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The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

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Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#131

Post by ahepp »

Last spring, we were flattening the curve. Last summer, we were waiting for a vaccine. Last fall, we were solving the logistical challenges for production. Now I'm starting to see headlines that "just because there's a vaccine, doesn't mean it's over"?

I'm 25. I've spent the last year in a small apartment alone with my dog. If the problem is that we didn't lock down well enough the first time, why should I believe a better job will be done this time?

If the CDC says it, I'll do it. But I'm tired of reading "science writers" constantly shitting on the situation. Really makes me wonder why I bothered in the first place.

I thought "American science has given us a Lamborghini when what the world needs is a Toyota" was a particular gem in this piece. I could swear six months to a year ago I was reading people like this guy saying we shouldn't expect a vaccine to be discovered soon, if ever.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#132

Post by pbourke »

MattGaiser wrote: post #30

The author never says it and probably because he knows the reaction it would cause. "Decisive" lockdown at this point would likely be a troops patrolling the street type of event with extreme restrictions on leaving one's home. I don't see that being anywhere near politically acceptable in many areas of the country.

There would be nowhere enough troops to patrol the streets in Canada. They could supply extra reinforcement to ports/borders.

A closure order + heavy fines/penalties + economic support would work, along with clear messaging around goals and exit criteria.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#133

Post by icelancer »

andylynch wrote: post #127
icelancer wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. K…

Have a look at Vietnam then, they have handled this really well. Or for ans even better comparison to the US, China. There’s a lot to criticise about the CCP including their initial response and transparency, but it seems pretty clear they are now on top of it using similar tactics.

Vietnam banned international inbound travel without a 14-day quarantine and extinguished local transmission via test and trace. These are both very good ideas and both impractical for the United States.

The former is a logistical nightmare in a collection of states that basically is not possible to carry out due to our incompetent government and the scale of international travel in the US being several orders of magnitude higher than Vietnam's per capita (and gross rates of course) and the latter won't work (and hasn't worked when we tried it) because our population is inherently distrustful of our government(s) and generally have the right to be that way.

Again, not all tools smaller countries have are available to larger ones, and vice versa (America/EU/etc have better access to vaccines as a plus, for example).

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#134

Post by andylynch »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #109
mkl wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible to close borders without being on an island. I (in NZ) don't think the the island factor is essential. The USA has more active military personnel than almost any other country, enough to make closing borders pretty easy compared with many other places.

It's not clear that it is possible. The obvious point of comparison is China, which has continually had to fight off new waves of infections despite strong lockdowns and strong border restrictions. (A lockdown started just 2 weeks ago covering about as many people as the total population of Australia.)

They do seem to be doing ok with it. Their lockdowns and done properly and actually work. ( speaking from the UK where arrivals still quarantine on the honour system and govt offices are hot spots despite being declared ‘COVID safe’)

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#135

Post by josephg »

icelancer wrote: post #94
josephg wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australian here, living in Victoria (where we had a second wave and a strict lockdown that took us to 0). They didn't round up the whole country and put us in prison (!?). The rules we had were: - Stay home. The only allowed reasons to leave our homes were essential supplies (eg visiting the supermarket), caring for family, going to work (if you couldn't work from home) or exercise (eg going for a walk). Or if you ne…

Are we going to ignore the fact AUS and NZ are island nations who have nearly permanently banned international arrivals unless there's a 14 day quarantine upon entering, and sometimes that's not even allowed? The United States can't stop illegal immigration and cross-border state travel with or without a pandemic. The laws and expectations are significantly different in connected regions like the US and EU compared t…

The US's covid numbers aren't high because of a few people crossing the mexican border illegally. (And Mexico seems to be handling covid better than the US anyway.)

Being an island has nothing to do with it. The difference is due to different health policies.

- We had mandatory masks in all public places here in Melbourne with on the spot fines by police. Over in the US lots of people thought covid is a hoax, and even your president refused to wear a mask.

- Australia declared mass gatherings to be illegal - it went through the courts and the judges decided public safety trumped a citizen's rights to protest during the pandemic. Germany's courts ruled in the opposite direction for an anti-mask protest. And meanwhile the US had BLM protests for months, presidential rallies and the capital hill riot.

And so on. These differences have nothing to do with sharing your continent with Canada and Mexico. They have everything to do with culture and public policy.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#136

Post by caillougris »

icelancer wrote: post #133
andylynch wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have a look at Vietnam then, they have handled this really well. Or for ans even better comparison to the US, China. There’s a lot to criticise about the CCP including their initial response and transparency, but it seems pretty clear they are now on top of it using similar tactics.

Vietnam banned international inbound travel without a 14-day quarantine and extinguished local transmission via test and trace. These are both very good ideas and both impractical for the United States. The former is a logistical nightmare in a collection of states that basically is not possible to carry out due to our incompetent government and the scale of international travel in the US being several orders of magn…

Vietnam also put vietnamese in "prison" like quarantine for every suspicion.. that can't be done in the US/EU. It won't be accepted, and there is already too many cases.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#137

Post by jansan »

pbourke wrote: post #132
MattGaiser wrote: post #30

The author never says it and probably because he knows the reaction it would cause. "Decisive" lockdown at this point would likely be a troops patrolling the street type of event with extreme restrictions on leaving one's home. I don't see that being anywhere near politically acceptable in many areas of the country.

There would be nowhere enough troops to patrol the streets in Canada. They could supply extra reinforcement to ports/borders. A closure order + heavy fines/penalties + economic support would work, along with clear messaging around goals and exit criteria.

>along with clear messaging around goals and exit criteria.

This! The lack of clear exit criteria and the continous moving of goalposts convinced me that the pandemic is used as a vehicle for a political agenda and even if it mutated into a mild cough politicians would still try to keep the hysteria alive, at least in the EU and Canada.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#138

Post by mkl »

icelancer wrote: post #133
andylynch wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have a look at Vietnam then, they have handled this really well. Or for ans even better comparison to the US, China. There’s a lot to criticise about the CCP including their initial response and transparency, but it seems pretty clear they are now on top of it using similar tactics.

Vietnam banned international inbound travel without a 14-day quarantine and extinguished local transmission via test and trace. These are both very good ideas and both impractical for the United States. The former is a logistical nightmare in a collection of states that basically is not possible to carry out due to our incompetent government and the scale of international travel in the US being several orders of magn…

The distrust of government is a major obstacle. In NZ we have a government that took a science-based and very transparent approach, and is pretty well trusted (it helped that opposition parties mostly agreed with the measures). The government basically said "Here is the situation. Here is what we need to do to fix it. Because of that, here's the rules. And here's how we'll help." And most of the population just went "Well, okay then.", and complied, with some grumbles.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#139

Post by rich_sasha »

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

In Europe, the conclusion was that you simply cannot do that, physically. It is so integrated, even for essentials such as food or medication, that you have a huge area, requiring delivery/lorry drivers whizzing around, medical staff in hospitals and care homes, etc. Short sharp shock just can’t happen.

So then, if you’re stuck in shades of gray, you have to weigh the antiviral benefits of the lockdown with just keeping the lights out. That’s a tough one to balance.

Kudos to New Zealand, I’m just not sure it’s a blueprint others can replicate.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#140

Post by andylynch »

saiya-jin wrote: post #128
gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

New Zealand had it very easy with its geography. Same for other relatively small islands. Place like EU with its own national, often competing goals can't be effectively 100% locked out. That's what happens when you have a federation with strong independent parts. Not that I disagree with your points, they should be the baseline for any serious covid response. Lockdown measures have so far always been watered down by…

The geography in NZ is I think a secondary factor. Due to its isolation and reliance on agriculture, NZ has always had a very strong bio security policy and the systems in place to effect it. (Try bringing in a apple, pot of honey or muddy shoes. Actually don’t!). So when they had to make the call, they weren’t exactly starting from scratch.

In addition, virtually everyone got behind the lockdown and made it work together- this is nothing to do with geography and all to do with good leadership, and a strong society.

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