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The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

thetyee.ca

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Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#221

Post by __blockcipher__ »

Jestar342 wrote: post #76
__blockcipher__ wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ethics of mandates aside, there’s no strong evidence that universal cloth masking in a community setting reduces transmissions, and many theoretical mechanisms by which they could worsen transmission (increased aerosol generation, deeper breaths to maintain o2 homeostasis leading to more absolute aerosols, improper handling->contamination, altered social behavior, having to speak louder or closer). So, I would argue…

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-covid-19-study-f... https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-abou... https://fullfact.org/health/evidence-shows-masks-do-offer-pr... Please stop perpetuating this myth that masks don't work all because you just don't like wearing one.

These are closer to pop-sci articles than proper papers. Please read everything Macintyre ever published on the topic of masking in healthcare works before 2020. Start with this one:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

Linking me a bunch of public health websites isn’t convincing because these organizations don’t actually maintain epistemiological rigor, they just parrot whatever the dogma is.

The only RCT of masking for COVID-19 ever performed showed an insignificant benefit in terms of self-infection at best.

Meanwhile studies in HCW can’t rule out cloth masks causing bacterial pneumonia and increased self-infection.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#222

Post by __blockcipher__ »

freeone3000 wrote: post #83
__blockcipher__ wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ethics of mandates aside, there’s no strong evidence that universal cloth masking in a community setting reduces transmissions, and many theoretical mechanisms by which they could worsen transmission (increased aerosol generation, deeper breaths to maintain o2 homeostasis leading to more absolute aerosols, improper handling->contamination, altered social behavior, having to speak louder or closer). So, I would argue…

Schools are a huge transmission vector for every communicable disease. Gathering a bunch of people from different households causes diseases to jump between households. It doesn't matter if the kids aren't harmed, it's communicating the disease through the population.

This has not shown to be the case for COVID-19. Hell, school closures weren’t even recommended by the WHO for influenza which can directly harm children.

You need to provide affirmative evidence before undertaking societal interventions with guaranteed negative impact. Does the hippocratic oath ring a bell?

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#223

Post by anotherevan »

bumbada wrote: post #71

Something must be said: It is too late. The New Zealand or Taiwan model works because you don't let the virus enter in the first place. Also New Zealand and Australia are in Summer right now. Just 30 seconds of Australia sun radiation now will kill(inactivate) any virus on any surface. Temperature will dry the membrane of any COVID virus that remains on the shadow. People immune system is much stronger in Summer, and…

Can we please stop going on about it being summer. The lockdowns we had in Melbourne that lead to elimination was during our winter.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#224

Post by __blockcipher__ »

croes wrote: post #206
__blockcipher__ wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Viruses generally change to be less deadly and more transmissible. The “new variant” is just more transmissible. It doesn’t make sense to argue “oh what if this virus magically evolves to hurt children”. You need to propose a theoretical mechanism of action. Otherwise spend your time worrying about flu and tuberculosis which kill far more children than COVID-19.

And it infects children more easily.

What’s your point? As I said:

> over the long run the set of all COVID-19-naive individuals becomes dominated by the very young (infants/toddlers), who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#225

Post by __blockcipher__ »

croes wrote: post #207
throwaway3699 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We cannot indefinitely implement totalitarian lockdowns based on the fact that something "might" happen. No joke, that is how dictatorships start.

Some things are more likely than others.

Yes, for example ushering in a new totalitarian age is much more likely than a (in children) very mild virus magically becoming super deadly.

I really think you may not have ever read the literature on COVID-19 in children. We should be shouting at the rooftops that kids are safe (and btw transmit less than kids), instead here in California we’ve closed school for a year which will - in children - far surpass the harms of COVID-19 by orders of magnitude.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#226

Post by maxerickson »

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #216
maxerickson wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we actually did contact tracing, illegal crossings of infected people would be easy enough to deal with. Infections in the US are not being driven by sick people coming in from Mexico.

Very fallacious reasoning here. No-one is saying that infections are driven by Mexican immigrants. Rather they’re pointing out the obvious: if you’re trying to get to zero COVID, all it takes is one person to start the chain. Thus you cannot have ANY illegal immigration. FWIW I strongly oppose the “zero COVID” goal because it’s completely unrealistic. We’ll see if the island nations can maintain it long-term but cert…

It's not fallacious reasoning. See the sentence in my other comment where I addressed your reply: If we actually did contact tracing, illegal crossings of infected people would be easy enough to deal with.

Sure, we'd have to actually do something, but it would take less resources than we are expending on medical care, for instance.

The countries with low infection levels don't need to maintain it for all that much longer, we have effective vaccines. Probably 6 months (At which point they will likely have vaccinated much of their populations).

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#227

Post by anotherevan »

Can people in the northern hemisphere stop banging on that the reason it is so easy for us to get a handle on COVID in Australia is because it is summer. We eliminated COVID in Melbourne during winter with wearing masks and real lockdowns. It was not easy. It required a huge effort of societal and political will and cooperation. It involved following the science. Stop blaming the weather.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#228

Post by Jestar342 »

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #221
Jestar342 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-covid-19-study-f... https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-abou... https://fullfact.org/health/evidence-shows-masks-do-offer-pr... Please stop perpetuating this myth that masks don't work all because you just don't like wearing one.

These are closer to pop-sci articles than proper papers. Please read everything Macintyre ever published on the topic of masking in healthcare works before 2020. Start with this one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/ Linking me a bunch of public health websites isn’t convincing because these organizations don’t actually maintain epistemiological rigor, they just parrot whatever the dogma is. The o…

Literally all of them link scientific papers, if you'd care to read.

And it's not "self-infection" that masking is a protection of. Nobody has claimed that. You wear a mask to protect those around you, and they wear their's to protect you.

Though it figures you are obsessed with the self and have no regard for the other.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#229

Post by denismi »

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #219
kingofpandora wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why the USA or Canada can't do what NZ did. If you are serious about stopping travel into the country by closing the border to travellers - and actually quarantining the residents who come back home - then you only have the relatively minor flow of illegal land crossing. Neither Canada nor the US have even tried.

This article is about zero COVID . “Relatively minor flow” (btw I’m not convinced it’s even minor...) means you never eradicate the virus (which is why I oppose the idea of zero covid categorically)

The outbreak in Victoria in May-Sep 2020 was the source of the majority of all COVID cases in Australia.

Sharing a land border with Victoria did not make it impossible for New South Wales or Victoria to get back to zero - and that's states, not countries, so the extent of the border infrastructure is a few "Welcome to Victoria" signs.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#230

Post by lancewiggs »

eqdw wrote: post #192

This author appears to be completely unaware that, in the US anyway, the progress of the pandemic has been completely and totally disconnected from all control measures. San Francisco, where I'm told (and believe, based on having lived there) that they had very strict lockdown measures: https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp * Population: ~900,000 * Total Cases: 31,111 (3,457 / 100k) * Total Deaths: 324 (36…

Those lockdowns are not actual lockdowns, and were doomed to fail.

Moreover lockdown restrictions were removed when numbers of new cases simply lowered, as opposed to all known cases being removed from community and quarantined, and confidence there was zero community transmission.

Meanwhile borders are porous, with new cases arriving constantly. The combination of all this is heartbreakingly difficult to observe.

Honestly this stuff is easy.

A lockdown means only essential workers who actually keep the lights on and provide food go to work, and they do with ridiculous protection.

It means no fast food delivery, no public transport or Ubers, no leaving your residence except for exercise (maybe - some places you had to stay inside) and 1/week shop at the supermarket (or delivery) with one person/household.

It means closing the borders firmly, and government-provided and provisioned (not outsourced) quarantining every arrival for at least 14 days.

And it means providing plenty of funding and kindness to businesses and people to allow them to get through without fear. Including putting homeless into homes (e.g. empty hotel rooms).

And it needs to last long enough to know and isolate every case, which is say 6-8 weeks if done properly.

The US and UK failed on every one of these tests, and hundreds of thousands of people are dead.

Meanwhile in New Zealand we did the above almost a year ago, and are enjoying our summer break essentially normally.

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