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Europe's Vaccine Disaster

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Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#341

Post by Throwawayaerlei »

libertine wrote: post #303
erkanerol wrote: post #240

As far as I see, some people are questioning why EU didn't prefer Chinese or Russian vaccines. I know only one of the Chinese vaccines: CoronaVac (developed by Sinovac) We still don't have clear phase 3 results. The announced results (by Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia) are so different. It is not easy to trust it at the moment. BUT WE ALREADY VACCINATED ALMOST TWO MILLIONS IN TURKEY :D So the real results are coming... Ju…

Why should we need Chinese or Russian vaccines if a large part of other vaccine production is being made in Europe? Basically USA and UK are hoarding their production and EU production, and EU are fulfilling orders for other parts of the world and not enough for itself - this doesn't seem balanced and EU should act swiftly to stop this bullshit.

The Sputnik V vaccine is by my count the 3rd to have solid and successful Phase III trial results, in December whereas the more modern technology mRNA vaccines got that in November. In 20/20 hindsight where we now know Sanofi/GSK failed hard in their first attempt, and one of of Sputnik V's virus vector doses is being tried with AZ/Oxford to improve efficacy, it would have been a very good idea to also place a bet on it, and following their business model set up one or more production facilities in the EU. Although given how AZ/Oxford's four late in the game EU factories have the very worst productivity of all of their's, would not for a while make a difference.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#342

Post by estaseuropano »

wbillingsley wrote: post #127
jackTheMan wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know how many doses UK is getting over the same period? Does UK also missing 60% of their contract or they are prioritized?

AZ set up a separate supply chain in each major jurisdiction. As I understand it, the EU interfered in its member countries' contracts, delayed them 3 months, delaying the EU supply chain from starting. Ridiculously, from what I can see, in the contract the EU specifically stated they could only supply a few early doses from the UK in 2020 (because after Jan 1 the UK is outside the EU and they are not permitted to us…

The EU didn't interfere in any contracts. Some countries were moving ahead but the small ones were scared to be left out in the cold so pushed for it to be done by the EU instead of the big countries. Then once it was in the EU decision process some individual countries slower the agreement process with worries about price, ...

Either way Brussels would get the blame - as too expensive, buying the wrong ones, not managing to agree quick enough, etc. But it's not as if someone in the commission just said and twiddled thumbs, they were negotiating, then convincing countries to agree, negotiating again, ...

It's easy to point at 'the EU' but the Brussels institutions were asked to do it, rather than took this from someone. The countries were probably happy to have someone to blame later. What I would love to know is which country held things up in council - as the article says, some were doubting mRNA vaccines and others tried to go cheaper and that was the reason for the delay.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#343

Post by estaseuropano »

flembat wrote: post #187
robotmay wrote: post #10

From what I've gathered (unfortunately mostly on Reddit, before this article), Ursula von der Leyen wasn't exactly fondly thought of in Germany before this and somehow keeps managing to fail upwards. Is that accurate? The utterly bonkers u-turn today was a bit of a shocker. For those that haven't seen the news, the European Commission managed to say they were effectively going to establish border controls between the…

I am in the UK and while in the EU I thought we were part of the world's reasonable ethical block, but now from outside it is apparent how badly the EU bullies and intimidates other countries.

I think this is all quite played up in the media. Pressure is on and each time a single EU government - here Macron - says something the UK make it out as the evil EU.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#344

Post by flor1s »

peteretep wrote: post #58
Hunisgung wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the regional price that the IA got was $3 per dose, the commission stepped in trying to get it down to $2. Meanwhile in France, I can do a RT-PCR test paid by the state (around 50$ AFAIK) every other day with no question asked.

My understanding is that the rich countries like France were willing to do a deal on day 1, but the commission stepped in to negotiate for everyone

Having all countries in the EU in the same boat when it comes to vaccines seems like a good thing to me. Now we have this spat between the EU and UK, but if every nation in the EU negotiated by themselves we might have a conflict between EU countries themselves... That's not to say the EU didn't screw up along the way.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#345

Post by estaseuropano »

foepys wrote: post #183
jostmey wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hundreds of millions of dollars? Not even a billion dollars was set aside for vaccines as trillions of dollars are being lost?

That's what many people are getting mad about. Germany wanted to order from Biontech in July 2020 but the EU convinced them to let the EU order for a better "collective bargaining position". But this isn't the time to bargain. Just pay them a few billion Euros. Germany alone is estimated to be currently subsidizing its shut-down economy with around 4 billion Euros a week. Each week is more expensive than what the EU…

This was not the EU pushing, rather the smaller countries were scared that they'd be left out and thus put pressure on the German government to agree to do it jointly.

That said, the main source for the story tha the negotiations were advanced is the German health minister who has skin in the game and reason to try and assign the blame elsewhere...

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#346

Post by MichaelRazum »

HugoDaniel wrote: post #330
MichaelRazum wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Id doesn't matter at all. Facts are: Other countries placed their bets faster and started vaccination faster. First come first serve, don't see anything wrong with it. Maybe the EU should also use shady tactics but it sounds more like a huge corruption and bureaucracy disaster. By the way Biotech offered more vaccines and it was refused (even the CEO of Biotech gave an interview and said it was very confusing how the…

"Huge corruption and bureaucracy disaster" Please provide facts before making unsubstantiated claims. This is how fake news proliferate. Don't contribute to it.

Sure.

Corruption

Ursula von der Leyen. Just the wrong person. I would say it sounds very much like corruption to me.

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-scandal-hanging-over-urs...

Seems that France tried to help it's own company Sanofi.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/macron-accused-of-holding...

Bureaucracy

Eu approved weeks later then others. If every day counts that is in my point of view a bureaucracy disaster.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccine-e...

Here also a claim from Pfilzer about ordering policy as too bureaucratically and slow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step...

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#347

Post by beagle3 »

Ulrich2 wrote: post #313
beagle3 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it is not. Have you actually read either Pfizer’s report or this paper? Looked at their data? The graphs, both in Pfizer’s original report and in this paper, show that past about two weeks, there is almost no change. Please look at the Pfizer graphs and tell me where the great advance is from 50% to 90% Also, if yo actually read the Pfizer report, you’ll notice the 95% is for mild disease - a totally uninteresting…

Well, the solution to this dispute is easy => We just wait another 8 weeks: (1) If am right, then Covid is gone in Israel by end of March. (2) If you are right, Covid will be still a huge problem in in Israel.

I won't hold you to this, even though you are guaranteed to lose in this bet even if you are right - because the trial for 5-12 that would allow to vaccinate them is not expected to yield any data until later than that. Even if you are right, it will still be here in that age group.

Also, there's a nature paper from last week that shows incredible correlation between Sun UVB at 34% of equator and the date that a wave starts. Covid will be gone by June, just like last year, thanks entirely to that effect (and possibly arrive again in Sep/Oct, or not). I'm not interested in meterology, but it's possible that even if I'm right, by end of March covid will be very dim in correlation with UVB exposure.

The amount of data actually attributable to cause and effect is incredibly miniscule. I do data science for a living. The headlines are basically all wrong, most discussions are, and quite a bit of the primary data cannot be right.

added: p.s - Did you actually read the papers before calling me a lier (or after?) or just did it based on headlines. I'm not holding it against you either way, just wondering.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#348

Post by beagle3 »

tsimionescu wrote: post #315
beagle3 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please look at the graphs and data, not the headlines. Nothing magical happens past day 12 from the first vaccine in the Pfizer paper, or day 18 in this paper. Seriously. Look at it. Yes, ynetnews is ynet/yediot. Their reporting of covid is exactly parroting the government with no criticism whatsoever so far. I’m not antivax, I’m provad. 50% is pretty damn good for a first attempt. But everything has become so politi…

Edit: looking at the graph [1] more closely, I understand what you meant - there is no visible change in the slope past day 12 after dose 1 (dose 2 was administered on day 21). So the patient data actually shows that the vaccine achieved its maximum efficacy ~12 days after the 1st dose, not necessarily related to the 2nd dose at all. Original comment: I don't know where you're getting this, but the Pfizer paper [0] c…

Indeed that is what I meant. Thanks for trying to understand even if I wasn't perfectly clear in my wording.

Indeed, maximum efficiency is achieved after 12 days in Pfizer data (and similarly in the Israeli data). That's the reason some countries consider giving just one - they suspect it won't be as-long-lasting without the booster, but that's from prior experience, not anything specific for this vaccine.

I'm incredibly frustrated at the amount of people parroting "yes, two weeks after the first vaccine it's 50%, two weeks after the 2nd it's 95%". Yes, that's what Pfizer said, and I think I managed to reproduce their calculation - and if I did, it is intentionally misleading.

It seems a lot of people are religiously believing the headlines without looking at the publicly available data. I thank you for looking at it.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#349

Post by beagle3 »

yyyk wrote: post #296
beagle3 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please look at the graphs and data, not the headlines. Nothing magical happens past day 12 from the first vaccine in the Pfizer paper, or day 18 in this paper. Seriously. Look at it. Yes, ynetnews is ynet/yediot. Their reporting of covid is exactly parroting the government with no criticism whatsoever so far. I’m not antivax, I’m provad. 50% is pretty damn good for a first attempt. But everything has become so politi…

I'm not referring to the Pfizer research, I'm referring to the Maccabi paper. The data is explicitly for the first dose and not the second. The paper also mentions the effect starts from day 18, not beforehand - maybe you should read it again. What Maccabi did publish on the second dose, it was in a much more encouraging note. Granted, not a peer reviewed paper, that would be difficult given lack of time. Claiming Ye…

The 2nd dose data maccabi sent out is pure PR; It's basically "We finished vaccinating yesterday, and almost no one got sick yet!" which, while true, is the most fudgible statistic ever. I'm ignoring it and waiting for the 2nd paper from Maccabi and the 2nd release from the K(alkstein) Institute - whom I trust more than even the Maccabi medarxiv paper (and I do trust them, about a billion times more than government press releases and the incredibly compliant mass media).

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#350

Post by beagle3 »

dogma1138 wrote: post #308
beagle3 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but do note Israel’s population is 1/50 of Europe, so the logistics of accommodating it (on the producer side) are relatively easy.

Yes, but the GDP of the EU is $19 trillion, the GDP of Israel is $350 billion, that’s 1/50th of the population and 1/54th of the GDP. While I’m aware that things don’t scale the same, and that currently the supply chain has its own hard restrictions on production you can’t argue that paying more won’t allow you to ramp up production faster, this is also what the UK did. The EU could’ve allocated much more funding and…

Most definitely agree. I was only referring to the fact that for Israel it was sufficient to throw more money at the problem to get enough doses; For the entire EU, it is required, but not sufficient condition.
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