A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? • Hacker News Board

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#161

Post by mywittyname » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:35 AM UTC

Bakary wrote: post #131

sircastor wrote: post #119

I’m reminded of a long bet made a number of years ago between Joseph Romm and Greg Blencoe that 1% of car sales in the US would be Hydrogen Fuel cell vehicles by 2015. I’d done a report on this in college and completely forgot about it, probably because hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are near impossible to find on the consumer market. So Blencoe lost the bet and paid Romm the $1000 and wore a T-shirt. He posted a very s…

Ironically hydrogen is having a renaissance as we speak

Only because natural gas is so damn cheap it almost isn't worth selling.

If you're a natural gas producer, it makes a lot of sense to pump hydrogen fuel. Ignorant* people think it is green, so it is an easy sell to the populous. Since it is actually made from NatGas, the success of hydrogen would be a significant boon to a substance that has been teetering on the edge of being industrial waste for years.

* Unknowing, not stupid.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#162

Post by nostromo » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:37 AM UTC

outworlder wrote: post #156

Bakary wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically hydrogen is having a renaissance as we speak

Only on Wall Street, which does not need to worry about actual physics or engineering.

... or even cash flow and profits.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#163

Post by shortandsweet » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:37 AM UTC

narrator wrote: post #117

shortandsweet wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same. I want to start a club of people like us. At a library with a coffee shop and bar included. Bunch of us philosophical peeps chillin and talking shit but nobody gets mad. I would love such a paradise.

It's called 4chan.

I don't get how 4chan related to the conversation. My main desire is to find people that are truth seekers. Question what we know and investigate. I don't find that curiousity in most people. How that is related to 4chan is lost on me.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#164

Post by jb_gericke » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:50 AM UTC

rramadass wrote: post #145

wernst wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I'm reminded of this quote from Ernest Hemingway: “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” Massive change due to tech is always just waiting to happen. Here's to hoping it just changes society without destroying it.

>“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” Great quote! Gradually and unknowingly you approach a tipping point until some factor pushes you over the edge like the proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back". I believe Sale was/is broadly right. Some of Nassim Taleb's ideas also play into this viz. our inability to predict the future and the catastrophic effect of non-linear and "black swan"…

Actually the global poverty line has been on a steady decline over the last three decades (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_poverty). We have made untold advances in the medical sciences (hello MRNA vaccines), we are rapidly divorcing ourselves from our reliance on fossil fuels, and we are living in a time when there is an unprecedented level of awareness for basal human rights (well, primarily in the West and North America). I feel Sale is incredibly naive in thinking agrarian or subsistence based societies were the pinnacle of human comfort. Back breaking labour, very long working hours, poor health care and for the most part, endentured servitude to those who own the land/mills/factories you toil away in? A very reductive and simplistic way of thinking, ala 'Lets go back to the good ol days where the world made sense to me...' It's ridiculous.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#165

Post by JamisonM » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:52 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #58

glenstein wrote: post #37

A comment I made on this when it was posted a few days ago: I am surprised that this was regarded as a close decision. I guess a lot depends on wording, but when one person is predicting the dollar will be worthless, and the person in the role of judge claims that given global economic uncertainty, it's a "close" question, I wonder if they're just saying that to be diplomatic. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty,…

It was close, in 2008. It was frighteningly close. Not before or since, but yeah, I'll give them "close" on that one. ("Worse than 1930" was part of the criterion. We didn't come close to that in terms of the final outcome, but we were, I think, within a very few days of getting there.)

I really don't think that 2008 was ever close to anything like "Worse than 1930". For example Europe handled the financial crisis in an almost completely farcical way and didn't suffer anything close to the economic problems of 1930's America. There was never a moment where the US or any other important financial center was at risk of a real bank run of any significance.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#166

Post by JamisonM » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:54 AM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #74

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was close, in 2008. It was frighteningly close. Not before or since, but yeah, I'll give them "close" on that one. ("Worse than 1930" was part of the criterion. We didn't come close to that in terms of the final outcome, but we were, I think, within a very few days of getting there.)

There is a pretty good chance that the period of 2022-2035 or so will be a lot worse than the 2008-2015 one.

I would like to know why you would think that.

In US terms it seems clear that financial support in excess of that available in 2009 onwards will be provided.

Vaccines are being delivered and economic activity will increase as the fear of COVID-19 subsides.

Is this based on political gridlock after the next set of US midterms? Something not COVID-19 related?

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#167

Post by malwrar » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:56 AM UTC

shortandsweet wrote: post #163

narrator wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called 4chan.

I don't get how 4chan related to the conversation. My main desire is to find people that are truth seekers. Question what we know and investigate. I don't find that curiousity in most people. How that is related to 4chan is lost on me.

I think the poster means the anonymous, no upvote aspect. Seriously, I’ve been on quite a few different styles of message board and discussion quality is noticeably better when you can’t get any other queues about how “right” an post is except for its content. Depending on the subject, some of the not-pol/b boards can actually be quite nice.

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#168

Post by SirHound » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 5:56 AM UTC

jb_gericke wrote: post #164

rramadass wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” Great quote! Gradually and unknowingly you approach a tipping point until some factor pushes you over the edge like the proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back". I believe Sale was/is broadly right. Some of Nassim Taleb's ideas also play into this viz. our inability to predict the future and the catastrophic effect of non-linear and "black swan"…

Actually the global poverty line has been on a steady decline over the last three decades ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_poverty ). We have made untold advances in the medical sciences (hello MRNA vaccines), we are rapidly divorcing ourselves from our reliance on fossil fuels, and we are living in a time when there is an unprecedented level of awareness for basal human rights (well, primarily in the West a…

And just imagine all the tribal wars. Talk about forgetting your history

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#169

Post by rramadass » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 6:03 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #152

rramadass wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” Great quote! Gradually and unknowingly you approach a tipping point until some factor pushes you over the edge like the proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back". I believe Sale was/is broadly right. Some of Nassim Taleb's ideas also play into this viz. our inability to predict the future and the catastrophic effect of non-linear and "black swan"…

Yeah we're just likely to cruise along operating as "ABoringDystopia" until we hit some kind of fairly hard stop. I don't know what that is going to look like though so I'm not taking any concrete bets. I certainly don't know what comes after.

Jacques Ellul also has a lot to say on the effects of Technology on Society.

I think the following factors, broadly speaking; will be our (i.e. Civilization as we know it today) downfall;

  * Environmental Disaster as a consequence of rampant consumerism. The planet simply cannot sustain it. Our current "Renewables/Recyclables/Carbon Credit etc." policies are a joke. We have forgotten that our planet is a closed system with finite resources.

  * Our "Baser" Instincts - We will always subvert any and all technological advances towards the pursuit of power, wealth, and greed and exclude "others" (i.e. those not belonging to our group) thus increasing the "inequalities" in our society.

  * Non-linear "catastrophic" effects of many of our social systems - As Nassim Taleb points out in his books, many of our systems are non-linear in their effects and inherently fragile. Thus our ability to predict the long-term future is non-existent.

  * The rise of mono-culture biological and social systems. Evolution has always proceeded as a loosely coupled federation of highly cohesive units eg. Madagascar/Australia vs. Asia/Europe, small self-sustaining villages/kingdoms bartering amongst themselves vs. megapolises with huge populations and pegged to a "common currency". This makes the entire system fragile to local shocks.

  * Adaptation and Evolution of other species against our measures towards controlling them eg. "Superbugs".

Re: A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

#170

Post by JamisonM » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 6:07 AM UTC

There are a lot of frustratingly silly responses to this article supporting Sale's side of this bet. This is utter madness, Sale wasn't even close!

By virtually every material measure society has improved in the intervening time, in spite of the horrendous response to the financial crisis of 2008 and even the bungled response to SARS-COV-2.

Lots silly self-indulgent stuff that is really indirectly about alienation and whatnot, get over yourselves!

Its not like I don't stress about democratic backsliding and income inequality and God knows what else but the big picture perspective is clear, Sale is obviously so wrong that he should be embarrassed. But he's a crank, so he's doubling down.