The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe • Hacker News Board

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#191

Post by baxtr » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 4:03 PM UTC

josephg wrote: post #171

baxtr wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have it backwards. I never said being an Island will save you, see the UK. Still the fact remains that there is no other Western country which is no Island that has zero Covid. If you accept this fact we can start discussing the underlying reasons. Maybe it’s because they’re islands, and maybe you’re right and it’s because of the policy in place. I believe it’s the former, because it’s way more difficult…

Yeah I agree there are no other western countries with zero covid except a couple island nations. There's also no other countries which have seriously tried to get covid to 0 except some island nations - which is interesting. I'm convinced the most important difference is policy, but I wonder if there might be some psychological effect of living on an island all by yourself which makes you think "Well, can we just pr…

I agree with you. The most important difference is policy. And I also think the EU should have acted very differently. They should have been way quicker and more decisive.

However, bear in mind that Europe has become super interconnected in the last decade or so. There are millions crossing borders to work on the other side. Germany is a great example. Those counties close to the Czech border had way higher incidence levels, most probably due to the constant exchange with Czech Republic.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#192

Post by eqdw » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

This author appears to be completely unaware that, in the US anyway, the progress of the pandemic has been completely and totally disconnected from all control measures.

San Francisco, where I'm told (and believe, based on having lived there) that they had very strict lockdown measures:

https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp

* Population: ~900,000

* Total Cases: 31,111 (3,457 / 100k)

* Total Deaths: 324 (36 / 100k)

Compare Austin, TX, where I can personally attest that basically everyone has said fuck the rules for almost six months now

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#...

* Population: ~2,400,000

* Total Cases: 68,290 (2,845 / 100k)

* Total Deaths: 655 (27 / 100k)

The stats are virtually identical despite dramatically different policy decisions. So what the hell is the point?

As an addendum, to put this into perspective: in 2020, Oakland's murder rate was 23/100k, making it _almost as high as the covid death rate_. Why is it that one year of covid deaths is a world-destroying incident, but _every_ year of Oakland deaths and nobody does anything about it ever? Are Bay Area people really just that racist?

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#193

Post by KineticLensman » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

gridspy wrote: post #93

KineticLensman wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But not a major transit hub, miles from anywhere, low density population

Being a transit hub is irrelevant if the people in transit do not mix with those out of transit. Keep the (potentially) sick people on the "air side" of the airport terminal and then directly into quarantines on arrive at the final destination. Those who bridge this gap (air crews, terminal staff) need to follow very strict measures (PPE, cleaning, regular testing) to make that work. Perhaps more places need to decid…

> Being a transit hub is irrelevant

Well, if your country isn't a transit hub, then you avoid hub problems completely. If you are a hub, then you have additional problems that New Zealand doesn't, that you have to work to mitigate.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#194

Post by ryandrake » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 5:10 PM UTC

icelancer wrote: post #126

gridspy wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I concur it was hand-wavy. I'd hope there was some acceptable measure you could get through the courts here in the name of health. Such a barrier is only really essential when different states have different rules. If you could get all states to agree on a lock-down it would go a long way. You might be able to set up quarantine barriers as you exit the interstate? I don't know. Personally, I think it is terms like "l…

>> I'd hope there was some acceptable measure you could get through the courts here in the name of health. Interstate commerce clause is going to be nearly impossible to subvert in courts, much less state autonomy, and non-cooperating governors (primarily Republican, I'm sure, but Gov. Polis likely wouldn't go for it either). >> Talk about the issues, not some made up catch all names like "libertarian" My comment was…

We Americans are experts on what can't be done. Things that are routinely done in many places around the world, like universal healthcare, free education, and schools without shootings, are routinely declared "impossible" in America. Whenever you suggest even the slightest societal behavioral change to fight some public problem, you have hundreds of thousands of people simply dismissing it because "Americans won't do it, or the law won't allow it, or Wall Street doesn't like it, therefore it's completely impossible."

This is from a country that fought the British Empire, helped turn the tide in WW2, put a man on the moon, and made many scientific and technical achievements in the 20th century. But somehow, now, we can't seem to accomplish anything.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#195

Post by pbourke » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

gridspy wrote: post #120

icelancer wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Shut down the highway off-ramps into towns with some sort of inter-state quarantine scheme (make this legal) "Make this legal" is a pretty hand-wavy way to say that it isn't legal and isn't likely to become legal. Restricting interstate travel is going to be very difficult to both achieve and to survive federal court challenges. Some toolkits are not available to some countries. The United States is unlikely to be…

I concur it was hand-wavy. I'd hope there was some acceptable measure you could get through the courts here in the name of health. Such a barrier is only really essential when different states have different rules. If you could get all states to agree on a lock-down it would go a long way. You might be able to set up quarantine barriers as you exit the interstate? I don't know. Personally, I think it is terms like "l…

I don’t think that the ability to enforce the restrictions was the most important success criteria.

Australia, NZ and the other countries that have succeeded have a pro-social culture of collective effort.

The US, and increasingly Canada as well, do not - they have an “everyone for themselves” culture.

In the end if people are not going to follow the rules it won’t matter what you try to do - you will fail. In the US and Canada people only halfheartedly follow the rules when the situation is grim, the ERs are filled and freezer trucks parked in the hospital parking lot.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#196

Post by gls2ro » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 5:46 PM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #139

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

In Europe, the conclusion was that you simply cannot do that, physically. It is so integrated, even for essentials such as food or medication, that you have a huge area, requiring delivery/lorry drivers whizzing around, medical staff in hospitals and care homes, etc. Short sharp shock just can’t happen. So then, if you’re stuck in shades of gray, you have to weigh the antiviral benefits of the lockdown with just keep…

Maybe now is a good time to see EU as one unit and have strategies at EU levels: i.e the same lockdown for all EU.

Of course this is not working under the current way of how EU works, but I think this is the only pragmatic solution as response to such crisis.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#197

Post by lostmsu » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

rob74 wrote: post #164

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

Kudos to New Zealand, but I'll restate the obvious here: for this strategy it really helps if you're an island - not only with the initial implementation of the strategy, but also with staying virus-free once you reach that state. Because in NZ everyone who enters the country is registered and can be forced to follow the quarantine rules. By contrast, in the EU, we have land borders without border checks. Sure, peopl…

Should not be much of a problem in US with only 2 land borders.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#198

Post by edoceo » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

eqdw wrote: post #192

This author appears to be completely unaware that, in the US anyway, the progress of the pandemic has been completely and totally disconnected from all control measures. San Francisco, where I'm told (and believe, based on having lived there) that they had very strict lockdown measures: https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp * Population: ~900,000 * Total Cases: 31,111 (3,457 / 100k) * Total Deaths: 324 (36…

My perception, born and raised east-bay, is the Oakland has been a lost cause (for murders) since at least 1985. And more than one mayoral candidate has talked up the issue.

But, and this is the terrible part, the murder happens to "the poors". So, IMO,, it's less about racism and more about classism (possibly rooted in racism).

It's similar to how we (usa) don't care too much about the covid deaths. It's like Earthican tradition for disease and pestilence to affect poor folks first/more and for the wealthy to just not see it (they simply look the other way).

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#199

Post by Uw7yTcf36gTc » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 7:00 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #194

icelancer wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I'd hope there was some acceptable measure you could get through the courts here in the name of health. Interstate commerce clause is going to be nearly impossible to subvert in courts, much less state autonomy, and non-cooperating governors (primarily Republican, I'm sure, but Gov. Polis likely wouldn't go for it either). >> Talk about the issues, not some made up catch all names like "libertarian" My comment was…

We Americans are experts on what can't be done. Things that are routinely done in many places around the world, like universal healthcare, free education, and schools without shootings, are routinely declared "impossible" in America. Whenever you suggest even the slightest societal behavioral change to fight some public problem, you have hundreds of thousands of people simply dismissing it because "Americans won't do…

That America died in the 80s unfortunately.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#200

Post by techsupporter » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 7:28 PM UTC

josephg wrote: post #135

icelancer wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we going to ignore the fact AUS and NZ are island nations who have nearly permanently banned international arrivals unless there's a 14 day quarantine upon entering, and sometimes that's not even allowed? The United States can't stop illegal immigration and cross-border state travel with or without a pandemic. The laws and expectations are significantly different in connected regions like the US and EU compared t…

The US's covid numbers aren't high because of a few people crossing the mexican border illegally. (And Mexico seems to be handling covid better than the US anyway.) Being an island has nothing to do with it. The difference is due to different health policies. - We had mandatory masks in all public places here in Melbourne with on the spot fines by police. Over in the US lots of people thought covid is a hoax, and eve…

> These differences have nothing to do with sharing your continent with Canada and Mexico. They have everything to do with culture and public policy.

Exactly. I live in Washington State and even now, one major party in our Legislature is trying to get at least three bills through that would declare "Emperor" (language not used in the bill, but definitely on Twitter) Inslee's emergency orders, including the mask mandate, void and tell everyone to do what they think best. Which, fine, except for the whole community transmission and insisting on businesses be open--with those employees being told "work or starve"--things.

We've been hearing for many months that masks are required and must be worn and put them on and yet...everyone disclaims all responsibility for enforcing this. I don't blame retail employees from saying "we do not want to be on the other end of a screaming patron in exchange for minimum wage," but when even the government tells us that they're relying solely on people's discretion and good sense, things fall flat. I'm not saying arrest everyone who has their nose hanging atop a mask, that would be disproportionately unwise, but we absolutely can and should be having people in authority out day and night at shops, buses, parks, ferries, and so on reminding people that your nose goes under your mask.