonable person would ever do this for fun. Creating new payroll software is just a means to an end that you have to slog through to deal with the int…

I'm sorry but this is just not true. I understand this is your perspective but "these people hate their jobs and only do it for money" is impossibly wrong. Sure, some people hate their jobs, but they're probably not the ones who are thinking about ways to make their jobs more efficient and almost certainly aren't the ones who are going and launching new companies.

I've seen a lot of entrepreneurs start a lot of companies (and started several myself). Many of which you'd think were "boring" -- log aggregation, devops metrics, auto parts retailing, CRM.

I can assure you that in every single case, the founders were truly passionate about the problems they set out to solve.

Re: How to Lose Money

#247

Post by nlitened »

DC1350 wrote: post #233
nlh wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t believe anyone in the world is truly passionate about things like payroll software. I actually think that’s probably not a good assumption. I know you’re being pejorative, but imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades. People learn the market and get sick of the status quo and…

I’m sorry but I still don’t agree > imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades These people hate their jobs and only do it for money. No reasonable person would ever do this for fun. Creating new payroll software is just a means to an end that you have to slog through to deal with the int…

That’s an opinion that could make the bearer pretty miserable in life.

I am an entrepreneur, and I make software in fields that you’d find super niche and dull, yet I am pretty excited about making quality software, making clients happy, and building a team that I can rely on in delivering our services.

Re: How to Lose Money

#248

Post by coryfklein »

caffeine wrote: post #168
smiley1437 wrote: post #136

Options are effectively Zero Sum - meaning that whoever is on the other side of the contract is predicting the opposite of whatever you're thinking. Successful long-term options traders don't trade options 'directionally' (like buying 50K of GME calls), they manage a whole portfolio of options, and then take directional portfolio risk. This is sort of like diversifying, then running risk analysis, then figuring out w…

Sorry but this comment is full of misinformation. > whoever is on the other side of the contract is predicting the opposite of whatever you're thinking. If you are a retail options trader, the person on the other side is a professional market maker who doesn't have a "prediction" the way you'd think about it. He made his money at the moment you did the trade, because you traded at a disadvantage relative to the fair…

Love this comment, it is the epitome of Hacker News. It points out all the ways the OP is wrong, while simultaneously confirming the OP's point in the first place: don't be a retail trader because you're not properly equipped.

For myself, as soon as I realized that retail trading doesn't make much sense, I personally haven't bothered learning an exactly specific mental model of why. You almost need to be a professional finance person to even understand the specifics here. For now my model is: "making money in derivatives markets is really complicated and hedge funds invest large sums to counter this risk, so unless you're willing and able to match their investment you're unlikely to see their returns."

Re: How to Lose Money

#249

Post by DC1350 »

nlh wrote: post #246
DC1350 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sorry but I still don’t agree > imagine a scenario where someone has been working for years as a payroll administrator or someone who’s been a consultant working on implementing payroll systems for decades These people hate their jobs and only do it for money. No reasonable person would ever do this for fun. Creating new payroll software is just a means to an end that you have to slog through to deal with the int…

I'm sorry but this is just not true. I understand this is your perspective but "these people hate their jobs and only do it for money" is impossibly wrong. Sure, some people hate their jobs, but they're probably not the ones who are thinking about ways to make their jobs more efficient and almost certainly aren't the ones who are going and launching new companies. I've seen a lot of entrepreneurs start a lot of compa…

A payroll administrator does not like their job and does enjoy solving their employer’s problems. This is so obvious that I feel like you’re trolling. I’m done talking to you.

Re: How to Lose Money

#250

Post by mrow84 »

zuhayeer wrote: post #9

School is such a guaranteed one now during Covid – you don't even get social serendipity. You're literally sitting there on Zoom burning through cash. What common folk don't realize is that college is just a luxury consumption good of the rich.

Degrees, etc., are better described as positional goods [0], than as more basic luxury goods, but you are right that that largely leaves them as the preserve of the rich (in places where financing is required). I would highly recommend "The Social Limits to Growth" by Fred Hirsch (linked in that page), on the subject.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positional_good

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