The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe • Hacker News Board

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#101

Post by mkl » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:34 AM UTC

icelancer wrote: post #89

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. K…

It's possible to close borders without being on an island. I (in NZ) don't think the the island factor is essential. The USA has more active military personnel than almost any other country, enough to make closing borders pretty easy compared with many other places.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#102

Post by icelancer » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:34 AM UTC

kiba wrote: post #16

zpeti wrote: post #12

China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines. I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing…

Yes. If it means I can actually go to the gym and workout, meet my friends, etc. I am tired of wearing the god damn masks, having to worry about my elderly parents, Are you tired of the god damn pandemic? I know I am. Because we already have no freedom.

>> Yes. If it means I can actually go to the gym and workout, meet my friends, etc.

It doesn't. No amount of hiding temporarily solves the problem. Authoritarian rules would be in effect until immunity rates are above herd thresholds at a minimum. There is no "one month" shutdown in the US or a connected EU country that solves the problem permanently unless you ban international travelers / force them to quarantine for 14 days in a hotel.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#103

Post by samoa42 » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:34 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #28

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think the mink culling was an absurd over-reaction and highly unethical. Those poor minks. (Disclosure: I also think the same for the human lockdowns too though)

Lockdowns work. End of story. Melbourne, Australia had a 4-month lockdown which turned an exponentially-rising 500+ cases a day scenario into elimination. Saving thousands of lives. No other place has managed to do something similar and it shows hotel quarantine of foreign arrivals, aggressive contact-tracing, mandatory mask-wearing, social distancing and lockdowns work. The Swedish laissez-faire approach does not.

i just seem to miss why its favorable to curtail millions (incl. children) of their lives and stomp the economy for the benefit of thousands. shouldn't we have banned alcohol, tabacco, ice-cars, firearms, gambling ... first if this was so important?

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#104

Post by gridspy » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:35 AM UTC

icelancer wrote: post #89

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. K…

- Make tests free (fully subsidized)

- Shut down the highway off-ramps into towns with some sort of inter-state quarantine scheme (make this legal)

- Institute financial support for all non-essential businesses, then force them to close (cease in person trading) during lock-down

- Educate the populace on Covid details

It's not just about strong walls or deep oceans. We're not talking about a zombie apocalypse here. Stop making excuses.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#105

Post by icelancer » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:35 AM UTC

josephg wrote: post #33

baxtr wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This and all other countries mentioned are Islands (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan)

Just because she's not an island, Canada can still close her borders. I'm sure it'll be inconvenient, but short and sharp beats long and drawn out.

>> Canada can still close her borders

This was already done and the infection rates are still sky high.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#106

Post by throwaway3699 » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:35 AM UTC

jasdine817 wrote: post #46

throwaway3699 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is faced with a lack of choice here. My read is that people strongly dislike the current government policies but believe that the cons are "least worst". There's been very little in the way of real opposition, sadly. For instance, when the Tories do make actual fuckups Labour usually resort to off-topic complaints about idpol so the Tories just do whatever they want with no push back.

The main issue is a voting system that only allows two parties to compete and makes parties between fractious groups of people with very different views. The Tories for whatever reason are just far better at aligning most of their party to the goal of winning.

The two-party system is bad, but I do believe Labour are responsible for making themselves unelectable. The last general election they were running some of the most disliked front-benchers in politics: McDonnell, Corbyn and Abbott, as well as making it very clear they were anti-Brexit.

(I'm from the North, this is the general sentiment in my local community. More stringent lockdown policy is also incredibly unpopular here.)

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#107

Post by icelancer » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:35 AM UTC

gridspy wrote: post #63

irq11 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until they open their borders.

The New Zealand borders are open and accepting citizen and essential arrivals into quarantine with a long waiting list.

>> The New Zealand borders are open and accepting citizen and essential arrivals into quarantine with a long waiting list.

This effectively reads "closed."

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#108

Post by mewse » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:36 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #28

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think the mink culling was an absurd over-reaction and highly unethical. Those poor minks. (Disclosure: I also think the same for the human lockdowns too though)

Lockdowns work. End of story. Melbourne, Australia had a 4-month lockdown which turned an exponentially-rising 500+ cases a day scenario into elimination. Saving thousands of lives. No other place has managed to do something similar and it shows hotel quarantine of foreign arrivals, aggressive contact-tracing, mandatory mask-wearing, social distancing and lockdowns work. The Swedish laissez-faire approach does not.

I agree.

But also, having lived in both countries for more than 20 years each (including being in Melbourne now and throughout the lockdowns), I can’t imagine a country like the US ever engaging in a lockdown, or it working if they tried. It just doesn’t match their national role models of how people are supposed to act and what they’re supposed to care about.

The whole defining ideal here in Australia is “mateship”. As you’re growing up, the revered role model that you’re told you should emulate is the “good mate”; being compassionate, taking people as they are, taking care of each other. That’s what they tell each other it means to be Australian.

The equivalent mythic figure at the center of US society is the cowboy. It’s all about rugged individualism over there. And sure you take pains to protect your own family, but certainly not anybody else’s. Anything which requires one to take an ounce of inconvenience to help the society as a whole, that’s just not what Americans are generally raised to value. Those other folks ought to be taking care of their own families, after all. So you’ve got a whole society of people where the majority say “I’m not going to wear a mask if it mostly protects you.” And you’re certainly not going to convince a large enough percentage of people to obey a mandate as inconvenient as a requirement to stay inside their house for months at a time for it to be effective. They just won’t do it.

I don’t know what realistic options they have in the US. I hope they find one. It’s indisputable that lockdowns do work if followed.. but it’s also true that the US will never be able to make the majority of their population comply with one. It just doesn’t fit the country’s stories about themselves.

EDIT: In the above, I make a bunch of sweeping generalisations about huge populations of people, and I’m obviously not saying that everyone in those populations think those ways. I’m just pointing out the difference in what America says being American is about, and what Australia says being Australian is about.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#109

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:36 AM UTC

mkl wrote: post #101

icelancer wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. K…

It's possible to close borders without being on an island. I (in NZ) don't think the the island factor is essential. The USA has more active military personnel than almost any other country, enough to make closing borders pretty easy compared with many other places.

It's not clear that it is possible. The obvious point of comparison is China, which has continually had to fight off new waves of infections despite strong lockdowns and strong border restrictions. (A lockdown started just 2 weeks ago covering about as many people as the total population of Australia.)

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#110

Post by threeseed » Sun, Jan 31, 2021, 9:36 AM UTC

sto_hristo wrote: post #95

threeseed wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdowns work. End of story. Melbourne, Australia had a 4-month lockdown which turned an exponentially-rising 500+ cases a day scenario into elimination. Saving thousands of lives. No other place has managed to do something similar and it shows hotel quarantine of foreign arrivals, aggressive contact-tracing, mandatory mask-wearing, social distancing and lockdowns work. The Swedish laissez-faire approach does not.

Australia is big and sparely populated compared to other countries that implemented full lockdowns. Also, it's summer down there, with heat waves, etc. All of this diminishes virus' ability to spread. It's very situational. Australia is not doing anything more special than other countries. You gotta look into the meaning of these numbers and just the value. Lockdowns do work, technically speaking, but not in the long…

1. 71% of Australians live in a handful of cities each of which has very high density relative to the rest of the world.

2. Lockdowns occurred during winter.

3. Australia has effectively eliminated COVID-19 and by having so few cases it allows for targeted lockdowns to work over the long-term e.g. Perth just had 1 case today and is having a short 5-day lockdown - their first in 10 months.