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How to Lose Money

getrevue.co

171–180 of 300 posts

Re: How to Lose Money

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you arrive at $100-$300/day?

My conversion rate is right at 1%. Product is $25. I think I can realistically drive 400-1200 visitors a day to the site with some focused SEO work.

I see. Still relying on some assumptions at this point. Keep us posted. Best of luck.

Re: How to Lose Money

#172
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can write spreads and not have infinite downside risk. Iron condors are designed to collect premium and you’re covered (at a loss, but a fixed loss) if the stock goes one way or another too far. Of course at that point we are already more advanced than a YOLO casino roller. But yes, in general it’s wise to avoid bets with infinite downside and limited upside. You tend to win these bets frequently (and make small…

I would like to add that even with a spread you can bankrupt yourself if you are assigned to one side of the leg on expiration day after hours, stock moves against you, you aren't notified in time and therefore can't exercise the other leg. It's rare but not that rare.

Can the losses exceed the total account equity, with recourse?

Re: How to Lose Money

#173

The "fastest" way of losing money - which the author says is trading options, is naive. Even with a margin account, your purchasing power is 4:1, at best! Now - if you have _enough_ money, you can write uncovered(aka 'naked') option contracts and open the possibility of unlimited losses at least, but that won't afford you any more leverage. IMHO...that "fastest" method to lose money(in the markets) is the commodity f…

>Even with a margin account, your purchasing power is 4:1, at best! [...] IMHO...that "fastest" method to lose money(in the markets) is the commodity futures market. You get 200:1 leverage there

Shouldn't margin be weighted against volatility? Part of the reason why they give you that much margin in the first place is that commodities are presumably less volatile.

Re: How to Lose Money

#174

Or you can think for yourself and lose money too. I thought I was very smart and did a DCF analysis of TSLA for myself. Looked into the assumptions, and convinced myself that even in the most bullish case, the revenues and profits generated by TSLA would not justify a valuation above 500B dollars. I have now lost about the price of a TSLA Model S on paper, and still have not closed out my TSLA short. I should have ju…

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and all that. Read/watch The Big Short if you haven't. (Most/all? of the people in the movie made out but almost didn't.)

Re: How to Lose Money

#175
post #146

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> Yes and no. A Comp Sci./Eng. degree is pretty much guaranteed to get you a decently paying job. This is not true in a lot of countries according to my experience. I would not suggest this path for anyone that might start college in a couple of years. Unless you manage to get into a big company you'll probably find it easier to get a job and a good salary in many other sectors. I know pre-school teachers that had a…

Which country has pre-school teachers making more than software engineers? (I'm curious!)

In this case it was Sweden. Now, you could argue that the max salary for a developer is higher, but only if you get into a good company. Most devs get stuck at around $4k to $5.5k per month from what I know.

Re: How to Lose Money

#176
post #108

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>Learning a 3-5 yr curriculum You don't need that to find a decent job. Most developer/programmer jobs have very little to do with comp. sci (which is math) and a lot more with practical application of few select skills.

You often need core computer science skills for the interviewing game.

If you mean datastructures and algorithms - I'd still not qualify them as 3-5y course.

Re: How to Lose Money

#177

Or you can think for yourself and lose money too. I thought I was very smart and did a DCF analysis of TSLA for myself. Looked into the assumptions, and convinced myself that even in the most bullish case, the revenues and profits generated by TSLA would not justify a valuation above 500B dollars. I have now lost about the price of a TSLA Model S on paper, and still have not closed out my TSLA short. I should have ju…

I think your mistake wasn't doing the DCF and putting on the position, that is a reasonable move (short interest in TSLA has been huge, a lot of funds thought the same as you ). Your mistake was bad position management once you had it on the wrong way.

I don't know what % of your stack you had on that bet, but if it's money your wife would get mad about it's too much. Definitely don't want more than 2-5% of your chips on a flyer like that.

I'd say keep trying to make smart bets, but cut the size down and do more of them, and take them off if they are bleeding.

Re: How to Lose Money

#178

Or you can think for yourself and lose money too. I thought I was very smart and did a DCF analysis of TSLA for myself. Looked into the assumptions, and convinced myself that even in the most bullish case, the revenues and profits generated by TSLA would not justify a valuation above 500B dollars. I have now lost about the price of a TSLA Model S on paper, and still have not closed out my TSLA short. I should have ju…

One of the harshest lessons people who aren't already in the financial industry learned this past year is the financial markets don't have to be tied to reality, like, at all. Companies don't have to be providing the value that justifies their stock price (TSLA, even Elon thinks it got too high), companies in dying markets can become wildly profitable investments because a bunch of people collectively decided to throw money at it (GME, AMC, BB, BBY, etc), the stock market as a whole can soar while the lower and middle class are facing the worse crisis they've ever faced, etc.

Only thing that is making sense (to me, at least), is crypto's recovery. It's 2+ year bear run didn't make any sense to me. Glad to see it roaring back.

Re: How to Lose Money

#179
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> E.g. If I am net long in my portfolio and I fear some headwinds I can buy a put or two for the peace of mind. Now those puts should be always considered as worthless, and it is just the price to pay for the peace of mind. Why don't you just change your allocation? If you can't sleep at night because of your current portfolio, and gyrations that are occurring, or that you are worried could occur, I would say it's ob…

Year ago when we were reading the news about what is happening in Wuhan, some of my friends bought SPY puts as an insurance against the potential crisis. The best outcome for them would be if those puts expired worthless. When you insure your house, you don't usually wish for it to burn down. I haven't acted and my portfolio took a -30% hit right after. Your suggestion (to change the portfolio allocation) would mean…

> Your suggestion (to change the portfolio allocation) would mean temporarily selling stocks and holding money.

Or bonds:

* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/08/why-would-anyone-ow...

Rebalancing is a thing, though generally for risk reasons. It would/could have saved one's returns during the so-called Lost Decade of the 2000s with the S&P 500:

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2010/12/17/the-lost-de...

As your equities dropped, there's a good chance bonds would have at least stayed neutral, or even risen: so you'd sell some of those (sell high) and pick up equities at a discount (buy low).

There are even products available that do this automatically for you:

* https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/lifestrategy/

Re: How to Lose Money

#180
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you value time.

If you enjoy writing a book why would you value your time?

"Enjoy" is a complex emotion in the context of writing an entire publishable book. Even if someone finds all the actual research and writing enjoyable, they probably don't love all the editing and copyediting and other mechanics all that fun.
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