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A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

wired.com

371–380 of 452 posts

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 1985 the USA had 21,000+ nuclear weapons, USSR 39,000+. This is one of the facts from this era which seems completely irrational to me. Considering the damage each one of these devices can do why do you need so many. Lets presume you're in fact a genocidal maniac (i didn't say the roleplaying would be difficult America) 1 bomb per enemy military installation and 1 bomb per population centre over 100k population…

For both sides, the most important job for the nukes was counter-force, that is, blowing up the enemy nukes. Both sides understood this, so they deployed their own nukes so sparsely that you generally need one to take out one, and since they still expected to lose a lot of them, they built spares.

to me, it was the invention of SLBMs that truly but the concept of a first-strike advantage to bed. With subs under the water in the world's oceans armed with dozes of missiles each armed with multiple warheads the concept of taking out your enemy before they can retaliate is gone.

IMO, if MAD fails it will be an accident that triggers a run away chain of events leading to nuclear war. We've come close many many times to total nuclear war due to miscommunication, simulation errors, procedural errors, etc.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#372

I’m reminded of a long bet made a number of years ago between Joseph Romm and Greg Blencoe that 1% of car sales in the US would be Hydrogen Fuel cell vehicles by 2015. I’d done a report on this in college and completely forgot about it, probably because hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are near impossible to find on the consumer market. So Blencoe lost the bet and paid Romm the $1000 and wore a T-shirt. He posted a very s…

A relevant long bet: https://longbets.org/601/

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#373
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any money is in selling bombs that are used , so you can sell more. Not much money in nukes, and you can very by stock exchange listings. This kind of conspiracy thinking utterly ignores the horrifying logic of MAD. Read a bit about Bernard Brodie, pre-eminent strategist, he laid it all out for why deterrence was sadly the only way to go and that we must live in a state of mutually assured destruction. https://en.m.w…

> Any money is in selling bombs that are used , so you can sell more. Not much money in nukes World nuclear arms spending hit $73bn last year – half of it by US. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/nuclear-weapon... "The U.S. government is now estimated to have 6,800 nuclear weapons at its disposal, but America hasn’t actually built a new warhead or bomb since the 1990s. “It has refurbished several types in…

The US govt spends 7.3 trillion dollars per year. So that’s about 0.5% of spending. As a fraction of US GDP it’s about 0.17%.

It’s tiny. The claim I was arguing against was this:

> the armaments manufacturers who actually control our society

You can’t control society with 0.17% of US GDP!

Note also that most of that spending does not flow to arms contractors so the actual figure is less. The bulk is spend on the defense department and other government agencies.

Here’s the report your article cites. See page 9

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ican/pages/1549/attach...

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#374

> Has Tech Destroyed Society? I recently watched the documentary The Man Who Saved the World [0], about Stanislav Petrov, who one day in 1983 made the decision to ignore the early warning system computers telling him the USA had fired 5 missiles at the USSR.[1] It seems had he followed orders, a report to his superiors would have resulted in mass retaliation. The decision was in his hands. In the movie, as well as a…

> Petrov explains emotionally to the guard that the Russian people wanted peace, and thought the USA wanted to attack them.

Good reason for us to personally think about (and investigate) whether our political/societal enemies really believe what we're told they believe about us. And I don't mean respond to a tweet, I mean have a real conversation.

Kinda feels like we're in an arms race where Facebook/Twitter are the arms dealers and have so much to gain from continued hostilities.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#375
post #257

> Has Tech Destroyed Society? I recently watched the documentary The Man Who Saved the World [0], about Stanislav Petrov, who one day in 1983 made the decision to ignore the early warning system computers telling him the USA had fired 5 missiles at the USSR.[1] It seems had he followed orders, a report to his superiors would have resulted in mass retaliation. The decision was in his hands. In the movie, as well as a…

It's possible that had "AI" been in charge at that time, the world would have been destroyed. I don't think "AI" is a threat in itself but relying on technology to make life-or-death decisions without human application, feels extremely dangerous.

What if you trained it on tic-tac-toe though?

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#376
post #94

It destroyed the average Joe's faith in the average Joe. Now, people are more separated than ever, in their echo chambers, hating each other and firmly believing they are better and righter than the other.

As a counterpoint, I've seen lots of people become more accepting because of the way the internet connects people. If you lived in a rural place before, you likely had very little interaction with minority groups outside of how they were portrayed in media. Now it's possible to interact with all kinds of people and recognize them as people instead of stereotypes. I don't deny that there are echo chambers and major co…

[deleted]

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#377
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a recent book about this, subtitled "The Luddites Are Right About Why You Hate Your Job": https://www.versobooks.com/books/3184-breaking-things-at-wor... > In the nineteenth century, English textile workers responded to the introduction of new technologies on the factory floor by smashing them to bits. For years the Luddites roamed the English countryside, practicing drills and manoeuvres that they would late…

I frankly expect "smashing them to bits" (or setting them on fire) to be the response in France when self-driving cargo trucks are introduced. In America and a lot of other rich countries I can imagine a large workforce just sort of slowly dissipating as they are made redundant by the unstoppable force of technology, but at least a few places may strongly disagree about the unstoppability, and put it to the test.

> I can imagine a large workforce just sort of slowly dissipating

Why imagine? The US working class is "slowly dissipating" in many ways:

* Homelessness

* Substance abuse, especially legal opiates

* Increase in mortality rates

etc.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#378

Regarding the first paragraphs where luddism is mentioned several times; Lord Byron, father to Ada Lovelace the first programmer, was one of the few on the House of Lords to defend the Luddites: > But the police, however useless, were by no means idle: several notorious delinquents had been detected; men liable to conviction, on the clearest evidence, of the capital crime of poverty; men, who had been nefariously gui…

There's a recent book about this, subtitled "The Luddites Are Right About Why You Hate Your Job": https://www.versobooks.com/books/3184-breaking-things-at-wor... > In the nineteenth century, English textile workers responded to the introduction of new technologies on the factory floor by smashing them to bits. For years the Luddites roamed the English countryside, practicing drills and manoeuvres that they would late…

I quit a job right after college because of the scene in Office Space where they smash the printer with a bat in the field. That movie was kind of a tip of the hat to the Luddites.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#379
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to be a stickler, but Europe isn't a country. It is simply inaccurate to claim that "Europe have a more stable society compared to the USA." There are countries within Europe that has extreme wealth, and extreme poverty, while most countries in Europe are still far better developed than, say, most countries in Africa. With that said, the best developed countries in Europe do seem to have a better social…

Why is it inaccurate to claim that? Sure, Europe is not one country but is made out of several countries, but so what? The USA is comprised out of states, some of them poorer than other; heck, even inside a single country there are richer and poorer regions/counties/lands/whatever, with money/labour flows and dynamics very similar to the international ones.

>money/labour flows and dynamics very similar to the international ones

It’s quite different in my experience. Workers can be employed in another state with almost no friction (with the possibility of a income tax declaration at hire) but it’s a lot more complicated to work internationally.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#380
Technology provides capabilities. Capablities can afford positive utility, as well as destructive power. Even the benign utility, specially if convenient, alters society and societal norms. Changes in society in turn affect the personal and collective mind, from language to philosophy.

Kelly expresses his horror of "no, no, no" when remembering his experiences travelling in technology poor locales in Asia.

'The journey, lasting for the better part of a decade, transformed him. “I was in very remote parts of Asia, parts of which were literally medieval societies in every respect, from the dress, architecture, beliefs, behavior,” he says. “I saw completely vehicle-less cities—people throwing garbage in the streets, no toilets. That's not even to mention the hinterland villages, which were without even metal.” When he returned to the US in 1979, he had a deep appreciation for the technology that made life easier.'

Kelly is focused on convenience. Convenience is reasonably a good thing. And this is the fundamental weakness of his position on the embrace of machine in human society. The mechanised society is clearly far more than just a more "convenient" human society.

There is a fundamental philosophical fork in the road that informs this question: is a human being, as an individual, a complete being, or is species as a whole (and including its civilizational artifacts) the complete being? This can be reworded as: do human beings have souls, or are we mere biological machines?

What Kelly does not consider -- and a cursory grep for "happy"/"happiness" in the Wired article seems to support this -- is what was the individual and social experience of these technology poor societies. Does having "no metal" preclude happiness? Does is possibly promote it?

As hacker news denizens neck deep in technology rich societies, the germinal question is whether we are happier because of technology or not. Obviously we enjoy greater conveniences. Are our societies healthier than before, or not?

Technology comes in two conceptual flavors: as tool, and as garment (immersive environment). It is the latter kind of technology which requires moderation, as it alters our perception and social experiences (whether by extending and/or enhancing senses, or collapsing spatial (transport tech) and temporal (a/v tech) aspects of our reality).

Naturally, those who hold that man is merely a biological machine, should and would argue for unimpeded integrtion of technology into human societies, and in its extremist manifestation, into the very unit organism itself. And it seems entirely reasonable that those of us who reject the notion of a soul-less Human being, to insist that there must be limits to unfettered adoption of technology, for the sake of Human happiness, and well being.

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