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The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

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Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#81

Post by WalterBright »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #65
WalterBright wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> crazy enough It's probably less risky than the first flight of the 1903 Wright Flyer. (The Flyer was highly unstable and could barely be controlled.) Modern notions of risk have changed quite a bit in the last century.

I dunno, I'd say it's rational for someone to be weary of joyriding in the first flight of a space capsule only designed to fly for three orbits. It's pretty common to define risk as probability multiplied by severity. The wright flyer flew about 30mph 8ft off the ground. Death would certainly have been possible, but unlikely. I could imagine someone walking away from a crash. Moderate probability of crash, moderate…

> unlikely

The pilots laid prone and head first. An auger in meant they'd go head first into the ground. I don't think there was a harness or anything to prevent that.

The Wrights were actually terrified of a nosedive into the ground, which is why they put the stabilizer out front. This made it much more responsive to pitch commands. Ironically, this was also the source of the pitch instability, making an abrupt nosedive more likely.

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#82

Post by WalterBright »

WalterBright wrote: post #81
sgtnoodle wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I'd say it's rational for someone to be weary of joyriding in the first flight of a space capsule only designed to fly for three orbits. It's pretty common to define risk as probability multiplied by severity. The wright flyer flew about 30mph 8ft off the ground. Death would certainly have been possible, but unlikely. I could imagine someone walking away from a crash. Moderate probability of crash, moderate…

> unlikely The pilots laid prone and head first. An auger in meant they'd go head first into the ground. I don't think there was a harness or anything to prevent that. The Wrights were actually terrified of a nosedive into the ground, which is why they put the stabilizer out front. This made it much more responsive to pitch commands. Ironically, this was also the source of the pitch instability, making an abrupt nose…

Curtis started out making airplanes by copying the Wright designs, including putting a stabilizer in a fixed position in front. Amateurs would buy his airplanes and race them. One racer crashed into a fence and damaged the forward stabilizer. In a hurry to rejoin the race, he simply sawed it off and took off. He found the airplane flew faster and better without it.

He transmitted this to Curtis after the race, who promptly pulled the stabilizer off all his airplanes that were in production.

And thus, the forward stabilizer disappeared.

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#83

Post by ben_w »

mchusma wrote: post #21
ripvanwinkle wrote: post #4

Hate to be that guy but what's the environmental impact of flying folks to orbit "just for kicks" if this were to become a business

Becoming space faring could allow us to have a trillion humans and have the planet be effectively a nature preserve. So long term net positive environmental impact I expect.

A trillion would need a decent amount of automation that has not yet been invented, and that same automation would make quintillions possible even just in this solar system.

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#84

Post by inglor_cz »

ForHackernews wrote: post #80
inglor_cz wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference would be public fallout in case of a death. That would be really crazy, not the risk for the person involved. In 1903, there was no radio, no TV, people would not learn about someone killed in his own contraption or boarding a risky prototype. Maximally as a short notice on sixth page of a newspaper. There was also no competing industry. In 2021, the outrage of seeing somebody killed on video because a…

> see, this abominable billionare finally killed somebody, as we prophecied since 2002!" Technically, Tesla's irresponsible so-called "autopilot" has already killed a handful of people, but generally the public has not been upset about it. [Accounting here (not all were killed by autopilot): https://www.tesladeaths.com/ ]

This is true, but we are much more desensitized against carnage on the roads.

There is a fantastic line in Neil Gaiman's American Gods:

“There were car gods there: a powerful, serious-faced contingent, with blood on their black gloves and on their chrome teeth: recipients of human sacrifice on a scale undreamed-of since the Aztecs.”

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#85

Post by KineticLensman »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #34

Back when I worked on cargo dragon, there were definitely some coworkers crazy enough to ride C1 up for a few orbits if it were allowed. They would have been fine with just a couple seatbelt straps too...

The first three man spaceflight - Voskhod 1 [0] in 1964 - was actually in a capsule designed for a crew of two. They didn't wear spacesuits so as to create room and make the additional weight more manageable. The third crewman - Georgy Katys - was actually an engineer rather than a cosmonaut, and was offered a seat for propaganda purposes. Allegedly his presence on the flight was a trade to buy his silence regarding the actual safety of the mission - he really wanted to get into space.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voskhod_1

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#86

Post by KineticLensman »

caf wrote: post #48
Prcmaker wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is perfect timing. I've just been told to communicate a significant project delay to a customer. 'Next quarter' sounds a lot better than 'months, not weeks'. Thanks heaps.

"slippage" possibly sounds better than "delay" also.

"shifted to the right" was the preferred euphemism when I used to work

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#87

Post by garaetjjte »

kqr2 wrote: post #56

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Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#88

Post by rpiguyshy »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #54
rpiguyshy wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what was the work environment like? do you have an opinion on elon musk? whos more right, his detractors or his proponents? i coulnt help but notice that you suffer with an inflammatory disorder -- just wanted to mention that eliminating carbohydrates is one of the most effective methods of reducing inflation that ive come across. dont write it off until you check out the success stories on meatrx.

It's been almost 8 years since I was there. Working on flight software was probably fairly unique compared to other parts of the company. We were critical path for the company more often than not, so there was a lot of visibility and support, and a lot of praise when we hit milestones. Other engineering disciplines often worked harder than us, but didn't get the same praise due to less visibility. Folk at SpaceX are…

hey so it seems like someone mistakenly flagged my comment, so im going to just go ahead and paste it here so this fascinating response can have some context for people who come across it later...

"what was the work environment like? do you have an opinion on elon musk? whos more right, his detractors or his proponents? i coulnt help but notice that you suffer with an inflammatory disorder -- just wanted to mention that eliminating carbohydrates is one of the most effective methods of reducing inflation that ive come across. dont write it off until you check out the success stories on meatrx."

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#89

Post by KineticLensman »

ripvanwinkle wrote: post #68
ripvanwinkle wrote: post #4

Hate to be that guy but what's the environmental impact of flying folks to orbit "just for kicks" if this were to become a business

Can someone help me understand why I was down voted. Is there anything wrong about thinking of the impact of something like this becoming a commonplace luxury.

Starting with

> Hate to be that guy but

will give some readers immediate negative connotations (i.e. that you are in fact 'that guy'). Asking the question without the 'that guy' preamble might still be seen as an off-topic downer but may have raised fewer hackles amongst the downvoters.

Perhaps.

Re: The first commercial astronaut mission to orbit Earth aboard Dragon

#90

Post by extraduder_ire »

mr_toad wrote: post #8
ripvanwinkle wrote: post #4

Hate to be that guy but what's the environmental impact of flying folks to orbit "just for kicks" if this were to become a business

Depends a lot on the fuel used. Solid boosters are terrible. Kerosene, like on the Falcon not too bad, but not great. Methane is better, it can in theory be made carbon neutral. Hydrogen is the best because it only produces water, but it’s not great as a first stage.

> Methane is better, it can in theory be made carbon neutral.

Methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than the amount of CO2 you get when you burn it. Most sources/uses of it are a net positive in terms of greenhouse effect.

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