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It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

blog.robinhood.com

361–370 of 445 posts

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why you're acting like this is just something that came out of the blue and hit RH without any possible warning. They purposefully courted new, low information traders and gamified trading. Even before GME you could find complaints and warnings about how Robinhood was gamifying trading. And now they're surprised that this results in new trader behavior? Come on. To complete the analogy, this is like deci…

Because that is basically what happened. There is a reason why WSB and GME have been in the news. It's because what happened is surprising. Sure, in hindsight, you can identify causes for the phenomenon. But if you rewind back to January 1, I don't think most of us would have predicted this at any level of certainty beyond a theoretical possibility. I agree with you that Robinhood did put itself at higher risk of thi…

For the record, back when I worked in finance I heard plenty of conversations about margin requirements going up, often forcing desks to liquidate positions that they otherwise wanted to keep. The idea that margin requirements might change is something finance has had to deal with for a very long time, and RH should have been prepared for the possibility. Better still, they should have had the controls in place to cool down the GME trade once it started to spiral, such as reducing the amount of leverage they let their customers have.

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#362

Real time equities settlement and clearing is a terrible idea. It sounds great. But it breaks a lot of good stuff. I'm surprised the CEO of a brokerage is advocating for it. (The article is a bit loose with the terms settlement and clearing. Again, surprising from the CEO of a company that almost got taken out by internal clearing failures.) If you only think about the American stock market from the perspective of a…

To build on this, I was wondering while reading the piece why is it we’re at T+2 today. It can’t just be from old standards when computers/networking was worse, otherwise we wouldn’t have only gone from T+3 to T+2. It would give them a lot more credibility in their argument if they illustrated the roadblocks, and why they’re not immutable.

Patrick Byrne probably? (before he went totally nuts)

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#363
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can take out a loan on an existing mortgaged asset after you built some equity into it, especially if the asset increased in price during that period. Is not a mortgage very similar to owning X% of a thing? Like, if I had a mortgage for $100,000 and I've paid $10,000 towards it, it's almost akin to owning 1/10 of the house (which would play out in the event of liquidation, all other things equal). That real est…

If you paid $10k toward a $100k asset, most of that $10k actually goes toward interest because of how the loan is setup. Islam never denies that time and money are related, it just places moral restrictions on how money can be used in society without exploitation.

I have some bad news for you if you think profit sharing is going to replace free cash flow as a metric for company expansion. What happens if there's no profit? Have you been watching that Khadim Hussain Rizvi video where he tells the Pakistan Army to just repay the IMF loans' principal?

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#364
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can take out a loan on an existing mortgaged asset after you built some equity into it, especially if the asset increased in price during that period. Is not a mortgage very similar to owning X% of a thing? Like, if I had a mortgage for $100,000 and I've paid $10,000 towards it, it's almost akin to owning 1/10 of the house (which would play out in the event of liquidation, all other things equal). That real est…

You sound like you're defining "development" when you talk about the difference between the future and present values of something. But I guess if the people actually doing the development pay interest to the people they got money from to do the development then it is... interest to some degree? Of course that results in less net development (due to the interest paid) but am I at least describing it in a way you reco…

This is basically the Islamic redefinition of interest.

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not at all how NBBO works. Effectively all retail brokers sell order flow and if they dont they still dont have any obligation to improve your price beyond NBBO.

> This is not at all how NBBO works Open to corrections > they still dont have any obligation to improve your price beyond NBBO But those that do price improvement use it as a marketing differentiator: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/tools-demos/trading... https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/online-trading/order... https://www.schwab.com/execution-quality https://www.tdameritrade.com/tools-and-platforms/…

> Open to corrections

Under the "Robinhood" header of this Matt Levine column is a pretty good explanation of payment for order flow:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-16/carl-i...

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Short squeezes are not good for the market, period This is an opinion. To briefly articulate some arguments that take the other side: Short squeezes are a disincentive for hedge funds to take undisclosed bearish positions in otherwise healthy companies, and for options dealers to sell cheap call options on those companies. They also increase equity value for shareholders. A squeeze can reduce the debt load for a co…

During a short squeeze, assets are "mispriced," and their prices have high volatility. Having a "correct" and "stable" price for assets is fundamentally important to any market as the market's intended purposes are to allow society to "efficiently" allocate capital and let participants hedge risk. "Wrong" and highly variable prices inhibit both goals. Of course short squeezes (like any asset mispricing) can be good f…

> During a short squeeze, assets are "mispriced"

If we are going to call exchange-traded equities "mispriced," then I think it's fair to say that the mispricing exists prior to a short squeeze, when the stock is compressed by the price impact of the short seller.

> their prices have high volatility.

Volatility is not necessarily bad for markets.

> Having a "correct" and "stable" price for assets is fundamentally important

Stable prices require sources of potential energy like highly levered shorts to be dispelled, which only happens when the short covers. Also, unless you can walk on water you're not in a position to tell the market that one price is "correct" and another is not. The price is the price.

> the market's intended purposes are to allow society to "efficiently" allocate capital and let participants hedge risk

The market's purpose is to connect buyers and sellers in a way that allows them to get the best price in the world for a particular security at a given time. It has nothing to do with allocating capital in society, nor is it a hedging vehicle.

> "Wrong" and highly variable prices inhibit both goals.

If the price is wrong, go sell it. Also, prices vary because market participants react to changes in information. If the information is hot -- such as the emergent fact that sizable investors have found themselves in a tenuous short position -- then the price action will likely be hot as well.

> Of course short squeezes (like any asset mispricing) can be good for individual market participants

You're shifting my diction. Squeezes are good for shareholders and good for the company. The only entity for whom they are categorically bad is the poor sap who is covering the stock.

> That's why regulators step in when assets are mispriced

Regulators don't decide what an equity's price should be. Market participants do. Regulators have manipulated asset prices in the past and generally it doesn't end well. As Grantham puts it [0]:

All bubbles end with near universal acceptance that the current one will not end yet…because. Because in 1929 the economy had clicked into “a permanently high plateau”; because Greenspan’s Fed in 2000 was predicting an enduring improvement in productivity and was pledging its loyalty (or moral hazard) to the stock market; because Bernanke believed in 2006 that “U.S. house prices merely reflect a strong U.S. economy” as he perpetuated the moral hazard: if you win you’re on your own, but if you lose you can count on our support. Yellen, and now Powell, maintained this approach. All three of Powell’s predecessors claimed that the asset prices they helped inflate in turn aided the economy through the wealth effect. Which effect we all admit is real. But all three avoided claiming credit for the ensuing market breaks that inevitably followed: the equity bust of 2000 and the housing bust of 2008, each replete with the accompanying anti-wealth effect that came when we least needed it, exaggerating the already guaranteed weakness in the economy. This game surely is the ultimate deal with the devil.

> prosecuted those who have intentionally created short squeezes.

Invariably, those who cause short squeezes are the people who get themselves into tenuous shorts that they cannot finance. I have heard of situations where the SEC went after "short and distort" schemes. I have never heard that investors got in trouble for buying stock because they reasonably believed it would go up and candidly shared their trade thesis with other market participants. The market wouldn't even have a way to discover short positions to target, because the regulators don't require them to be disclosed.

[0] https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/waiting-for-th...

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that is basically what happened. There is a reason why WSB and GME have been in the news. It's because what happened is surprising. Sure, in hindsight, you can identify causes for the phenomenon. But if you rewind back to January 1, I don't think most of us would have predicted this at any level of certainty beyond a theoretical possibility. I agree with you that Robinhood did put itself at higher risk of thi…

For the record, back when I worked in finance I heard plenty of conversations about margin requirements going up, often forcing desks to liquidate positions that they otherwise wanted to keep. The idea that margin requirements might change is something finance has had to deal with for a very long time, and RH should have been prepared for the possibility. Better still, they should have had the controls in place to co…

I don't know that it would be accurate to assume that Robinhood was not prepared for the possibility of their deposit requirements changing. I think it's more likely that they were unprepared for the magnitude of changes in a lot of their underlying assumptions. There were 600k downloads of their app on Friday alone, which is roughly 4x the previous daily high water mark, which itself was an anomaly. On top of that, most of those people are signing up to purchase shares in just a very small number of companies. I think there are very, very few businesses that are prepared for a black swan event of a magnitude that Robinhood experienced.

I am just responding to blaming them for not having enough cash on hand to meet the DTC's new deposit requirement, which did come out of the blue. You can say that Robinhood could have anticipated that at some point it may need to back up 100% of the activity of their customers with deposits, given that it is a possibility that is laid out in the DTC rules. But I don't think any brokerage is well-capitalized enough to handle that for every scenario.

But I understand that Robinhood has had other problems (reliability, customer support, etc.), and has also gamified stock trading in a way that is probably harmful. I am sympathetic to those criticisms.

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#368
These clowns can’t even prevent their customers from using infinite leverage. (See WSB leverage hacks.) Their CEO doesn’t even understand clearinghouse rules. (He said so on TV the other day.) They should STFU and not share their “thoughts” on market structure.

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the opposite. I believe that modern agriculture would collapse without short positions. I concede this is largely an act of faith on my part.

How so? Shorters push stock down, so how does it benefit the agriculture industry?

You want insurance in case your crop fails, who do you think is taking the other side of that bet for you?

Re: It’s Time for Real Time Settlement

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? Shorters push stock down, so how does it benefit the agriculture industry?

I answered in a sibling comment but don’t know the HN software enough to link.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26009042
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